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Value Betting at the Race Track

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arbitter101
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arbitter101

Value Betting at the Race Track
« on: April 16, 2021, 01:19:32 PM »
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According to arbusers glossary, Value Betting is a betting technique where a player bets against a bookmaker who offers much higher odds than the real probability of an outcome. In other words, you will bet when you will have a much higher chance of winning versus what the odds of the bookmaker.

Value Betting at the Race Track requires understanding of how Value Bets work, as well as how Horse Racing works. A smart bettor will always be in the search of value and in search of finding ways to improve their chance of winning, applying the knowledge at the race track bets, it can generate a very nice income.

In general, in order to get maximal benefit from value betting one must think of a long term strategy, and have some free capital to work with.

An example of value betting against the odds is with the typical coin toss situation:

50/50% chance of either Heads or Tails

The bookmaker gives you 3.00 odds for heads and 1.50 for Tails. This means that if you invest 10$ on heads will return 30$, respectively 15$ on Tails.

In this situation we will of course bet on Heads. If we multiply the probability using the formula (1/3.00) x 100 = 33,33%, this represents that the implied probability (based on the bookmaker odd) of this event is less than the actual probability of this event to happen which we know is 50% if the coin is not damaged in any way. This would represent a great positive value bet.

On the other hand if we calculate Tails we see that (1/1.50) x 100 = 66.67%, based on the fact that the real probability of tails winning is 50% , having a 66.67% probability on this bet would mean that this is a negative value compared to the other.

In the long run the wagers with this positive value will be more profitable.

How to find Value?

One must use mathematical formulas and techniques, also one will need to develop his own formula based on the understanding of the “game”, but there are many factors that need to be taken into consideration like jockey experience, speed, age, historical stats, the racing surface, temperature, etc.

It all boils down to the bettor.

Where to use Value Betting strategies?

There are three efficient ways to Value Bet at the Race Track:

1. By using exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq

Exchanges offer a wide variety of options when it comes to betting and you do not need to worry about restrictions to your account since you are betting versus other players. The exchanges will always win their commission and everyone will be happy. Other particularities which are beneficial to us are that Exchanges offer very high amounts of liquidity (especially Betfair), and that they accept third party softwares. As for commissions, Betfair takes a 5% in UK/Ireland and it will vary depending on the country you are in, as well as it will be diminished based on how high the value of the wager is. Betdaq applies a 2% commission for all its customers.

2. With soft bookmakers like Bwin, Bet365, Ladbrokes, WilliamHill, etc.

Since the steam they receive is not well distributed, they are moving the odds rather slowly. Their style of bookmaking does not allow large bets and therefore only smaller bets are accepted. The advantage of using soft bookmakers like these, is that they are easier to beat because they are adjusting their lines slowly, and also the fact that they are very reliable. The disadvantage is that they will of course restrict your accounts when they will notice that you are beating the heck out of them. And they are indeed fast in identifying sharp action on horses. It is as simple as that.

3. By going to a live race.

Going to a live race is quite interesting and may be an addictive experience, even for non-gamblers. One can understand the sport thoroughly while hanging out with professional punters near the race track and it gives a special feeling to be a part of this phenomena. I will not go into details about how live races work, because as we know, for the moment due to the pandemic and market particularities it is unlikely that you would go to a race track in the near future.


Horse betting syndicates

Astute syndicates mean big business in this field, and it represents a way to winning A LOT of money. The syndicate size can vary, it could have more than 100 players or even 3-4 friends which want to have some fun. The money will be managed by 1 account (usually the leader of the syndicate), who will invest the money. This practice may not be 100% legal due to the fact that it is not allowed for a person to bet on behalf of another, but there are ways to bypass this restriction. However, it came to my attention here in arbusers, that some syndicates found their way to operate legally

Syndicates have a long history especially in horse betting. They have been around for many years, and it pays to be part of one. Simply put if one is not greedy and realises that working together is more beneficial in the long run, it is a great opportunity to join one. Strong syndicates are backed by mathematicians and invest a lot of money on algorithms and bots, it is estimated that more than 20% of the horse bets placed nowadays in the US are computer assisted. For example, if you bet alone on a Pick Six bet, you will have the odds stacked against you because you will be betting against syndicates, so the odds will be way slimmer.

To join a betting syndicate online you can just search the internet and you can find many opportunities and the cost can vary depending on what systems they use and on which market they bet on, but it can be a risky business due to the fact that you do not have live interactions with the individuals and your money will not necessarily be in safe hands. Also, it remains questionable if quality syndicates are open for business.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 01:21:19 PM by arbitter101 » Logged
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