Live-arbing or future arbing?

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fnatic91
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:58 pm

MUCHBET wrote: I don't know how big your arbs are thyt you usually go for - usually I took only arbs from 2+ % -
if you loose 1,8% there it can't be much left on the long run (of course depending on the odds from UNDER - especially first half U/O towards 30-38min will have between 2,00 down to around 1,50 - so this in fact is always the higher amount...
I play only arbs which give me at least 5 EUR profits and  i always wager 100 EUR on "under".So , if i place 100 bets and only 1 goal is scored the result would be :

99 arbs * 5 EUR/arb  = 495 EUR
1 goal scored = -100 EUR

So ,the profit  is +395

If two goals are scored , profit would be +290.If 3 goals are scored , it would be +185 etc...

PS : I have calculated the average profit/arb 5 EUR ,but it is higher ( 6 EUR ) cuz while the under is being confirmed , "over" keeps increasing and you get higher odds
cityboy
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:42 am

tennis and cricket are good for live arbing.
palindon
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:41 am

is it arbitrage trading when make a bet then wait for something to happen so you can complete the other side of the arb? palindon
ImaRebel
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:54 pm

palindon wrote: is it arbitrage trading when make a bet then wait for something to happen so you can complete the other side of the arb? palindon
if you place a bet and then wait for something to happen it`s a "normal" bet. (unless you can look in the future ;) )
qbet
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:57 pm

palindon wrote: is it arbitrage trading when make a bet then wait for something to happen so you can complete the other side of the arb? palindon
You are right, arbitrage is an unfortunate term here. Furthermore this O/U strategy can have very high variance. 
ImaRebel
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:40 pm

just an example from yesterday "Cheltenham - Everton"

100€ betfair lay o4,5@4,4
ok now wait a little and sure the bet but......

1.half:

1. goal 12min
2. goal 21min

noway to sure the bet in the first half

2.half:

3.goal 4min      :(
4.goal 6min      >:(  :o
5.goal 13min    >:( >:(  :'(
6.goal  44min  ::) ::) ::) ::)

noway to sure the bet in the second half and the money is gone ...  -->
phpBB [video]
 
MUCHBET
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:52 pm

fnatic91 wrote:
MUCHBET wrote: I don't know how big your arbs are thyt you usually go for - usually I took only arbs from 2+ % -
if you loose 1,8% there it can't be much left on the long run (of course depending on the odds from UNDER - especially first half U/O towards 30-38min will have between 2,00 down to around 1,50 - so this in fact is always the higher amount...
I play only arbs which give me at least 5 EUR profits and  i always wager 100 EUR on "under".So , if i place 100 bets and only 1 goal is scored the result would be :

99 arbs * 5 EUR/arb  = 495 EUR
1 goal scored = -100 EUR

So ,the profit  is +395

If two goals are scored , profit would be +290.If 3 goals are scored , it would be +185 etc...

PS : I have calculated the average profit/arb 5 EUR ,but it is higher ( 6 EUR ) cuz while the under is being confirmed , "over" keeps increasing and you get higher odds

You lucky guy - my statistics from last month:
170bets, 4 losses (as my usual bet is around 300-500€ you may calculate ca. 1,5k loss and ca. 1,7k  win from other bets - that's why I quit live-arbing again now :( (maybe I am just an unlucky guy, but over the last years again & again I try my luck in live - and always get a bloody nose from it :(
SurebetMonitor
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:55 pm

There was one clever post up here:

football, especially between the asians and pinnacle is not the place where the live-arbing money is made.

Choose handball, choose basketball, cover with soft-bookies.
Surebet Monitor - Free arbitrage alert software
http://www.surebetmonitor.com
fnatic91
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 7:35 pm

MUCHBET wrote:
fnatic91 wrote:
MUCHBET wrote: I don't know how big your arbs are thyt you usually go for - usually I took only arbs from 2+ % -
if you loose 1,8% there it can't be much left on the long run (of course depending on the odds from UNDER - especially first half U/O towards 30-38min will have between 2,00 down to around 1,50 - so this in fact is always the higher amount...
I play only arbs which give me at least 5 EUR profits and  i always wager 100 EUR on "under".So , if i place 100 bets and only 1 goal is scored the result would be :

99 arbs * 5 EUR/arb  = 495 EUR
1 goal scored = -100 EUR

So ,the profit  is +395

If two goals are scored , profit would be +290.If 3 goals are scored , it would be +185 etc...

PS : I have calculated the average profit/arb 5 EUR ,but it is higher ( 6 EUR ) cuz while the under is being confirmed , "over" keeps increasing and you get higher odds

You lucky guy - my statistics from last month:
170bets, 4 losses (as my usual bet is around 300-500€ you may calculate ca. 1,5k loss and ca. 1,7k  win from other bets - that's why I quit live-arbing again now :( (maybe I am just an unlucky guy, but over the last years again & again I try my luck in live - and always get a bloody nose from it :(
Mate , if you bet 300 EUR  ,you should play only the arbs that give you at least 15 EUR profit.So,you need 20 arbs ( 20 * 15 = 300) to cover your losses ( 300)  in case a goal is scored.

Basing on your stats , i think that you are also playing arbs that give you less than 15 EUR profit and this is the reason of your losses.If you play arbs that give you less than 15 EUR , this means that  you are playing more arbs ( more risk) and your average profit per arb is lower ( let's say 10 EUR) . In this case you need 30 arbs to cover your losses.

Now back to your stats,if you take my advise the results would be  :

170 bets , 4 goals scored

166 bets * 15 EUR  = 2490 EUR
4 goals  = - 1200 EUR

Profit + 1290 EUR
fnatic91
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Tue Jan 08, 2013 7:42 pm

170bets, 4 losses (as my usual bet is around 300-500€ you may calculate ca. 1,5k loss and ca. 1,7k
here is your problem , 1700 / 170 = 10 EUR / arb ( average profit per arb)

You are playing arbs that you should not play.You should not play arbs that give you less than 15 EUR (since you are betting 300 ) .
Myself , i bet 100 EUR and i play only  arbs that give me  at least 5 EUR.I play arbs that give me less than 5 EUR only at HT ,because it has no risk.
StevenSmith
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Re: Live-arbing or future arbing?

Sat Apr 13, 2013 5:52 am

Nice that you share, but I am sure there are many live-arbers
who earn a lot with live arbing.

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