BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets

Value betting on both ways

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Value betting on both ways  (Read 990 times)
GStyle
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 55


View Profile

GStyle

Value betting on both ways
« on: June 17, 2021, 06:58:45 PM »
0

Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 554
Posts: 4819



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2021, 07:12:13 PM »
0

Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.

In this exact case, I would take both proportionally.
Logged
CharlieSheen99
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 13
Posts: 297


View Profile

CharlieSheen99

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2021, 07:16:11 PM »
0

Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.

You have to see like two different bets. This happens to me lots of times. I always catch both bets. Even if after 5-10 minutes, the AH+4.5 is at 1.5 odds and has value.
Logged
GreenScalper
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 44


View Profile

GreenScalper

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2021, 07:44:19 PM »
0

If there's value you bet it, simple as that. Place both bets from the example.
Logged
CharlieSheen99
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 13
Posts: 297


View Profile

CharlieSheen99

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2021, 07:52:39 PM »
0

Imagine an odd 2.10 that pinnacle marks as 1.60. Do you bet on it?
Now, imagine an odd at 2.15, with pinnacle at 1.70. Do you bet on it?

If you bet the first, why not the second?
Logged
GStyle
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 55


View Profile

GStyle

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2021, 08:32:11 PM »
0

Thank you for your answers!

Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.

Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!
Logged
Mtipster
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 41


View Profile

Mtipster

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2021, 09:45:51 PM »
0

Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!
This one is different situation as those 3 bets are dependent of each other. You could end up losing 3× your max stake because one event occurred. 
Logged
CharlieSheen99
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 13
Posts: 297


View Profile

CharlieSheen99

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2021, 11:30:01 PM »
0

Thank you for your answers!

Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.

Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!

Question2: No. Those bets have correlation, so you have to look at this bet like just one bet. So you can bet on just one handicap, or divide your bet in three different bets. One for each handicap.

Question1: you have to do your own risk management. I won't recommend you anything in this aspect.
Logged
GStyle
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 55


View Profile

GStyle

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2021, 09:29:40 AM »
0

Thank you guys for your fast answers!

how about this situation : value on OU and after some minutes, there is value on HC at the same game. Am taking both?
Logged
blizard
Has experience
**

Karma: 2
Posts: 101


View Profile

blizard

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2021, 12:38:23 PM »
0


Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.
1% is dangerous in theory ... its like 20% risk of loosing your bank if play small value bets

To be precise i simulated with a very simple loop program , a bettor that has 100 euros starting bank and  do 1% betting for 18.000 bets ...  all in odds of 2.04 with 50% chances of winning in each one.
(this is a guaranteed 2% value - no mistakes , playing with 1 euro per bet at start  and adjusting upwards if bank gets bigger but never decrease bet amount  , with maximum and final 20 euros bet when bank reaches 2000 )

so , for 1000 players i simulated ... 211 of "them" lost all 100 euros and stoped ... 
(28 lost in first  3600 bets , 63 in next , 48  , 47 , and 25 in last bunch of 18000 bets total.)

Average profit was 3048 euros ... 5 won more than 10000 (13500 max) ,another 131 more than 6000 , another 341 more than 3000 , 273 more than 1000,  and 32 more than zero.

ps ... the winnings are many times bigger than betting 0.5 percent (this is safe) and the risk much more reasonabe than 2% , all these in theory tho.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2021, 12:42:34 PM by blizard » Logged
CharlieSheen99
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 13
Posts: 297


View Profile

CharlieSheen99

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2021, 01:00:47 PM »
0


Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.
1% is dangerous in theory ... its like 20% risk of loosing your bank if play small value bets

To be precise i simulated with a very simple loop program , a bettor that has 100 euros starting bank and  do 1% betting for 18.000 bets ...  all in odds of 2.04 with 50% chances of winning in each one.
(this is a guaranteed 2% value - no mistakes , playing with 1 euro per bet at start  and adjusting upwards if bank gets bigger but never decrease bet amount  , with maximum and final 20 euros bet when bank reaches 2000 )

so , for 1000 players i simulated ... 211 of "them" lost all 100 euros and stoped ... 
(28 lost in first  3600 bets , 63 in next , 48  , 47 , and 25 in last bunch of 18000 bets total.)

Average profit was 3048 euros ... 5 won more than 10000 (13500 max) ,another 131 more than 6000 , another 341 more than 3000 , 273 more than 1000,  and 32 more than zero.

ps ... the winnings are many times bigger than betting 0.5 percent (this is safe) and the risk much more reasonabe than 2% , all these in theory tho.

Are you sure about this maths?
Logged
blizard
Has experience
**

Karma: 2
Posts: 101


View Profile

blizard

Re: Value betting on both ways
« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2021, 01:30:35 PM »
0

its prety simple logic to make mistake , and checked  while building it ... but cant be 100% with this things,

The problem in my test scenario is that is very agresive after any winning streak to immedietly high the bet to reach 1%   ... but on any loosing streak does not lower the bet , meaning practicaly you play with more that 1% many times and never with less.

Still i think is  realistic ,,, after winnings we bet more or spend some money , and then never lower the bet amount in 1% again  according to our bank

Here is the source on apple script (in mac you just run it from script editor) and the language is very basic to understand , athought im beginer and messy  ... but anyone knows a bit can probably check it easy .

