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Isn't the arb game dead?

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justanarber

Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:11 pm

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
justanarber wrote:
CharlieSheen99 wrote: Combining valuebets, of course, multiply the value. it's a simple mathematics operation.
obviously it is not so simple yo you, you can combine 2 events or 3 or 10 the value remains the same, you are confusing value with profit, combining bets will increase stakes therefore profit too but does not change the value.
Up to you.

Just take a paper, do the maths, and you will see with your own eyes.
of course you don't have to be understand these things to make posts about them

if I have 1000 picks with an average of 2% in my favour and I place 1000 single bets, on average i would be 2% of my stakes ahead afterwards

if I have 1000 picks with an average of 2% in my favour and I place 250 fourfolds, on average I would be 2% of my stakes ahead afterwards

turning the single bets into doubles, trebles, fourfolds etc does not multiply the value as you claim charliesheen99
Last edited by justanarber on Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:43 pm

I will put a simple example:

Imagine that the probability of two different events is 50%

imagine that both events have odds 2,05.

so you have an edge of 2,5% on both events separately.

But, if you combine the events, you have an odd of 4,2025, when the real odd of the parlay bet, is 4.

This is and edge of 5,0625%

In the long haul, parlay valuebets has a lot more value than do both value bets separately.

I hope that now is more clear than before.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:46 pm

justanarber wrote:
CharlieSheen99 wrote:
justanarber wrote: obviously it is not so simple yo you, you can combine 2 events or 3 or 10 the value remains the same, you are confusing value with profit, combining bets will increase stakes therefore profit too but does not change the value.
Up to you.

Just take a paper, do the maths, and you will see with your own eyes.
of course you don't have to be understand these things to make posts about them

if I have 1000 picks with an average of 2% in my favour and I place 1000 single bets, on average i would be 2% of my stakes ahead afterwards

if I have 1000 picks with an average of 2% in my favour and I place 250 fourfolds, on average I would be 2% of my stakes ahead afterwards

turning the single bets into doubles, trebles, fourfolds etc does not multiply the value as you claim charliesheen99
Your math is terrible.

I have 16 single bets of 2.04 where the probability of winning is 50%  This gives 2% value.

I place 16 singles of 100€ x2.04, so I expect to win 32€ (I lose 8 and I win 8 bets giving me a profit of 32€ total).

I place 16 four-folds of 100€ of those bets (off course this is long term assuming you have a bunch of 2% value bets).  The odd is now 17.32 for each bet (2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04). You are expected to win 1 of those and lose the other 15.  You win 100x2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04  = 1732 and lose the other 1500.  Your stake was 1600. Your profit is 132€.
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justanarber

Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:18 pm

ok I was doing these bets years ago and knew because of the same effect as compound interest had that profit but not value increased
and thought back then and now that although profit increased it had no bearing on probabilty/value.

your good explanation/example alfa1234 has proved to me that now and also for many years my thinking has been wrong.

I apologise to you and also to charliesheen99, you were right and I was wrong.

I stopped these bets years ago as thought they had no added value and weren't worth the time/hassle but never did i realise they actually
increased arbing profit, I live and learn.

just goes to prove you don't have to be smart to be a success at this game and yes if I was starting out all over again I'd be looking more at these multiple bets, purely for account longevity.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:23 pm

justanarber wrote:
ok I was doing these bets years ago and knew because of the same effect as compound interest had that profit but not value increased
and thought back then and now that although profit increased it had no bearing on probabilty/value.

your good explanation/example alfa1234 has proved to me that now and also for many years my thinking has been wrong.

I apologise to you and also to charliesheen99, you were right and I was wrong.

I stopped these bets years ago as thought they had no added value and weren't worth the time/hassle but never did i realise they actually
increased arbing profit, I live and learn.

just goes to prove you don't have to be smart to be a success at this game and yes if I was starting out all over again I'd be looking more at these multiple bets, purely for account longevity.
We are here to learn, I learned a great deal in this thread helping me maximise profits, I'm glad you did too in the end.  ;)

Thanks again Sawyer!  ;D
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:29 pm

CharlieSheen99 wrote: If you combine two or more valuebets, the value is multiplied as well.
I allways do it, and no care about the odds. I even bet on very high odds.

