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Is it worth arbing at brokers?

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arb12
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Tue Nov 19, 2024 5:32 pm

Ste wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2024 9:15 am
...
EDIT: i googled and found just .bet and justbet .co... i dont know which is the one you suggested

Sometimes the professionals here joke around. It helps lighten the tense work atmosphere. I appreciate your joke.
If a rookie is reading the topic, naturally the most valuable thing about using JustBet here is not their Costa Rican license, but the BM/Cris as a solid entity behind them.
Ste
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Tue Nov 19, 2024 8:06 pm

actually it wasn't a joke, i just found the first 2 links on google and i thought they were both bookies... but now i checked them and i found out that one of them is not ;D
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Nov 20, 2024 2:13 am

arb12 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:31 pm
notis58 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2024 8:04 pm
arb12 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:41 pm

Try using JustBet, it's theirs.
What happens if you open an account both at Bookmaker and JustBet?
Nothing out of the ordinary if you bear in mind placing value positions in American sports.
I meant if they will track and compare the betting of the two accounts.
For example will they close your account and take your money you if you place bets on the opposite outcome?
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Nov 20, 2024 4:40 pm

notis58 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2024 2:13 am
arb12 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:31 pm
notis58 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2024 8:04 pm


What happens if you open an account both at Bookmaker and JustBet?
Nothing out of the ordinary if you bear in mind placing value positions in American sports.
I meant if they will track and compare the betting of the two accounts.
For example will they close your account and take your money you if you place bets on the opposite outcome?

I'm afraid that only BM/CRIS managers know the answer to your question about whether it is allowed to place such types of market positions there, or better ask the forum users who place such positions in this group.

For a value betting style in highly liquid NFL/MLB and similar markets, they are pretty OK right now. I mean placing my own pre-calculated positions, based on my Models only, I don't use alert services at all.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Sun Dec 08, 2024 11:18 pm

Turns out I was right.

You won't always lose in the long run at the broker no matter what as claimed here by many.

It depends on the odds of your bets

After around 100 bets at BIA I am still winning.
My average betting odds are less than 2.0 (weighted by the respective stakes) i.e. probability over 50%.
So purely mathematically the expected value of the returns is higher than the stakes, that is I was expected to win.
And this is exactly what happened.
I know that 100 bets is a relatively small number statistically but it still gives a strong indication
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:16 am

100 bets is nothing.
If you are arbing versus exchange you are likely to lose at exchange and win at broker. If you arbing against another bookie you will lose at broker and win at bookie.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:32 pm

DPG wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:16 am
100 bets is nothing.
If you are arbing versus exchange you are likely to lose at exchange and win at broker. If you arbing against another bookie you will lose at broker and win at bookie.
Less than 5 of my bets where matched at an exchange. All others were matched at local bookies.

!00 bets is not nothing. It is a sample large enough for statistics.

I won't go as far as to calculate the statistical significance of the result to convince you.
If I do it, I'll do it for myself.

Where you win or lose depends solely on probabilities.

In the long run you will win where you placed your bets at the higher probability outcome.
This the maths.

In my case, as I have explained, the weighted average probability so far has been higher at the broker.
The result confirms the maths.

Simple as that.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Mon Dec 09, 2024 9:50 pm

In my experience a pro bookie such as Pinnacle is far and away more superior at setting lines than any of the other bookmakers I used.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Dec 25, 2024 4:07 pm

notis58 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:32 pm
DPG wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:16 am
100 bets is nothing.
If you are arbing versus exchange you are likely to lose at exchange and win at broker. If you arbing against another bookie you will lose at broker and win at bookie.
Where you win or lose depends solely on probabilities.
Holy f you are one stubborn stupid person who acts like an idiot towards people who tried to help you.

Where you win or lose depends in the long run solely on odds that have value and like that one user showed you wagering 25k bets and around 3 million worth turnover, the value is not on sharp side of bookies.