* variancebet.txt (7.08 kB - downloaded 20 times.)
« Last Edit: June 18, 2021, 05:34:29 PM by blizard » Logged
Pages: [1]
Print

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
7 Replies
3714 Views
Last post January 02, 2013, 10:10:49 PM
by acika
7 Replies
4421 Views
Last post March 14, 2013, 06:53:43 AM
by MUCHBET
2 Replies
4567 Views
Last post March 28, 2013, 06:11:26 PM
by qbet
14 Replies
6522 Views
Last post May 06, 2013, 05:25:43 PM
by ppintaluba
3 Replies
4276 Views
Last post May 06, 2013, 05:09:42 PM
by Buddha
88 Replies
37528 Views
Last post August 22, 2016, 11:00:56 AM
by luctens
16 Replies
6364 Views
Last post March 15, 2014, 03:10:13 PM
by ArbTrade
5 Replies
12317 Views
Last post April 21, 2014, 09:51:13 AM
by Yngwie/Sawyer
5 Replies
3328 Views
Last post May 06, 2015, 01:06:50 AM
by HeavyRigid
2 Replies
3414 Views
Last post May 23, 2015, 11:13:10 PM
by dealer wins
4 Replies
4792 Views
Last post December 31, 2015, 10:04:50 AM
by OddsProvider.net
13 Replies
6174 Views
Last post March 18, 2020, 01:02:46 PM
by JamesMiller
0 Replies
2682 Views
Last post June 14, 2016, 07:29:08 PM
by maletaja
13 Replies
4978 Views
Last post September 05, 2016, 08:35:01 PM
by luctens
3 Replies
2361 Views
Last post December 15, 2016, 11:30:12 PM
by Bubbles
11 Replies
4999 Views
Last post March 16, 2017, 10:22:10 AM
by Max_Betslayer
15 Replies
6830 Views
Last post June 18, 2017, 08:39:11 PM
by mrbeast87
0 Replies
2408 Views
Last post June 20, 2017, 11:42:07 AM
by Ickythump
5 Replies
5178 Views
Last post July 04, 2017, 07:46:45 PM
by georg41
7 Replies
2925 Views
Last post August 08, 2017, 12:45:54 AM
by karaya
1 Replies
2346 Views
Last post August 24, 2017, 11:46:08 AM
by Malteser
7 Replies
3821 Views
Last post January 29, 2018, 10:27:52 PM
by zako91
27 Replies
6956 Views
Last post December 06, 2018, 11:17:20 PM
by barnstorm
8 Replies
6124 Views
Last post December 21, 2017, 11:22:00 AM
by Malteser
3 Replies
3297 Views
Last post January 11, 2018, 03:34:19 AM
by turbobets
7 Replies
4222 Views
Last post May 15, 2019, 02:11:13 AM
by klopp1
17 Replies
6056 Views
Last post October 05, 2018, 09:46:02 AM
by Wolfie
2 Replies
2671 Views
Last post March 29, 2018, 04:22:35 PM
by golem77
4 Replies
2214 Views
Last post May 15, 2018, 10:08:43 AM
by arbusers
2 Replies
1868 Views
Last post June 04, 2018, 07:06:24 PM
by arberhunterr
6 Replies
2709 Views
Last post January 14, 2019, 01:30:45 PM
by arbMia
0 Replies
1249 Views
Last post December 30, 2018, 12:59:26 PM
by uptight
1 Replies
1542 Views
Last post February 20, 2019, 11:23:19 AM
by jagas
3 Replies
3736 Views
Last post April 10, 2019, 07:43:09 AM
by RebelBetting
6 Replies
2444 Views
Last post April 03, 2019, 11:17:52 AM
by karaya
7 Replies
2169 Views
Last post July 25, 2019, 06:18:06 PM
by arbusers
0 Replies
910 Views
Last post June 13, 2019, 08:37:23 PM
by AlexNotman1
20 Replies
5719 Views
Last post May 10, 2020, 06:33:21 PM
by Blackoutt777
4 Replies
2230 Views
Last post August 04, 2019, 11:56:42 AM
by LazyBird
Value Betting Questions

Started by Downbreak « 1 2 » Value betting talk

17 Replies
3881 Views
Last post November 13, 2019, 11:15:08 AM
by Wolfie
9 Replies
2663 Views
Last post November 19, 2019, 02:16:13 PM
by deivi_747
9 Replies
4524 Views
Last post March 31, 2020, 05:58:10 PM
by Samael
6 Replies
1603 Views
Last post March 31, 2020, 01:29:54 PM
by Samael
0 Replies
1082 Views
Last post March 04, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
by RebelBetting
27 Replies
4223 Views
Last post May 05, 2020, 04:09:10 PM
by kapetan1122
12 Replies
1957 Views
Last post October 01, 2020, 01:35:02 PM
by VidaBlue
1 Replies
1078 Views
Last post October 24, 2020, 10:51:33 PM
by VidaBlue
9 Replies
2952 Views
Last post May 04, 2021, 06:37:21 AM
by neopas
12 Replies
4103 Views
Last post May 05, 2021, 09:43:22 AM
by arbusers
1 Replies
712 Views
Last post May 02, 2021, 03:28:44 PM
by peny22