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Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

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arbusers
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Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« on: March 23, 2021, 05:30:11 AM »
+2

What is value betting?

Simply put, Value Betting is a betting technique where players bet when a bookmaker offers much higher odds than the real probability of an outcome. Anything more than this is, a verbalism.

How to identify Value Betting opportunities?

Not an easy task. The player must be able to identify when the offered odds from a bookmaker are higher than the real probability of an outcome, and thus, represent value. This requires a lot of skill, experience, a detailed knowledge of the sport, and the ability to compile odds in an efficient way. If you don’t have that skill and experience then you have to use certain softwares that will help you identify value.

Manual Value Betting

The player has to use certain criteria to define the correct odds of a betting event. In reality, he has to do a bookmaker’s job to compile his own odds and then search the market to see who is offering higher odds than these, and bet on them. The proper calculation of own odds is highly connected to Value Betting. Probability analysis is a prerequisite to deciding if odds are fair and correspond to the real circumstances or are inaccurate. These calculations require a strong mathematical background. In this context, experienced bettors with a deep knowledge on statistical modelling have developed their own techniques and software to estimate odds and discover Value Betting opportunities. But how would you proceed if you don’t have these skills and experience?

Value Betting services

 Already, some of the alert services (i.e BetBurger, Rebelbetting) used for arbing, also offer a Value Betting version of their products. These softwares receive many factors as inputs, which affect the outcome of a game. The appropriate weights for each factor are estimated based on historical data on each league, and the efficiency of each bookmaker in depth of time. The correct filtering of several factors also plays an important role, if not the most important. The accurate odds serve as the output of an internal process. Some of these techniques and services simply involve comparing odds between soft bookmakers and sharp bookmakers and exchanges to identify value, based on the common notion that sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, and exchanges like Betfair, reflect the true and fair odds for an outcome. However, this is not always correct and could lead to losses because oftentimes a bookmaker can have very strong and reliable information and analysis, not available to the general audience, thus creating a value trap for value bettors.

Robots, aka bots

Many software developers (individuals and companies) have developed Value Betting Bots that detect value and place bets without human intervention. These bots operate in a variety of ways, often focusing on just one bookmaker that fits the criteria. More sophisticated bots focus on markets as a whole, covering 3-4 or even 40 bookmakers at the same time. The most sophisticated and successful bots use solid filtering to maximise performance and avoid the value traps often set by bookmakers. The proper filtering of odds and events is the cornerstone of the operation of each bot, a well kept secret for the bot developers. A reliable bot, should be the dream of every value bettor.

Manual or Automated?

Probably the biggest dilemma in Value Betting, is to choose between manual and automated Value Betting (bots). It is our strong belief that bots operate better than humans. We have risked our own hard-earned capita and precious time to test many reliable projects and services, and we are confident about what we say. We are in position to say that technology helps to achieve optimum levels of value betting without posing an unaffordable cost that could make the whole plan useless. Of course, this depends on various circumstances. However, every player operates under his own specific circumstances, and these circumstances are the very factors that determine the answer. In addition, we believe that manual Value Betting is also profitable, but not to the extend of a good and reliable bot. It goes with out saying, that a value bettor who exploits his local betting shops will not need any bot, but he would definitely need a software that would scan markets and odds.

Live or pregame?

Even though pregame Value Betting offers the luxury of time, it is clear to me that live Value Betting comes with bigger advantages. The identified value is bigger, and the possibility that bookmakers limit your accounts is lower. However, I must warn you that both manual and automated live Value Betting require a bigger effort.

Variance and streaks

Any Value Betting effort is a stray of variance. Do not start Value Betting before completely understanding this. Variance is so strong that would kill your confidence. Over the years, we have seen variance destroying players. Don’t be the victim of variance. Just to give you an idea of how far randomness could and will go, I will simply highlight the record for a roulette for the number of reds in a row. That was documented in the US in 1943 when red came up 32 times in a row. Another monstrous randomness record is reported (but not documented) in the Monte Carlo casino when red came up 39 times in a row. In a nutshell, variance will play an important role in every value betting project. A winning streak would fly you to paradise, but a losing streak will through you to the lions. That means that every value betting project must be based on solid mathematical background. As I am Practising Value Betting for years, I came to the conclusion that mathematical background is not enough. You also need proper filtering upon a satisfactory sample of bets. And of course, paper trading will never be the real thing.

