Arbusers

Yaeshawn wrote: Hi fellow arbers/valuebettors


From what i am reading in other forums and especially in this one from bettor's experiences ,testing methods and gathered information , is that the good old arbing days are over due to EU soft bookmakers limiting way too fast and not allowing

bettors to bet heavy ,resulting in one burnt ID.

However , in-play value betting seems to be the only viable,unique method to keep one's account a decent amount of time , extracting a juicy proft from bookies (if we take into consideration that in-play value betting is harder for bookies to detect

especially on big betting days and they have inarguably higher betting limits.)

I live in Southern Europe and i must confess that bookies keep a very hostile attitude -atleast where i am from- so having a long lasting , with decent limits account is vital for our betting existence.

The way i see it , in-play value betting can be achieved by leaving the arbitrage bet uncovered...meaning that we should not cover the "sharp" side of our bet on the Asians and let it run in the Soft books.That way in the long haul we will be many

units /+ on profit because , as it has been proven on other threads in this forum , the sharp side ends up reducing our long term gains.

This of course sounds very easy to say , but we have to avoid 2 traps :

1) the psychological burden of having big loss streaks and losing money time to time ( especially in the beginning this could be a real downside leading to quick failure of the project)

2) the correct betting stakes ( a small percentage of our bankroll that will be followed with determination and discipline which depending on your gains ,shall scale to give us more profits without the probability of losing off our budget of course)

I would like to exchange experiences and knowledge between us bettors and hope you all leave a piece of info down this thread to help each other.



Thank you in advance!

leonbet wrote: Hello dear Yaeshawn, nice post about your strategy and your experiences with value betting, but I see a few weaknesses in this strategy.According to your betting model, you take the side of an arbitrage situation in the soft bookmaker without covering the bet in sharp (please forgive me if I misunderstood).My experience is that a strategy based on such an approach is too volatile and ineffective.Without going into technical details, because it would be too long a post, I will say that with such a betting model you take a lot of false value bets and miss a lot of real value bets, for the simple reason that they did not enter an arbitration situation.Here we come to the two traps you pointed out.If you have the right betting model, and not just take the soft side of arbitrage bets, you will significantly reduce the number of false values (about 2% of all bets taken) and significantly increase the total number of bets taken daily, monthly, annually and such as.This way, you will avoid both traps you are writing about.It will dramatically reduce the likelihood of long losing streaks due to the fact that you have about 98% real values.Of course, there is no way to completely eliminate this possibility, and such series will happen but it will be very, very rare.This also leads to the removal of the other trap, when the probability of a long losing streak is minimized, you can significantly increase the size of your bet.As practice shows, two main types of bet size are used for the value bets.The first type is Kelly's criterion or some similar modification, I am not a supporter of this approach because the size of the bet depends on the size of the value.And as experience shows, the amount of value rarely has to do with the real probability of a single event happening.Here I may meet many opponents of this statement of mine, but I will not go into details and mathematical proofs now, again because the post would become very long.The second main approach is a fixed percentage of bankroll.it is widely recommended between 1% and 2.5%.I would also recommend 1% to any beginner and to anyone who bases their strategy on simple soft side making without coverage.But in this post I'm talking about the right strategy, which as I said eliminates some weaknesses in value betting.In such a situation, the amount of your bet could be 3% - 5%.Personally, I use 3% for small leagues and 5% for big leagues.Regarding the right strategy for finding value bets, I would say that there are also a few basic ways.1. Own knowledge of certain sports / leagues, 2. Use of proven tipsters. 3. Analysis of the movement of market prices.I will not dwell on the first two ways because I myself am not an expert in any sport, and good tipsters are a very delicate product. .Market price analysis is relatively simple in concept, easy to apply and an inexpensive way to build the right betting strategy.What is fundamental to this betting model, and what many value bettors miss, is precisely the analysis of odds movement.The odds movement alone is not enough to take a bet.In order to have the right value betting strategy it is important to know why the odds is moving, and most importantly what is the cash flow that is moving the odds.The most important thing in building the right value betting model is to monitor the charts of market price movements and their proper evaluation.That is, our work is closer in nature to the work of stock traders than to the work of sports tipsters.

