I don't get it

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DaanK
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DaanK

I don't get it
« on: July 21, 2021, 07:38:29 PM »
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Hi,

So I've been reading into arbing for a while now, and slowly making some accounts on different bookies. But I do see a lot of different opinions about arbing. A lot about profitability and sustainability.

I want to work my way up, slowly gaining more betting power. I want to do it on the side, no intentions on doing it as a main job. So that's my point of view, or at least of my situation.

There is a thing about finding popular and unpopular arbs. Popular are the ones that are given for free, and the ones on cheap arb finding software. Wheres the unpopular arbs, the ones that are on the really expensive software platforms and with really extremely complicated arb strategies. Is it really impossible to start with 300 dollars spread on 20-40 bookies, and a 30 dollar arb finder to gain wealth on the accounts? And after growing the accounts to switch to a more expensive arb finder, and after that to develop your own? Because there are a lot of people saying the golden time of arbing is over, and there is no more money to be made. But there are still arb possibilities available, so I guess the only real struggle is to keep the accounts alive?

Also there is a lot of discussion about the way to hide yourself for the bookies. (I can't really think of anything more than betting 0.5 dollar bets on regular matches without arbs, just to get some randomness on your account, and then putting 50-100 dollars (as a starting point) on real arbs. Rounding the arbs up or down to 5 dollars/euros.) What can you do more than I can think of? I can't really think of a other strategy that increases the randomness of a account.

Also there is a lot of discussion about pre match and live arbing. Is it really that easy for a bookie to tell that you are arbing pre match? And "much" more difficult for them on a live arb?

I hope to hear from you. It would really help me a lot, because I am trying to figure my own strategy out, but I keep struggling with these questions.

Thanks in advance.

Daank
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arb12
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Re: I don't get it
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2021, 12:23:43 AM »
+1

Hello,
I believe you are on your semi-pro way, seeking for slow profit and steady gaining experience, and eventually aiming to switch full pro mode some day.
Good thing in your story is that you have no deadline. 
Not too good things-you know the arbing environment is worsened last years. Bookies tend to tolerate recreational players. There are big guys with financial/statistical background and HFT infrastructure, big amounts and fast bots. Big persons with specific inner info. Etc. Simply observe the last years events.
I've seen in-play arbs let's say lasting from milliseconds to a half of a second (rarely more)  in specific circumstances during the games. I'm talking for big and reliable bookies and exchanges only. Those well armed pros through bots and API access will beat you. Not to mention in-house bots in exchanges.
Well, you may also give a try combination prematch(lower margin) and in-play(higher margin) arbing. Prematch good arbing games by you and bookies limits are coming.
A hint only-you may pursue value betting and trading/hedging approaches if you are a math/statistics guy. But you have to observe and compare lots of patterns and data and to react quickly. If you have minimum a decade observations, you may spot when the big picture is not the same.
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Wolfie
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Re: I don't get it
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2021, 10:35:33 AM »
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It is nice to see some newcomers that do their homework before asking questions.
Since you are not going full time you will have more time on weekends so you will start mostly with football. Arbmate is cheap and good for football. You can use that.
It is better to start with prematch since you have no experience. Try it for at least 80 hours of arbing. After that if you are a quick learner you can go directly to live arbing. You can get the time you need there and if you want to go full time than you will have to change alert service or best if its custom made. And probably you will have to go at the value betting side after some time. For the bookies question is all trial and error. Newcomers can make it too, even in today conditions, dont get discouraged. Good luck !
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VidaBlue
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Re: I don't get it
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2021, 11:35:04 AM »
+1

Is it really impossible to start with 300 dollars spread on 20-40 bookies, and a 30 dollar arb finder to gain wealth on the accounts?

Sure, but as long as you take fully advantage of the deposit and reloading bonuses often offered by the bookmakers. If they for instance offer you a 100% bonus on up to a 100 euro first deposit, it would be a shame only to deposit 50 euro, because your account may be limited eventually in both circumstances and you may miss out on 50 euros if you complete the rollover requirement.