Value Betting Vs Arbing

Value Betting should not be confused with arbing. Many people believe that a Value Bet is already an arb, but this is not entirely true, especially when we talk about early lines when the only odds to be compared are the own odds. The estimation of own odds is an important prerequisite, but not the only one for Value Betting. A large number of qualitative and quantitative factors may affect the outcome of a betting event. Statistical modelling can be implemented to weigh the most important variables and receive ‘accurate’ odds. Staking is an equally important factor, because even the best system can be crashed by a wrong staking plan as all models might be wrong, while some are useful.

Final verdict

I saved the best for last. Does it worth it to practise Value Betting? The answer is definitely yes, provided that you know how to practise it. Value Betting is a money making technique that creates profits much faster than any other smart betting technique (arbing, matched betting, middling, etc). It comes with additional advantages. Your accounts will be limited at a lower speed compared to any other betting technique, and you will not have to make exchanges a co-owner of your business constantly drinking commission rates and fees. Value Betting will also contribute in building a mental capacity that can be used in Value Investing and elsewhere. Consider it as a separation of men from boys.

Here to help

This is the biggest smart gambling community online. Feel free to study what others say, and then make your questions. We are here to help.
Good luck.


« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 03:13:02 PM by arbusers » Logged
B_arber
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B_arber

Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2021, 07:37:58 AM »
0

For me, there are 2 huge problems that I have to fight with, and I know they are both inside me.

1st. Get the psychological strength to stomach a series of losing bets. It is inevitable a losing streak will come sooner or later.

2nd. As value betting comes down to formulas/tactics, find the right formula to identify value.

If I ever find solutions to these problems, then I am ready for Value Betting.

Thank you for this excellent article.
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L
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2021, 09:15:37 PM »
+1

Long losing streaks can be extremely demoralizing. I remember I had a particularly terrible day where all the profit I accumulated in previous month was wiped out instantly... It is very difficult to mentally recover after such blow. Fortunately, I kept going and subsequently the profit went up again.

My advise to those who want to start value betting is to focus on maximizing your EV and turnover. The higher is your EV and the more bets you place the better chance you have to make good long term profit. Also I would advise to treat your bankroll as an investment which you can afford to lose and which you won't need to touch for at least a year.

If you expect to have consistent profit every month then choose arbing instead or place value bets with really high EV. But with this type of betting your accounts won't last for long.
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blizard
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2021, 11:32:58 AM »
+1

This is perfect advice ...  i have made an "experiment" to check that :)  using a very simple programing language (applescript)

I simulated a user that starts with 1 euro bet per game   , playing only 2% value bets (2.04 odds in a 50-50 result every time ) for 18.000 bets (thats like 5 years for 10 bets per day)
If he goes -100 euro he stops (this is his tolerence in  loosing or his bank)
If he is winning he adjust the bet upwards to 1% of the bank ,( for 100 euro profits he goes 2 euros per game )
He NEVER lowers the bet .... he keeps it in the max state of 1% he had when he had reached the maximum profits. (i had also a max bet of 100 that wouldnt go higher)

The results were that there is a 30% chance to loose 100 euros !!!!   that was really suprising to me, meaning 1% is very risky with this value of bets, and also winings and up-downs are huge

--------
This is a small simple of 100 people run (each in parenthesis) and the results they had
left is the maximum money they got , right the money they ended (5 years or stop by losing) , plus some stats i bored to explain ;)