I wish you success and fruitful work!

leonbet wrote: Hello dear Yaeshawn, nice post about your strategy and your experiences with value betting, but I see a few weaknesses in this strategy.According to your betting model, you take the side of an arbitrage situation in the soft bookmaker without covering the bet in sharp (please forgive me if I misunderstood).My experience is that a strategy based on such an approach is too volatile and ineffective.Without going into technical details, because it would be too long a post, I will say that with such a betting model you take a lot of false value bets and miss a lot of real value bets, for the simple reason that they did not enter an arbitration situation.Here we come to the two traps you pointed out.If you have the right betting model, and not just take the soft side of arbitrage bets, you will significantly reduce the number of false values (about 2% of all bets taken) and significantly increase the total number of bets taken daily, monthly, annually and such as.This way, you will avoid both traps you are writing about.It will dramatically reduce the likelihood of long losing streaks due to the fact that you have about 98% real values.Of course, there is no way to completely eliminate this possibility, and such series will happen but it will be very, very rare.This also leads to the removal of the other trap, when the probability of a long losing streak is minimized, you can significantly increase the size of your bet.As practice shows, two main types of bet size are used for the value bets.The first type is Kelly's criterion or some similar modification, I am not a supporter of this approach because the size of the bet depends on the size of the value.And as experience shows, the amount of value rarely has to do with the real probability of a single event happening.Here I may meet many opponents of this statement of mine, but I will not go into details and mathematical proofs now, again because the post would become very long.The second main approach is a fixed percentage of bankroll.it is widely recommended between 1% and 2.5%.I would also recommend 1% to any beginner and to anyone who bases their strategy on simple soft side making without coverage.But in this post I'm talking about the right strategy, which as I said eliminates some weaknesses in value betting.In such a situation, the amount of your bet could be 3% - 5%.Personally, I use 3% for small leagues and 5% for big leagues.Regarding the right strategy for finding value bets, I would say that there are also a few basic ways.1. Own knowledge of certain sports / leagues, 2. Use of proven tipsters. 3. Analysis of the movement of market prices.I will not dwell on the first two ways because I myself am not an expert in any sport, and good tipsters are a very delicate product. .Market price analysis is relatively simple in concept, easy to apply and an inexpensive way to build the right betting strategy.What is fundamental to this betting model, and what many value bettors miss, is precisely the analysis of odds movement.The odds movement alone is not enough to take a bet.In order to have the right value betting strategy it is important to know why the odds is moving, and most importantly what is the cash flow that is moving the odds.The most important thing in building the right value betting model is to monitor the charts of market price movements and their proper evaluation.That is, our work is closer in nature to the work of stock traders than to the work of sports tipsters.

I wish you success and fruitful work!

leonbet wrote: Hello dear Yaeshawn, nice post about your strategy and your experiences with value betting, but I see a few weaknesses in this strategy.According to your betting model, you take the side of an arbitrage situation in the soft bookmaker without covering the bet in sharp (please forgive me if I misunderstood).My experience is that a strategy based on such an approach is too volatile and ineffective.Without going into technical details, because it would be too long a post, I will say that with such a betting model you take a lot of false value bets and miss a lot of real value bets, for the simple reason that they did not enter an arbitration situation.Here we come to the two traps you pointed out.If you have the right betting model, and not just take the soft side of arbitrage bets, you will significantly reduce the number of false values (about 2% of all bets taken) and significantly increase the total number of bets taken daily, monthly, annually and such as.This way, you will avoid both traps you are writing about.It will dramatically reduce the likelihood of long losing streaks due to the fact that you have about 98% real values.Of course, there is no way to completely eliminate this possibility, and such series will happen but it will be very, very rare.This also leads to the removal of the other trap, when the probability of a long losing streak is minimized, you can significantly increase the size of your bet.As practice shows, two main types of bet size are used for the value bets.The first type is Kelly's criterion or some similar modification, I am not a supporter of this approach because the size of the bet depends on the size of the value.And as experience shows, the amount of value rarely has to do with the real probability of a single event happening.Here I may meet many opponents of this statement of mine, but I will not go into details and mathematical proofs now, again because the post would become very long.The second main approach is a fixed percentage of bankroll.it is widely recommended between 1% and 2.5%.I would also recommend 1% to any beginner and to anyone who bases their strategy on simple soft side making without coverage.But in this post I'm talking about the right strategy, which as I said eliminates some weaknesses in value betting.In such a situation, the amount of your bet could be 3% - 5%.Personally, I use 3% for small leagues and 5% for big leagues.Regarding the right strategy for finding value bets, I would say that there are also a few basic ways.1. Own knowledge of certain sports / leagues, 2. Use of proven tipsters. 3. Analysis of the movement of market prices.I will not dwell on the first two ways because I myself am not an expert in any sport, and good tipsters are a very delicate product. .Market price analysis is relatively simple in concept, easy to apply and an inexpensive way to build the right betting strategy.What is fundamental to this betting model, and what many value bettors miss, is precisely the analysis of odds movement.The odds movement alone is not enough to take a bet.In order to have the right value betting strategy it is important to know why the odds is moving, and most importantly what is the cash flow that is moving the odds.The most important thing in building the right value betting model is to monitor the charts of market price movements and their proper evaluation.That is, our work is closer in nature to the work of stock traders than to the work of sports tipsters.

I wish you success and fruitful work!

Yaeshawn wrote: Hi Sandica9

Why do you think that?


Thank you for your response!