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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Sat Jan 07, 2023 4:57 pm

The "To win" betting approach when it comes to non-constant odds, in my opinion, hides large potential risks if the risk estimation, related to lower odds, is not computed accurately. Lower the odds, larger the wager amount, provided that you literally make the "To win" approach. In the long run, some wrong decisions on lower odds may kill a big percent of the accumulated profit so far. But if that lower odds, in your analysis, find much value potential, why not experiment with that hypothesis. I personally avoid that approach that way. Advise you to backtest for a very long time, before diggin' in that deeper.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:24 pm

greenunicorn69 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:34 pm
My first value betting project reached 2k bets last week so it's time for a bit of retrospection. I've had a lot of fun and managed to end up with ROI a bit short of 10%. My average odds ended up being 3.08. I would like to thank arbusers, vidablue, wolfie and sawyer whose posts I used as a guideline. I feel like arbusers' analogy comparing value betting to a pendulum perfectly describes it and helped me during losing streaks.

I used "to win" betting system as suggested by several forum members and decided to go for to win 1% of bankroll for each bet. However, after analyzing my data sample I found out that if I just flat bet 1% of my bankroll I would have doubled my profits. I understand that betting "to win" might look less suspicious to bookmakers and there might be issues if bookmakers limit "to win" amount instead of flat bet amount, but if neither of that applies to my project should I switch to flat bets or is there a significant risk of going bust if I do so?
It depends on the bookmakers that you use. If you did the back testing and you would have better results with flat stakes than it just means that the bookmakers that you use have highest EV and wrong odds, more in the higher odds than i low ones.
To win amount is for general purpose value betting, just like bookmakers do.
In the end it is a balance. If you think that the flat stake would not be to much for the bookies that you use in higher odds than just use that. But generally to win amount is better if expected value is the same in all odds low or high.
This is not a law and everyone should adapt to their particular situation. For example you can use to win amount in bookies that make more mistakes in lower odds and flat stakes in the ones that make more mistakes in higher odds. But it depends if they limit you faster too.
So each bookmaker should be studied as a separate business case.
You have a nice ROI till now, i wish you good profits.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:14 pm

arbusers wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:02 pm
However, your post is not enough. I m sure people would love to hear more details on your filtering, the markets that you use, use of software or not, country of origin etc.

I'll try my best to share as much as I am comfortable with. All my value bets are found and placed manually, I don't use any software as most of the bookies I use are not covered by softwares. It also makes wonders when it comes to account longevity at local bookies that are covered by softwares.

I started with markets I know from my arbing projects and added new markets over time. With enough markets like this, software becomes unnecessary as value bets tend to reappear. Having a custom made odds scanner would save me a lot of time though, have yet to figure out how to have it made without revealing the know-how to someone else or having to learn how to code.

For the vast majority of my bets I used local bookies, around 1/4 of the bets were placed in shops. When it comes to filtering I might have been a bit too strict as I wanted to lower the variance to get faster confirmation that I am looking for value at the right place as around 1/3 of my bets didn't have pinnacle/exchange as a sharp reference or I wasn't sure if liquidity was high enough.

If pinny/exchange line was available, I filtered out anything below 400 eur liquidity. Value bets with more than 48 hours till
start were also filtered out unless it was one of the markets I have a decent knowledge of. I only took value bets of 5% and higher when pinny used as sharp reference, 10% when using semi-sharp (at some markets) bookies. I also avoided odds below 1.5 as I wouldn't be able to place high enough bets at some bookies with "to win" stake system. I am planning to tweak these filters to get larger volumes in.

Wolfie wrote:

If you did the back testing and you would have better results with flat stakes than it just means that the bookmakers that you use have highest EV and wrong odds, more in the higher odds than i low ones.
Indeed, I checked my sample again and when I filtered only bets at odds below 2, my ROI dropped to 5%.


Thank you guys for your great insight and the very needed confirmation that flat stakes might be better in this case. I'm gonna give it a try and then report here again.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:54 am

Excellent post, thank you.
I will not ask about your country as I am sure this is the best kept secret of your scheme, but could you give some more info and stats in regards to the odds distribution and the markets you use?
Thank you again.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:13 pm

greenunicorn69 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:14 pm
If pinny/exchange line was available, I filtered out anything below 400 eur liquidity. Value bets with more than 48 hours till
start were also filtered out unless it was one of the markets I have a decent knowledge of. I only took value bets of 5% and higher when pinny used as sharp reference, 10% when using semi-sharp (at some markets) bookies. I also avoided odds below 1.5 as I wouldn't be able to place high enough bets at some bookies with "to win" stake system. I am planning to tweak these filters to get larger volumes in.