(2361=-125)(2033=1500)(103=-102)(831=348)(19795=17171)(467=-8)(14718=14518)(813=-104)(7394=7217)(2621=2441)
(2439=1618)(15759=12683)(5618=4472)(15453=11869)(1445=1087)(461=113)(7187=2762)(70=-101)(15771=15335)(21743=20843)
(603=380)(121=-100)(9187=7727)(182=-101)(12255=9419)(902=799)(2346=2046)(3301=-103)(14975=14315)(10082=-190)
(12172=10644)(4947=4567)(12644=5340)(1915=1897)(27263=26963)(5137=3268)(25275=23903)(2916=2097)(444=223)(14359=13295)
(954=-104)(18327=13703)(248=-102)(8116=7163)(328=-102)(994=539)(173=-102)(2703=2549)(3450=3208)(3746=2389)
(5125=4017)(24792=24516)(1515=-100)(8938=7578)(2981=2706)(3040=-109)(9248=4282)(1559=1259)(203=-100)(738=-106)
(5657=5169)(1195=-105)(1073=-100)(431=-104)(24846=24106)(12213=9825)(459=-105)(11714=10642)(8585=7272)(153=-100)
(1217=612)(3589=3270)(221=-101)(8245=6125)(14006=13906)(15550=14314)(1956=1476)(11131=7787)(33551=32471)(1656=-111)
(11493=11053)(583=511)(1402=1005)(16133=14313)(411=-105)(11561=9625)(3945=-123)(5503=4037)(234=-103)(633=-100)
(386=-105)(3007=1753)(25149=24925)(11867=11867)(18255=10439)(5325=4969)(2686=-116)(16043=13091)(869=723)(20563=15539)

all=100 >5y=71 <60m=6 <48m=6 <f36m=7 <24m=9 <12m=1 <6m=0 <3m=0 avr=(5725)/10082/32471/33551
dead=29 <-50=0 <0=1 <200=1 <500=3 <1000=5 <3k=15 <6k=11 <10k=10 <25k=23 <50k=2 <100k=0 >100k=0

ps
Making the bet adjustable to 1% of the current bank every time win min bet 1 and max 100 made the people loosing all 100 euros to less than 3% , and that happend mostly in the first year,...
(average profits of all user tho went down by 3 times because of less money bettng)

Anyway , i got my answer that i was value betting to much :) ... 
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Wolfie
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2021, 11:48:51 AM »
0

This is perfect advice ...  i have made an "experiment" to check that :)  using a very simple programing language (applescript)

I simulated a user that starts with 1 euro bet per game   , playing only 2% value bets (2.04 odds in a 50-50 result every time ) for 18.000 bets (thats like 5 years for 10 bets per day)
If he goes -100 euro he stops (this is his tolerence in  loosing or his bank)
If he is winning he adjust the bet upwards to 1% of the bank ,( for 100 euro profits he goes 2 euros per game )
He NEVER lowers the bet .... he keeps it in the max state of 1% he had when he had reached the maximum profits. (i had also a max bet of 100 that wouldnt go higher)

The results were that there is a 30% chance to loose 100 euros !!!!   that was really suprising to me, meaning 1% is very risky with this value of bets, and also winings and up-downs are huge

--------
This is a small simple of 100 people run (each in parenthesis) and the results they had
left is the maximum money they got , right the money they ended (5 years or stop by losing) , plus some stats i bored to explain ;)

(2361=-125)(2033=1500)(103=-102)(831=348)(19795=17171)(467=-8)(14718=14518)(813=-104)(7394=7217)(2621=2441)
(2439=1618)(15759=12683)(5618=4472)(15453=11869)(1445=1087)(461=113)(7187=2762)(70=-101)(15771=15335)(21743=20843)
(603=380)(121=-100)(9187=7727)(182=-101)(12255=9419)(902=799)(2346=2046)(3301=-103)(14975=14315)(10082=-190)
(12172=10644)(4947=4567)(12644=5340)(1915=1897)(27263=26963)(5137=3268)(25275=23903)(2916=2097)(444=223)(14359=13295)
(954=-104)(18327=13703)(248=-102)(8116=7163)(328=-102)(994=539)(173=-102)(2703=2549)(3450=3208)(3746=2389)
(5125=4017)(24792=24516)(1515=-100)(8938=7578)(2981=2706)(3040=-109)(9248=4282)(1559=1259)(203=-100)(738=-106)
(5657=5169)(1195=-105)(1073=-100)(431=-104)(24846=24106)(12213=9825)(459=-105)(11714=10642)(8585=7272)(153=-100)
(1217=612)(3589=3270)(221=-101)(8245=6125)(14006=13906)(15550=14314)(1956=1476)(11131=7787)(33551=32471)(1656=-111)
(11493=11053)(583=511)(1402=1005)(16133=14313)(411=-105)(11561=9625)(3945=-123)(5503=4037)(234=-103)(633=-100)
(386=-105)(3007=1753)(25149=24925)(11867=11867)(18255=10439)(5325=4969)(2686=-116)(16043=13091)(869=723)(20563=15539)

