BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Variable bet size question

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
boko
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:21 am

Variable bet size question

Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm

Hello
I found a bet simulator but I am a bit confused about the meaning of Variable bet size . The simulator has two option about bet sizes , Fixed and Variable . And the difference about risk of ruin is significant between those two options. Here is an example

Bet Simulator
Starting Bankroll:
10,000.00
Average US Odds:
-110.00
(1.9091)
ROI:
2.00%
(53.43% winrate)
# of Bets:
1,000
Bet Size:
Variable
2.20% to win
2.00%
Calc chance of losing:
100.00%
starting bankroll
Median Ending Bankroll:
12,313.97
Avg Ending Bankroll:
15,326.15
Standard Deviation:
11,141.49
Chance of Loss at End:
38.78%
Chance of 100.00% loss:
0.00%
70% Confidence Interval:
8,796.45-17,238.07

In this simulation the chance of losing the entire bankroll is zero , but when I set it on fixed bet mode the chance of losing the bankroll is 4.3% which is not insignificant . My assumption is that in Variable bet size when I lose percentage of my bankroll I reduce the bet size? Also on the simulator menu it says AVERAGE odds , so I am guessing sometimes the edge is 1% sometimes 3% .In that case Variable bet size could mean Kelly style betting

Return to “Value betting talk”