You made an excellent post green unicorn. Thank you very much. Could you say how did you figure the above filtering as I fail to understand what is the logic there.
Again, thank you.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:22 am

I can only guess,
He took out the small markets as these would be highly manipulated and Pinnacle might not have a good opinion on them.
He took out the 48h so steam would be in the market and the odds will have lower margin in Pinnacle. Pinnacle sets 2 kind of odds in some markets. Early odds and then when they are confident enough they give their odds with less juice.
The 1.5 limit might be because he doesn't want to enable a bigger part of his capital. A losing streak might destroy his moral and business.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:30 pm

Wolfie wrote: And by the way i think optimal way to play is not by flat stake but by flat to win amount. I would suggest to win 0.5% of bankroll for each bet.
I thought so too but now my stats suggest otherwise. Take a look at the attached image. The "real" row shows my actual betting where I use flat to win staking and "flat" row shows alternative results if I used flat stakes instead. Flat stake results outperform here. However, this could be due to the fact that with flat stakes more money is wagered on longer odds and they usually present higher EV. And indeed from stats we can see that with flat stake average odds and EV increased.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:11 am

L wrote: I thought so too but now my stats suggest otherwise. Take a look at the attached image. The "real" row shows my actual betting where I use flat to win staking and "flat" row shows alternative results if I used flat stakes instead. Flat stake results outperform here. However, this could be due to the fact that with flat stakes more money is wagered on longer odds and they usually present higher EV. And indeed from stats we can see that with flat stake average odds and EV increased.
Suggesting flat amounts to win and not flat stake has many reason behind it. One reason is that with flat stake you are more easily filtered by the bookie that you are doing something strange and many times they may filter you as a bot. Another reason is that bookies limits depend on odds too. Usually they have almost fixed to win amount for this reason you can bet less in higher odds. As far as EV, it does not depend on stake, its like you mentioned in your case you find more value in higher odds and for this reason it looks like you have higher EV with different staking plan.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:40 pm

I read and study your post for value betting and I have a question. Is it really feasible to practice live value betting and maintain a steady income? How can you beat the softwares bookmakers use? It seems to me as an impossible task.
Thank you.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:17 pm

crowned wrote:
Sun Sep 18, 2022 2:40 pm
I read and study your post for value betting and I have a question. Is it really feasible to practice live value betting and maintain a steady income? How can you beat the softwares bookmakers use? It seems to me as an impossible task.
Thank you.
Odds changes in-play a lot due to lot of circumstances, betting. Depends on markets (niche especially) there are always people who are willing to put a bet below bookmakers odds because of multiple circumstances so there is no software who would eliminate value betting for good. Its all about timing of course but if you are fast enough you're gonna find loads of circumstances you are quicker than bookies. More than that, there isnt and wont be perfect software, all of them got weak points you can take advantage of. Also, you need to realise that bookies traders are same people as you, they may get tired, they make mistakes. Its not about asking "is it possible to mantain steady income" but "how much".
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:16 am

So you need to have a niche to beat them successfully. This will require days and days of odds observation and behaviour to find it. Is there any other way?
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:40 am

@ Crowned,
I'm under the impression, that your main occupation doesn't let you spend much time on your research, regarding your betting activities.
On the other hand, you aim to be profitable against betting agencies. Their main concern is to be profitable in the long run and to be wary of the good players. Can you imagine how many departments they have and how much time they invest to give their best?
The good news for you is that when you give your all in some study and dedicate yourself to a particular area, sooner or later some kind of automaticity will emerge that will help you a lot. At this stage, you will make effortless assessments at a glance.
For instance, once I spotted the enormous money in the cricket markets, I needed some time to diggin' into that field. I didn't even know the rules. Now it's possible for me to take a fast look at the coach's decision and make some entry/exit points.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:41 pm

I am afraid our fried Crowned is in an oxymoron situation. He needs the money, but he doesn't have the time to educate him self. Unfortunately there is no solution for that. Even if you decide to use a bot for value betting, it will also require time, because bot developers will not offer any bot to use in a single account. They too prefer scalable business and scalable business request time.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:19 am

Thank you all for your help and advise. You got it right with my situation. I am limboing in this situation for more than a decade. Maybe it is my mistake not going fully for the betting, but it makes no sense thinking about what ifs.
I decided to follow all the advise you provided. First I will search for that niche as described by AlexNotman. Then I will count my options for automated value betting even if my business are not scalable. In the end I will see what can be done in the shops.
Thank you.
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Re: Value Betting. What is it? How to practise it?

Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:43 pm

arbusers wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:30 am
What is value betting?

Simply put, Value Betting is a betting technique where players bet when a bookmaker offers much higher odds than the real probability of an outcome. Anything more than this, is a verbalism.

How to identify Value Betting opportunities?

Not an easy task. The player must be able to identify when the offered odds from a bookmaker are higher than the real probability of an outcome, and thus, represent value. This requires a lot of skill, experience, a detailed knowledge of the sport, and the ability to compile odds in an efficient way. If you don’t have that skill and experience then you have to use certain softwares that will help you identify value.

Manual Value Betting

The player has to use certain criteria to define the correct odds of a betting event. In reality, he has to do a bookmaker’s job to compile his own odds and then search the market to see who is offering higher odds than these, and bet on them. The proper calculation of own odds is highly connected to Value Betting. Probability analysis is a prerequisite to deciding if odds are fair and correspond to the real circumstances or are inaccurate. These calculations require a strong mathematical background. In this context, experienced bettors with a deep knowledge on statistical modelling have developed their own techniques and software to estimate odds and discover Value Betting opportunities. But how would you proceed if you don’t have these skills and experience?