all=100 >5y=71 <60m=6 <48m=6 <f36m=7 <24m=9 <12m=1 <6m=0 <3m=0 avr=(5725)/10082/32471/33551
dead=29 <-50=0 <0=1 <200=1 <500=3 <1000=5 <3k=15 <6k=11 <10k=10 <25k=23 <50k=2 <100k=0 >100k=0

ps
Making the bet adjustable to 1% of the current bank every time win min bet 1 and max 100 made the people loosing all 100 euros to less than 3% , and that happend mostly in the first year,...
(average profits of all user tho went down by 3 times because of less money bettng)

Anyway , i got my answer that i was value betting to much :) ...

But the average value bet for most of people is way more than 2%. If you take this into account i think your results would be too different. And by the way i think optimal way to play is not by flat stake but by flat to win amount. I would suggest to win 0.5% of bankroll for each bet.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2021, 08:30:33 PM »
0

And by the way i think optimal way to play is not by flat stake but by flat to win amount. I would suggest to win 0.5% of bankroll for each bet.

I thought so too but now my stats suggest otherwise. Take a look at the attached image. The "real" row shows my actual betting where I use flat to win staking and "flat" row shows alternative results if I used flat stakes instead. Flat stake results outperform here. However, this could be due to the fact that with flat stakes more money is wagered on longer odds and they usually present higher EV. And indeed from stats we can see that with flat stake average odds and EV increased.


* pic.png (32.46 kB, 1561x853 - viewed 47 times.)
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Wolfie
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2021, 10:11:00 AM »
0

I thought so too but now my stats suggest otherwise. Take a look at the attached image. The "real" row shows my actual betting where I use flat to win staking and "flat" row shows alternative results if I used flat stakes instead. Flat stake results outperform here. However, this could be due to the fact that with flat stakes more money is wagered on longer odds and they usually present higher EV. And indeed from stats we can see that with flat stake average odds and EV increased.

Suggesting flat amounts to win and not flat stake has many reason behind it. One reason is that with flat stake you are more easily filtered by the bookie that you are doing something strange and many times they may filter you as a bot. Another reason is that bookies limits depend on odds too. Usually they have almost fixed to win amount for this reason you can bet less in higher odds. As far as EV, it does not depend on stake, its like you mentioned in your case you find more value in higher odds and for this reason it looks like you have higher EV with different staking plan.
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blizard
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2021, 12:11:07 PM »
0

But the average value bet for most of people is way more than 2%. If you take this into account i think your results would be too different. And by the way i think optimal way to play is not by flat stake but by flat to win amount. I would suggest to win 0.5% of bankroll for each bet.
I tested 0.5% betting amount , for 1000 people playing 18000 bets each, only 6 of them lost the 100 euro bank, huuge difference from 1%.
(in all exampless you have 100 eyro bank . start with 0.5 euro bet for 0.5% testing , upper the bets when profits acure  -  at 500 profit wil make the bet 3 euros  - counting the initial 100 bank ... and NEVER lowers the bet in loosing streak)
 
So its possible to loose 200 times more the amount if you bet in 2% value bets , but its very reasonable...

