Man, dont waste your time here. He is a troll or noob. There is not any misuderstanding here, I got to same conclusion as you, he placed HUGE AMOUNT of 2000 bets and draw crucial conclusions based on that. More than that, dont take absolutely any advices from experienced users cause HE KNOWS BETTER doesnt matter what you say. I stopped having any conversation with someone who act like he started betting yesterday
Is it worth arbing at brokers?
- Grant
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
- notis58
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Hard or soft doesn't matter. Probabilities matter.
And it happens that in the arbs I played so far, the higher probability outcome was most of the times at BIA. And as expected I win at BIA.
Simple as that.
Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
I meant what I said: In the long rung you win where you bet on the higher probability outcome, i.e. odds less than 2.0
Hard or soft doesn't matter. Probabilities matter.
And it happens that in the arbs I played so far, the higher probability outcome was most of the times at BIA. And as expected I win at BIA.
Simple as that.
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arbusers
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
I am monotonically repeating my self. The natural flow of money in arbitrage is from the sharp bookmakers (pin etc) and exchanges (Betfair) to soft bookmakers. This is an observation that goes on and on for some 20 years now, and there is nothing in the market indicating a change in behavior.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
- SWest73
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Have you thought about placing those bets only on favorites as by your logic you'll be bathing in money with this system?
Please do so and keep us updated by every 100 bets.
Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
You know it was sarcasm 'if I misunderstood you'.notis58 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:16 amI meant what I said: In the long rung you win where you bet on the higher probability outcome, i.e. odds less than 2.0
Hard or soft doesn't matter. Probabilities matter.
And it happens that in the arbs I played so far, the higher probability outcome was most of the times at BIA. And as expected I win at BIA.
Simple as that.
Have you thought about placing those bets only on favorites as by your logic you'll be bathing in money with this system?
Please do so and keep us updated by every 100 bets.
- SWest73
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
Exactly. I admire you have nerves to respond in a gentle way.arbusers wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:39 amI am monotonically repeating my self. The natural flow of money in arbitrage is from the sharp bookmakers (pin etc) and exchanges (Betfair) to soft bookmakers. This is an observation that goes on and on for some 20 years now, and there is nothing in the market indicating a change in behavior.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
- TjTaker
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
I hope you never lose your iron patience
Because dumb people, besides being many, still multiply
Because dumb people, besides being many, still multiply
- notis58
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by the way the subject was about BROKERS
Not sharp bookies and exchanges
And at brokers there are also soft bookies
And this can lead to the result that I have
Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
arbusers wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:39 amI am monotonically repeating my self. The natural flow of money in arbitrage is from the sharp bookmakers (pin etc) and exchanges (Betfair) to soft bookmakers. This is an observation that goes on and on for some 20 years now, and there is nothing in the market indicating a change in behavior.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
by the way the subject was about BROKERS
Not sharp bookies and exchanges
And at brokers there are also soft bookies
And this can lead to the result that I have
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- SWest73
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As a seasoned pro on this subject you should know BROKERS = Sharps.
Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
Can you give me one example of soft bookie on brokers for starters?notis58 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 12:42 amarbusers wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:39 amI am monotonically repeating my self. The natural flow of money in arbitrage is from the sharp bookmakers (pin etc) and exchanges (Betfair) to soft bookmakers. This is an observation that goes on and on for some 20 years now, and there is nothing in the market indicating a change in behavior.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
by the way the subject was about BROKERS
Not sharp bookies and exchanges
And at brokers there are also soft bookies
And this can lead to the result that I have
As a seasoned pro on this subject you should know BROKERS = Sharps.
- hardcore
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
I see artemis and longma books on your screenshot. Are those new books? Has anyone ever seen their odds on molly? I have not.notis58 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 12:42 amarbusers wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:39 amI am monotonically repeating my self. The natural flow of money in arbitrage is from the sharp bookmakers (pin etc) and exchanges (Betfair) to soft bookmakers. This is an observation that goes on and on for some 20 years now, and there is nothing in the market indicating a change in behavior.
With a limited sample of bets, it is normal to see short term deviations, but a decent sample of bets will be disciplined to what I mentioned above.
by the way the subject was about BROKERS
Not sharp bookies and exchanges
And at brokers there are also soft bookies
And this can lead to the result that I have
- notis58
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Cause I am close to 200 bets and still winning big at BIA.
Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
Are all the bookies in this list sharp? If so then the claim that in arbing money flows from sharp to soft isn't 100% valid.
Cause I am close to 200 bets and still winning big at BIA.
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- gorila
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
Hi mate. Can you post your results here updated? Cheersnotis58 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 11:18 pmTurns out I was right.
You won't always lose in the long run at the broker no matter what as claimed here by many.
It depends on the odds of your bets
After around 100 bets at BIA I am still winning.
My average betting odds are less than 2.0 (weighted by the respective stakes) i.e. probability over 50%.
So purely mathematically the expected value of the returns is higher than the stakes, that is I was expected to win.
And this is exactly what happened.
I know that 100 bets is a relatively small number statistically but it still gives a strong indication
Screenshot 2024-12-09 at 12.44.58 AM.png
- SWest73
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Re: Is it worth arbing at brokers?
Would love to get updates from seasoned pro on his voyage to betting billionaire.
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