Bonuses can really give you a head start and you can multiply your bankroll rapidly in the beginning, if you start out small. This is the very first stage in my opinion and the reason why you can start with a small bankroll. If you don't have the bankroll to effectively spread on 20-40 bookies, do the spread on a few bookies at a time. Once a bookie limits you, thank for the acquaintance and for the opportunity to transfer the remaining funds to a new bookmaker. When you're done with all the bonuses, you should have experience and a bankroll substantial enough to continue on the next stages
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arbusers
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Re: I don't get it
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2021, 07:23:21 PM »
+1

How about having a look at value betting instead of arbing?
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DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2021, 06:52:54 AM »
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It is nice to see some newcomers that do their homework before asking questions.
Since you are not going full time you will have more time on weekends so you will start mostly with football. Arbmate is cheap and good for football. You can use that.
It is better to start with prematch since you have no experience. Try it for at least 80 hours of arbing. After that if you are a quick learner you can go directly to live arbing. You can get the time you need there and if you want to go full time than you will have to change alert service or best if its custom made. And probably you will have to go at the value betting side after some time. For the bookies question is all trial and error. Newcomers can make it too, even in today conditions, dont get discouraged. Good luck !

Yes, that was one of my struggles. Is the arbing enviroment as worse as everyone describes? And prematch arbing is really easy for the bookies to notice you isn't it?

I was thinking about combing arbing and value betting, because they both have different growth curves. Currently I am having a long term portfolio, and a swing trading strategy on stocks. The swing trading gives much higher returns, but with bigger drawdowns. My long term portfolio doesn't grow really fast, but gives me a slow and steady growth. Combing these two strategies (and more strategies coming) it gives a faster account growth, but with a smaller drawdown if I were to focus on swing trading only.

Thats what I was thinking about: Combining two strategies to get a little faster growth, but with a more steady grow curve. 

Would it be a good thing to have two strategies running at the same time? It should make the betting pattern a bit more confusing for the bookies to keep track of what I am doing.

 Thanks in advance!
« Last Edit: July 23, 2021, 07:05:30 AM by DaanK » Logged
DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2021, 07:04:32 AM »
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Hello,
I believe you are on your semi-pro way, seeking for slow profit and steady gaining experience, and eventually aiming to switch full pro mode some day.
Good thing in your story is that you have no deadline. 
Not too good things-you know the arbing environment is worsened last years. Bookies tend to tolerate recreational players. There are big guys with financial/statistical background and HFT infrastructure, big amounts and fast bots. Big persons with specific inner info. Etc. Simply observe the last years events.
I've seen in-play arbs let's say lasting from milliseconds to a half of a second (rarely more)  in specific circumstances during the games. I'm talking for big and reliable bookies and exchanges only. Those well armed pros through bots and API access will beat you. Not to mention in-house bots in exchanges.
Well, you may also give a try combination prematch(lower margin) and in-play(higher margin) arbing. Prematch good arbing games by you and bookies limits are coming.
A hint only-you may pursue value betting and trading/hedging approaches if you are a math/statistics guy. But you have to observe and compare lots of patterns and data and to react quickly. If you have minimum a decade observations, you may spot when the big picture is not the same.

Hi,

Yes, I am starting to study finance later this year, and I like my statistics. I have some trading experience, and I have some algorithms running on the stock market. I do not have any intentions on making programs that will do some hft betting or such. I just want to have it on the sides, getting some arb bets in, maybe 1-5 a day should be plenty for a steady account growth. 

It shouldn't be a problem if the hft guys are winning from me. But about the patterns that I need to discover: when arbing or value betting you only need a arb/valuebet seeker/software to find the opportunities, right? What are the patterns that need to be discoverd, and where are the patterns for? Because the arb/valulebet opertunity is already found by some piece of software.

Thanks in advance!

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DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2021, 07:44:41 AM »
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Is it really impossible to start with 300 dollars spread on 20-40 bookies, and a 30 dollar arb finder to gain wealth on the accounts?

Sure, but as long as you take fully advantage of the deposit and reloading bonuses often offered by the bookmakers. If they for instance offer you a 100% bonus on up to a 100 euro first deposit, it would be a shame only to deposit 50 euro, because your account may be limited eventually in both circumstances and you may miss out on 50 euros if you complete the rollover requirement.