The bad thing is that compared to 1% , the average profits were 10 times lower !!!! this means  bookies didnt loos so much :) , for the safety we gain.
(I had also tested  some betting percentages that goes up to 4% the more money you win, nut revert back to 0.5 percent when you loose money ..  on these scenarios the average profit skyrockeded, but only small percentages down to 10% of people were geting it .  i might post some examples but better not in this topic)

I dont think a lot of people can bet just 3 euros when they are winning 500 tho  (or 30 at 6000 bank, 5000 of them profits) ...  if you are prepared to loose and have saved some money to start again with low bets, its ok ... we all been there propably :)

ps
all the test are based on 2.04 odds, in a 50-50 gane  ... This is flat win if i understand corectly .
You are right, 1.1 odds or 7.0 will make something different if you have same bet..
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 12:54:00 PM by blizard » Logged
blizard
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2021, 12:50:35 PM »
0

based on the common notion that sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, and exchanges like Betfair, reflect the true and fair odds for an outcome
very helpfull  ... logic and testing say  the smartest players in the exchange for example wil take the value when then see it and the odds will change closer to true.

But does this happen all the time ? if we have a big game, (lets say 70 biggest games per week) where lots of average - bad players play , is it possible for the smart ines to mach them enough ?
I dont think so ... i have been banned for saying this ;) but believe the biggest a game is, the biggest the potensiall value it can have.
The pro  cant risk a lot to  change the odds so much close to true .. and also there you can play bigger bets , no limitation - you probably helping the book by taking  the risk and the value from him

Risk factor when playing huge bets tho ... and where is value in a big market that means lots of people play wrong, and that could be you if not get the value right :)
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 01:57:14 PM by blizard » Logged
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2021, 12:59:21 PM »
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Value Betting with real money(I mean no bets in a few EUR) is really tough, I can't imagine if I lose 10k or 20k in a bad day. I would not feel comfortable, I like arbing that you can sleep well. :)
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blizard
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2021, 01:37:31 PM »
0

Value Betting with real money(I mean no bets in a few EUR) is really tough, I can't imagine if I lose 10k or 20k in a bad day. I would not feel comfortable, I like arbing that you can sleep well. :)
Can you say no when someone  flip a coin and it gives you 2.04 odds every time heads comes ? :)
When you can find lots of them, with all the help from this site... 

A huge game that is havily dependant on what the mass believes may have great value and no pro will risk to much there (others dissagree to that ) ... book evaluation  mistakes, risk managment , its fun and profitable , so many things to explore and will probably last forever

Ps  dangerous  for sure if bad luck and bet too much ... you must be prepared for that .
I prefer to trade or arb when i can ,  but even then i choose to bet  a bit more on value outcome ... plus  small value bets offcourse when i see them
« Last Edit: April 14, 2021, 02:01:52 PM by blizard » Logged
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2021, 08:52:20 PM »
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I thought so too but now my stats suggest otherwise. Take a look at the attached image. The "real" row shows my actual betting where I use flat to win staking and "flat" row shows alternative results if I used flat stakes instead. Flat stake results outperform here. However, this could be due to the fact that with flat stakes more money is wagered on longer odds and they usually present higher EV. And indeed from stats we can see that with flat stake average odds and EV increased.

Suggesting flat amounts to win and not flat stake has many reason behind it. One reason is that with flat stake you are more easily filtered by the bookie that you are doing something strange and many times they may filter you as a bot. Another reason is that bookies limits depend on odds too. Usually they have almost fixed to win amount for this reason you can bet less in higher odds. As far as EV, it does not depend on stake, its like you mentioned in your case you find more value in higher odds and for this reason it looks like you have higher EV with different staking plan.

It depends on a bookie, some bookies have predefined stake buttons where when you click them same flat stake will be automatically entered into betslip. So with such bookies it would not be strange at all to bet flat stakes. Some, like you mention, indeed put limits based on odds and there it would make sense to use flat to win staking. At the end of the day one must analyze his results and develop his own custom strategy which he believes will make him most profit.
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2021, 09:43:22 AM »
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Even though the coin flipping example is a popular one, I believe it is not indicative on what value betting is. It was also used by Ben Graham and Warren Buffet to simplify value investing, but you have to dig far deeper in understanding Value Betting and of course Value Investing.
One of the differences between Value investing and betting, is what I call value traps. We discussed that extensively in the past. Have a look as it might be a decisive factor. Also, filtering is a cornerstone.
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