Value Betting services

Already, some of the alert services (i.e BetBurger, Rebelbetting) used for arbing, also offer a Value Betting version of their products. These softwares receive many factors as inputs, which affect the outcome of a game. The appropriate weights for each factor are estimated based on historical data on each league, and the efficiency of each bookmaker in depth of time. The correct filtering of several factors also plays an important role, if not the most important. The accurate odds serve as the output of an internal process. Some of these techniques and services simply involve comparing odds between soft bookmakers and sharp bookmakers and exchanges to identify value, based on the common notion that sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, and exchanges like Betfair, reflect the true and fair odds for an outcome. However, this is not always correct and could lead to losses because oftentimes a bookmaker can have very strong and reliable information and analysis, not available to the general audience, thus creating a value trap for value bettors.

Robots, aka bots

Many software developers (individuals and companies) have developed Value Betting Bots that detect value and place bets without human intervention. These bots operate in a variety of ways, often focusing on just one bookmaker that fits the criteria. More sophisticated bots focus on markets as a whole, covering 3-4 or even 40 bookmakers at the same time. The most sophisticated and successful bots use solid filtering to maximise performance and avoid the value traps often set by bookmakers. The proper filtering of odds and events is the cornerstone of the operation of each bot, a well kept secret for the bot developers. A reliable bot, should be the dream of every value bettor.

Manual or Automated?

Probably the biggest dilemma in Value Betting, is to choose between manual and automated Value Betting (bots). It is our strong belief that bots operate better than humans. We have risked our own hard-earned capital and precious time to test many reliable projects and services, and we are confident about what we say. We are in position to say that technology helps to achieve optimum levels of value betting without posing an unaffordable cost that could make the whole plan useless. Of course, this depends on various circumstances. However, every player operates under his own specific circumstances, and these circumstances are the very factors that determine the answer. In addition, we believe that manual Value Betting is also profitable, but not to the extend of a good and reliable bot. It goes with out saying, that a value bettor who exploits his local betting shops will not need any bot, but he would definitely need a software that would scan markets and odds.

Live or pregame?

Even though pregame Value Betting offers the luxury of time, it is clear to me that live Value Betting comes with bigger advantages. The identified value is bigger, and the possibility that bookmakers limit your accounts is lower. However, I must warn you that both manual and automated live Value Betting require a bigger effort.

Variance and streaks

Any Value Betting effort is a stray of variance. Do not start Value Betting before completely understanding this. Variance is so strong that would kill your confidence. Over the years, we have seen variance destroying players. Don’t be the victim of variance. Just to give you an idea of how far randomness could and will go, I will simply highlight the record for a roulette for the number of reds in a row. That was documented in the US in 1943 when red came up 32 times in a row. Another monstrous randomness record is reported (but not documented) in the Monte Carlo casino when red came up 39 times in a row. In a nutshell, variance will play an important role in every value betting project. A winning streak would fly you to paradise, but a losing streak will through you to the lions. That means that every value betting project must be based on solid mathematical background. As I am Practising Value Betting for years, I came to the conclusion that mathematical background is not enough. You also need proper filtering upon a satisfactory sample of bets. And of course, paper trading will never be the real thing.

Value Betting Vs Arbing

Value Betting should not be confused with arbing. Many people believe that a Value Bet is already an arb, but this is not entirely true, especially when we talk about early lines when the only odds to be compared are the own odds. The estimation of own odds is an important prerequisite, but not the only one for Value Betting. A large number of qualitative and quantitative factors may affect the outcome of a betting event. Statistical modelling can be implemented to weigh the most important variables and receive ‘accurate’ odds. Staking is an equally important factor, because even the best system can be crashed by a wrong staking plan as all models might be wrong, while some are useful.

Final verdict

I saved the best for last. Does it worth it to practise Value Betting? The answer is definitely yes, provided that you know how to practise it. Value Betting is a money making technique that creates profits much faster than any other smart betting technique (arbing, matched betting, middling, etc). It comes with additional advantages. Your accounts will be limited at a lower speed compared to any other betting technique, and you will not have to make exchanges a co-owner of your business constantly drinking commission rates and fees. Value Betting will also contribute in building a mental capacity that can be used in Value Investing and elsewhere. Consider it as a separation of men from boys.

Value Betting and the man in the mirror

Value Betting is not a straight line. It is a pendulum always swinging between unsustainable profits and moderate profits, or even losses. The secret to your success in Value Betting is inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker playing with patient confidence, you can minimise the dangers or take steady advantage of even the worst losing streaks that will definitely occur at some point. It requires nerves of steel to cope with a losing streak in the beginning of an effort. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let swings govern your path in Value Betting. In the end, how your betting action behaves is much equally important to how you behave. 


Here to help

This is the biggest smart gambling community online. Feel free to study what others say, and then make your questions. We are here to help.
Good luck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FzFvB7-Pys&t=10s
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