Bonuses can really give you a head start and you can multiply your bankroll rapidly in the beginning, if you start out small. This is the very first stage in my opinion and the reason why you can start with a small bankroll. If you don't have the bankroll to effectively spread on 20-40 bookies, do the spread on a few bookies at a time. Once a bookie limits you, thank for the acquaintance and for the opportunity to transfer the remaining funds to a new bookmaker. When you're done with all the bonuses, you should have experience and a bankroll substantial enough to continue on the next stages

That should be better I think! Having a limit of bookies (5-10) with a bit more capital should give a great head start indeed. Are these limitations coming really fast? Or are they most of the times after the bonuses are given?

Also I have had a thought about another thing: Arb finding software has for example 50 bookies that are supported. When I am arbing prematch, and thus a faster account closure, I will go through all the bookies within a year (for example). After that I need to be really creative to make more accounts on the bookies sites. Any tips about multiaccounting?

Thanks in advance!
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DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2021, 08:08:04 AM »
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How about having a look at value betting instead of arbing?

I was thinking about a multi strategy by intergrading some valuebetting between the arbs. This makes it for the bookie also more difficult to see that you are arbing(in my opinion, please tell me if I am completely wrong).

This make the growth of the accounts also steady, but a faster growth than solely arbing, but with a smaller drawdown.

Do you have any tips when you have run out of bookies on signal software?

Thanks in advance!
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2021, 07:41:17 PM »
+1

I was thinking about a multi strategy by intergrading some valuebetting between the arbs. This makes it for the bookie also more difficult to see that you are arbing(in my opinion, please tell me if I am completely wrong).

This make the growth of the accounts also steady, but a faster growth than solely arbing, but with a smaller drawdown.

Do you have any tips when you have run out of bookies on signal software?

Thanks in advance!

More live value betting will help mask your activities and your real face from bookmakers. I really dont see any reason why you should focus on arbing and have value betting as a side profit. How about the exact opposite way, where you have more value betting and less arbing?

Holland is expected to be the next eldorado so those who position themselves smartly will only have to gain.
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DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2021, 07:54:11 PM »
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I was thinking about a multi strategy by intergrading some valuebetting between the arbs. This makes it for the bookie also more difficult to see that you are arbing(in my opinion, please tell me if I am completely wrong).

This make the growth of the accounts also steady, but a faster growth than solely arbing, but with a smaller drawdown.

Do you have any tips when you have run out of bookies on signal software?

Thanks in advance!

More live value betting will help mask your activities and your real face from bookmakers. I really dont see any reason why you should focus on arbing and have value betting as a side profit. How about the exact opposite way, where you have more value betting and less arbing?

Holland is expected to be the next eldorado so those who position themselves smartly will only have to gain.

Yes, so live value betting should be my main focus. And some arbing in between things.

What do you mean by "the new eldorado"? Do you mean NL will be great because of that change in the law that is coming in oktober?

I hope to hear from you!

Thanks in advance!
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2021, 04:05:36 AM »
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The forum does not support P2P communication.
Whatever info you would like to share, should be shared with all members.
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DaanK
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DaanK

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2021, 07:50:27 AM »
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The forum does not support P2P communication.
Whatever info you would like to share, should be shared with all members.

Alright. Sorry!
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arb12
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arb12

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2021, 10:34:32 AM »
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@DaanK,
The short story so far: the old arbusers noticed end of the golden era and nowadays classical arbing ( 2000's till maybe 2010) is limited or dying in terms of big constant revenues - when the bookies big data flag high rollers arbusers, there are kicked players, confiscated amounts, lowering odds for them, limited accounts during rollovers, strange investigations, strange and long repeating KYC procedures, withdrawal delays and many many more.

For you now on: Forget bookies targeting recreational players.The big Asian style bookies, some Carribean offshore bookies and some exchanges maybe offer limited pitch for you, but problems are not excluded. As far as I know, even Pinny and BF exchange make problems. If you have access to SBO, IBC and SING - they're voidind some legs of some arbs, resulting in big drawdowns for you.

Members of that forum don't aim to cancel you from arbing, they simply show possible pitfalls sharing their experience so far. If you're digging in arbing thing, maybe you'll invent original know-how about arbing, who knows?
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cigo
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cigo

Re: I don't get it
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2021, 11:07:05 AM »
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I knew people making 5 and 6 digit number on softs per month (no one can do this in this times). Still anyone can do this?
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