# Value betting on both ways

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 Author Topic: Value betting on both ways  (Read 990 times)
GStyle
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« on: June 17, 2021, 06:58:45 PM »
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Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.
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arbusers
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2021, 07:12:13 PM »
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Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.

In this exact case, I would take both proportionally.
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CharlieSheen99
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2021, 07:16:11 PM »
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Hello guys,

I have question... lets say that there is a value on -4.5 hc 2.10 odd, so am taking it, but after 5-10 minutes, lets say now there is value on +4.5 hc 2.15odd.. so am i taking those both? or only the first one?

Thank you.

You have to see like two different bets. This happens to me lots of times. I always catch both bets. Even if after 5-10 minutes, the AH+4.5 is at 1.5 odds and has value.
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GreenScalper
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2021, 07:44:19 PM »
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If there's value you bet it, simple as that. Place both bets from the example.
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CharlieSheen99
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2021, 07:52:39 PM »
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Imagine an odd 2.10 that pinnacle marks as 1.60. Do you bet on it?
Now, imagine an odd at 2.15, with pinnacle at 1.70. Do you bet on it?

If you bet the first, why not the second?
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GStyle
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2021, 08:32:11 PM »
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Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.

Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!
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Mtipster
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2021, 09:45:51 PM »
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Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!
This one is different situation as those 3 bets are dependent of each other. You could end up losing 3× your max stake because one event occurred.
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CharlieSheen99
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2021, 11:30:01 PM »
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Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.

Question 2: How much values can i take on a game? for example if there is 3 values on different times, and the three are -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 i must take them all?

Thank you!

Question2: No. Those bets have correlation, so you have to look at this bet like just one bet. So you can bet on just one handicap, or divide your bet in three different bets. One for each handicap.

Question1: you have to do your own risk management. I won't recommend you anything in this aspect.
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GStyle
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« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2021, 09:29:40 AM »
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how about this situation : value on OU and after some minutes, there is value on HC at the same game. Am taking both?
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blizard
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2021, 12:38:23 PM »
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Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.
1% is dangerous in theory ... its like 20% risk of loosing your bank if play small value bets

To be precise i simulated with a very simple loop program , a bettor that has 100 euros starting bank and  do 1% betting for 18.000 bets ...  all in odds of 2.04 with 50% chances of winning in each one.
(this is a guaranteed 2% value - no mistakes , playing with 1 euro per bet at start  and adjusting upwards if bank gets bigger but never decrease bet amount  , with maximum and final 20 euros bet when bank reaches 2000 )

so , for 1000 players i simulated ... 211 of "them" lost all 100 euros and stoped ...
(28 lost in first  3600 bets , 63 in next , 48  , 47 , and 25 in last bunch of 18000 bets total.)

Average profit was 3048 euros ... 5 won more than 10000 (13500 max) ,another 131 more than 6000 , another 341 more than 3000 , 273 more than 1000,  and 32 more than zero.

ps ... the winnings are many times bigger than betting 0.5 percent (this is safe) and the risk much more reasonabe than 2% , all these in theory tho.
 « Last Edit: June 18, 2021, 12:42:34 PM by blizard » Logged
CharlieSheen99
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2021, 01:00:47 PM »
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Question 1: Am using 1% of the bank that i have started with, am taking odds 2.00+ only, and am using only the 1% of the started bank, is that problem? for example if my bank is 100 and i won 105, am still betting 1euro.
1% is dangerous in theory ... its like 20% risk of loosing your bank if play small value bets

To be precise i simulated with a very simple loop program , a bettor that has 100 euros starting bank and  do 1% betting for 18.000 bets ...  all in odds of 2.04 with 50% chances of winning in each one.
(this is a guaranteed 2% value - no mistakes , playing with 1 euro per bet at start  and adjusting upwards if bank gets bigger but never decrease bet amount  , with maximum and final 20 euros bet when bank reaches 2000 )

so , for 1000 players i simulated ... 211 of "them" lost all 100 euros and stoped ...
(28 lost in first  3600 bets , 63 in next , 48  , 47 , and 25 in last bunch of 18000 bets total.)

Average profit was 3048 euros ... 5 won more than 10000 (13500 max) ,another 131 more than 6000 , another 341 more than 3000 , 273 more than 1000,  and 32 more than zero.

ps ... the winnings are many times bigger than betting 0.5 percent (this is safe) and the risk much more reasonabe than 2% , all these in theory tho.

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blizard
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2021, 01:30:35 PM »
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its prety simple logic to make mistake , and checked  while building it ... but cant be 100% with this things,

The problem in my test scenario is that is very agresive after any winning streak to immedietly high the bet to reach 1%   ... but on any loosing streak does not lower the bet , meaning practicaly you play with more that 1% many times and never with less.

Still i think is  realistic ,,, after winnings we bet more or spend some money , and then never lower the bet amount in 1% again  according to our bank

Here is the source on apple script (in mac you just run it from script editor) and the language is very basic to understand , athought im beginer and messy  ... but anyone knows a bit can probably check it easy .
 variancebet.txt (7.08 kB - downloaded 20 times.) « Last Edit: June 18, 2021, 05:34:29 PM by blizard » Logged
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