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My first 100 pre-match bets in tennis (comparing with Pinnacle Closing Line)

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Rodrigo
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My first 100 pre-match bets in tennis (comparing with Pinnacle Closing Line)

Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:14 am

Hi guys, I want to share with the forum my thoughts of Pinny CL (especially in tennis) and to hear what do you think about it. Let´s go in matter:

Sport: Tennis

Market: Home-Away (I only bet in underdogs)

Bets: 100 (in one month)

Exchange: Orbit (BIA)

Time: 5-6 hours before the match start.

Stake: 1.7% average of my bankroll.

ROI: 23.73%

Yield: 13.98%

Average odd: 6.29

Pinnacle CL: 6.30


For example Pinny CL was 1.20-5.10, with a 3% of juice, the odds that I calculate instead of 1.26-5.25 is more something like 1.22-5.50, like we know bookies juice is more in the underdog than in the favourite. My concern is that my average odd is almost the same that Pinny CL. I was only lucky to have a 13.98% yield after 100 bets or is something more? It´s a request to beat in average the Pinny CL in a 5% to say something to earn money in a long term? If Pinny is really sharp in pre-match tennis I am betting in the same line than them so when I reach 1000 bets I will be breakeven, I don´t now. Any thoughts with this?

Thanks in advance.


Regards,

Rodrigo
ex-hft
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Re: My first 100 pre-match bets in tennis (comparing with Pinnacle Closing Line)

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:23 am

If I understand correctly, you’re winning 14% on average, for 100 bets. Assuming that your odds are around 2, then this is strongly significant, in statistical terms (about three standard deviations). That’s not to say that the winnings will continue forever: maybe they depend on some factor that will change in the future.

About the Pinny closing line: are you saying that the prices when you bet are the same as the closing line? (In which case you might be sharper than the closing line and should try betting closer to the end, and have more liquidity available), or that the prices that you predict are the same as the close, but that 5-6 hours before they are different? (In which case - great, you are predicting the sharp prices correctly, and taking advantage of the softer prices prior to them)
Rodrigo
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Re: My first 100 pre-match bets in tennis (comparing with Pinnacle Closing Line)

Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:55 pm

Hi, ex-hft, thanks for posting. Indeed in the 100 bets I win 27 and lost 73, the average odd is 6.29. I bet the night before the matchs, sometimes the odds moves to my favour, sometimes against me, but in average in the 100 bets it´s the same than Pinny close. I don´t use BB or RB to do value bets, so I can´t have a big sample to analyse, my concern like I say is that if Pinny is really sharp in tennis pre-match is to be breakeven after a lot of months.

Thanks for the feedback.
ex-hft
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Re: My first 100 pre-match bets in tennis (comparing with Pinnacle Closing Line)

Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:01 pm

Really hard to tell. Statistically speaking this is significant. From a gut feeling perspective it’s not much, so I would still be cautious.

If it were me, I would ask myself two questions:
1) How strongly do I believe that I have a real edge?
2) Are these games the top games in tennis or less interesting ones where the odds are more likely to be somewhat soft?

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