And yes, sometimes, you get the jackpot.
For some reason, I always strive for odds 2 (+100), the 50/50 outcome, thinking it is the optimal compromise between risking much (low odds) and risking not winning (high odds). I believe that it is also the best way to reduce variance. That's why I only combine bets when odds are very low.

However, I have forgotten what actually justify this and maybe it is an unrational thought, maybe it is a mistake to think this way. What do you think? Has there been any discussions in the forum about this?
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:39 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
CharlieSheen99 wrote: If you combine two or more valuebets, the value is multiplied as well.
I allways do it, and no care about the odds. I even bet on very high odds.

And yes, sometimes, you get the jackpot.
For some reason, I always strive for odds 2 (+100), the 50/50 outcome, thinking it is the optimal compromise between risking much (low odds) and risking not winning (high odds). I believe that it is also the best way to reduce variance. That's why I only combine bets when odds are very low.

However, I have forgotten what actually justify this and maybe it is an unrational thought, maybe it is a mistake to think this way. What do you think? Has there been any discussions in the forum about this?
The are others reasons that should be taken in mind.
The probability of unpaid, if the odds are too high, the probability of taxes, depends on your country....., but, just for a mathematical way of think, it doesn't care, you should combine all the valuebets that you have, and without care about the odds.

Of course there are a lot of variance, but in the end, you will win.

I won odds 27,51, 81, 101..., i don't remember, but a lot of different ones....of course, i lost a lot of those parlay bets, but surely i am positive counting all of them.


Before to forgot: THANKS SAWYER!!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:42 pm

Justanarber was right before he apologized.
The issue here is that prlays affect your staking in a way that is hard to notice.
So in the example of 2 bets at odds 2,05 where fair odd is 2,00 and value 2,5%, you are simply increasing the stake on the second bet in case the first one is a winner.
It is easier to understand on events that take place at different times, although it’s the same for simultaneous events as well.
So in the example above, if we assume the stake of the parlay bet is 100€, for the first bet we will be risking 100€ to win 205€.
If the bet is a winner, the second bet does not have twice the stake as the first one, as the profits are also automatically staked. Therefore we risk 205€ to win 420,25€. The value does not change, it is still 2,5%.
Either if you do them together or separately, you would risk 100€ at 2,05 on the first bet, and need 102,5€ at odds 2,00 to cover evenly.
For the second bet, you can also risk the potential profits on a new single bet, staking 205€ at odds 2,05 to win 420,25€ and cover it with 210,13€. In fact, if you have two simultaneous events with same value, you can randomly pick one of them and multiply your initial stake by the potential payout of the other bet, the result would be the same.
So if maths seem to say that parlay betting gives an edge over single betting, it is only because you will be staking the potential profits into other bets, modifying the staking dynamically and depending on odds of first bets that win, which you wouldn’t do single betting.
In fact, if we wanted to avoid risks of odds movements, it would always be safer to close all positions as soon as possible.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:44 pm

I did it a lot of times.

This works like i say. I am sure about that.

Stake has to be the same.

100€ at odds 2,05 means E(V) =102,5€ profit
100€ at odds 4,2025 means E(V) =105,062€ profit.
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justanarber

Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:46 am

middler wrote: Justanarber was right before he apologized.
The issue here is that prlays affect your staking in a way that is hard to notice.
So in the example of 2 bets at odds 2,05 where fair odd is 2,00 and value 2,5%, you are simply increasing the stake on the second bet in case the first one is a winner.
It is easier to understand on events that take place at different times, although it’s the same for simultaneous events as well.
So in the example above, if we assume the stake of the parlay bet is 100€, for the first bet we will be risking 100€ to win 205€.
If the bet is a winner, the second bet does not have twice the stake as the first one, as the profits are also automatically staked. Therefore we risk 205€ to win 420,25€. The value does not change, it is still 2,5%.
Either if you do them together or separately, you would risk 100€ at 2,05 on the first bet, and need 102,5€ at odds 2,00 to cover evenly.
For the second bet, you can also risk the potential profits on a new single bet, staking 205€ at odds 2,05 to win 420,25€ and cover it with 210,13€. In fact, if you have two simultaneous events with same value, you can randomly pick one of them and multiply your initial stake by the potential payout of the other bet, the result would be the same.
So if maths seem to say that parlay betting gives an edge over single betting, it is only because you will be staking the potential profits into other bets, modifying the staking dynamically and depending on odds of first bets that win, which you wouldn’t do single betting.
In fact, if we wanted to avoid risks of odds movements, it would always be safer to close all positions as soon as possible.
in the end it's about profit, the compound effect of doing multiples increases the stake and therefore the profit, of course nothing you can do can change the value it is set at whatever odds you take at that moment, if you have 100 on or 1000 on the value is the same, increasing the stake does not change the value but as in alfa1234's example the profit does increase without changing the value when you do multiples and i got that wrong and was surprised to see that.

for level stakes everything would be the same but cannot compare singles and multiples as not level stakes after first leg wins.
Last edited by justanarber on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:42 am

Returning to the original intention, it was about giving an example about how to play parlay arbs even if events are at same time. And Sawyer gave a perfect method how to archive this. All other things depend on style and individual resources. Debate is a good thing as long as its constructive and gives additional insight. Like for example justanarber added to this post that maybe parlays have disadvantages too. This adds insights but at same time Sawyer post is a jewel for those who play at bookies where parlays give an advantage. Personal attacks should be out of the community because they result in nothing but time consuming.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:01 am

Wolfie wrote: Returning to the original intention, it was about giving an example about how to play parlay arbs even if events are at same time. And Sawyer gave a perfect method how to archive this. All other things depend on style and individual resources. Debate is a good thing as long as its constructive and gives additional insight. Like for example justanarber added to this post that maybe parlays have disadvantages too. This adds insights but at same time Sawyer post is a jewel for those who play at bookies where parlays give an advantage. Personal attacks should be out of the community because they result in nothing but time consuming.
I agree.

Everyone have to protect this forum, doing the best of ourselves to maintain the quality. If not, we could turn it into a rubbish forum, where no one of us want to write and read.
About the confrontations. We need to have the sensitivity to understand the difference between an enemy and an adversary when we share ideas.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:38 am

What I find really interesting is the different kind of "bonus" many bookmakers give with parlaybets.

Example, Bet365 have for specific markets (the big leagues) +5% on triples and more on 4-lings, 5-lings and so on.

Let's just say for an example that you have a parlay of 3 games which all have 0% negative or positive value (someway realistic), then it would result in a 5% pre arb on big markets anyway? Which is huge value and something you would never find on a single.

Does anyone have experience or thoughts about this?
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:12 pm

Lumberjack wrote: Let's just say for an example that you have a parlay of 3 games which all have 0% negative or positive value (someway realistic), then it would result in a 5% pre arb on big markets anyway? Which is huge value and something you would never find on a single.
Yes! You will accumulate value from several odds with zero or positive EV AND get the bonus.

I tested the parlay limits on my limited bet365 account last year, and I found that I was actually being MORE limited on parlays, than I would on a similar single market with odd in the same range. Just tested today on pinnacle as well, same story. 3 games with combined odds below 2 at an unheard pinnacle limit of 40 euro.

So maybe those insightful books limit parlays more than single bets for some reason that is related to our discussion in this thread.

So if you have no limits and find several overvalued odds, go for it and parlay!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:25 am

in breaking bet pinnacle odd show 1.49 but when i am log in pinnacle odd is reduced to 1.33. In every game it is happen. Pinnacle odd doesn’t match. I use bet365 and pinnacle for arbing.. Please guys  tell me how can i profit

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