100 bets is less than nothing as a sample. Please come back when you have at least 2000 bets.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:30 pm

SWest73 wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 4:07 pm
notis58 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:32 pm
DPG wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:16 am
100 bets is nothing.
If you are arbing versus exchange you are likely to lose at exchange and win at broker. If you arbing against another bookie you will lose at broker and win at bookie.
Where you win or lose depends solely on probabilities.
Holy f you are one stubborn stupid person who acts like an idiot towards people who tried to help you.

Where you win or lose depends in the long run solely on odds that have value and like that one user showed you wagering 25k bets and around 3 million worth turnover, the value is not on sharp side of bookies.

100 bets is less than nothing as a sample. Please come back when you have at least 2000 bets.
Maths aren't your specialty apparently.
And who is the stupid f idiot is more than obvious here.

Happy holidays!
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:32 pm

Can we keep this (and any) discussion within kindness frames? I mean, it is Christmas today. Let's keep the surplus of testosterone for tomorrow.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:40 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:32 pm
Can we keep this (and any) discussion within kindness frames? I mean, it is Christmas today. Let's keep the surplus of testosterone for tomorrow.
You are absolutely right!!!
But in my defense I didn't start this
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:49 pm

notis58 wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:30 pm
SWest73 wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 4:07 pm
notis58 wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:32 pm


Where you win or lose depends solely on probabilities.
Holy f you are one stubborn stupid person who acts like an idiot towards people who tried to help you.

Where you win or lose depends in the long run solely on odds that have value and like that one user showed you wagering 25k bets and around 3 million worth turnover, the value is not on sharp side of bookies.

100 bets is less than nothing as a sample. Please come back when you have at least 2000 bets.
Maths aren't your specialty apparently.
And who is the stupid f idiot is more than obvious here.

Happy holidays!
Your original claim was that all the money will end up to sharps as you mainly bet lower odds/favorites to those bookies. Can you even understand how stupid that assumption is? Where do you need those soft bookies if you make decent coin only betting favorites on sharps?

And you said this is not about value betting but arbing. True. But have you ever noticed where value betting is based on? They are the exact same games people are betting on soft bookies you are using for arbing.

You asked why not then bet only those soft bookie bets if it's that easy. Well, surprise surprise that is EXACTLY what valuebetting is. And you make way much more money doing that compared to arbing but there is also the variance side which might be mentally stressing.

But like I said come back when you have that 2000 bets and lets see on which side money is going.

Math is strong with you my padawan.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Thu Dec 26, 2024 3:12 pm

SWest73 wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:49 pm

Your original claim was that all the money will end up to sharps as you mainly bet lower odds/favorites to those bookies. Can you even understand how stupid that assumption is? Where do you need those soft bookies if you make decent coin only betting favorites on sharps?

And you said this is not about value betting but arbing. True. But have you ever noticed where value betting is based on? They are the exact same games people are betting on soft bookies you are using for arbing.

You asked why not then bet only those soft bookie bets if it's that easy. Well, surprise surprise that is EXACTLY what valuebetting is. And you make way much more money doing that compared to arbing but there is also the variance side which might be mentally stressing.

But like I said come back when you have that 2000 bets and lets see on which side money is going.

Math is strong with you my padawan.

You either cannot read or understand nothing of what you read.
Arguing with such an ignorant is hopeless.
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?

Thu Dec 26, 2024 4:50 pm

notis58 wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2024 3:12 pm
SWest73 wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2024 6:49 pm

Your original claim was that all the money will end up to sharps as you mainly bet lower odds/favorites to those bookies. Can you even understand how stupid that assumption is? Where do you need those soft bookies if you make decent coin only betting favorites on sharps?

And you said this is not about value betting but arbing. True. But have you ever noticed where value betting is based on? They are the exact same games people are betting on soft bookies you are using for arbing.

You asked why not then bet only those soft bookie bets if it's that easy. Well, surprise surprise that is EXACTLY what valuebetting is. And you make way much more money doing that compared to arbing but there is also the variance side which might be mentally stressing.

But like I said come back when you have that 2000 bets and lets see on which side money is going.

Math is strong with you my padawan.

You either cannot read or understand nothing of what you read.
Arguing with such an ignorant is hopeless.
So can you repeat what you meant? I apologize in advance if I misunderstood you.

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