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About skewed odds. Opportunities for real value

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arb12
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arb12

About skewed odds. Opportunities for real value
« on: July 17, 2021, 03:00:01 PM »
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Hello mates,
Sometimes it seems there are published non relevant odds. From time to time there are some odds, not correspond to real probabilities. Bookmakers firms are well informed ones and for sure put their probabilities converted to odds (minus their margin). We've all withessed starting odds, changed due to team news, last resent team form, injuries, changed starting lists, the match value (first or second leg, dead rubber or viable one), city or national derby or not, weather conditions etc. Of course, the bookies tend to balance their wagers well. Some of these starting non relevant odds are so strange, because there are not visible reasons behind these ones. There are several ones every month. Maybe large strange bets prematch? For instance, today in Sweden held the soccer match between the bottom fish Akropolis vs top team Norrby - Superettan soccer division. Starting odds in 1x2 market were in range 2.7-3.2-2.7 several days ago and closing odds were in range 3-3.2-2.5 today. The final result is 0:3. The analysis shows us big top team supremacy in all the  indicators. Me personally was astonished by closing odds there. I've not found logic behind these odds. Maybe in these matches there are  some big value, but again there are not logical reasons for these closing odds. I've opened a small position there and I've caught a big value. When starting non relevant odds and closing odds have small difference in time with  non visible logic behind that, there are some value opportunities. But we can't view bookies point of view - are there some prematch bets in Asia, or possibility fixed match, or something else. Value trap maybe? When it comes to famous top leagues, I've spotted no so big value in similar opportunities.What are your observations in similar cases,  and your approach? Mine is cautious wager if there is a real value, determined by me, but bookies are well informed ones and I am curious when the final result is non related to the prematch odds, how is that possible?
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 05:28:19 PM by arb12 » Logged
AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Re: About skewed odds. Opportunities for real value
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2021, 07:07:59 PM »
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I am curious when the final result is non related to the prematch odds, how is that possible?

So according to your logic, if there are pre-ko odds around 3s for a draw if game ends 0:3 (or whatever high scoring for one side) odds were wrong/game was fixed etc? Cause when even teams play there MUST BE close match?
Simply, bet these games only according to your logic and you will see after 1k matches.

You ask how is this possible? There was around 4% for 0:3 so yeah it is possible and such results will happen quite often, doesnt matter if closing odds for winning team are evens, 3s or 4s.
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arb12
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arb12

Re: About skewed odds. Opportunities for real value
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2021, 10:32:43 PM »
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Hello AlexNotman1,
At first, thanks for your opinion :). I use statistical data and appreciate your observation related to these results - given% probability for given score spotted by you in the long term.

Let me clarify the words you've quoted above.
For simplicity reasons let's assume there is non derby match. Big favourite vs weak underdog.
Heavy favourites in supreme form, without injuries, no closer important matches for them, no team conflicts or sold players, no other important facts against them versus any of the weakest underdog with lots of problems etc etc etc.  At a first look the assessments for the favs and the dogs of the big auditorium are in relation to the bookies odds . Thereafter they all shape the odds by some fluctuations between opening and close.
In my long run observations, sometimes there are opening odds and often almost the same closing odds, based on non visible reasons for large auditorium. Sometimes the gap between the big public opening assessment and the bookies odds is followed by "unexpected" outcome.That maybe means big insiders, bookies and other factors had some info, hidden from others.  Or maybe, pure sporting result. Of course, rarer sporting outcomes occur according to probability theory, expressed by odds minus bookies margin.

But what's the case when discrepancies between public opinion about opening odds and bookies odds are followed by outcome expected by initial public analysis? My questions in the previous post are regarding to these rare occasions. Implied chance for given outcome is not the real. When our compiled odds are better and bookies odds have much value for us.
Thanks.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 11:55:54 PM by arb12 » Logged
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