Live arbing

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
fnatic91
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:36 pm

whitesnake wrote: Hi guys, I did not try live arbing, but reading your comments an idea came into my head: cross-market live arbs. Do you think it is worth investing time to investigate this? Would it be possible to get a positive risk/reward ratio?
Thanks.
what is cross market ?
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:22 pm

fnatic91 wrote:
whitesnake wrote: Hi guys, I did not try live arbing, but reading your comments an idea came into my head: cross-market live arbs. Do you think it is worth investing time to investigate this? Would it be possible to get a positive risk/reward ratio?
Thanks.
what is cross market ?
Fnatic. You are an active member here. Are you asking seriously?
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:53 pm

ppintaluba wrote:
fnatic91 wrote:
whitesnake wrote: Hi guys, I did not try live arbing, but reading your comments an idea came into my head: cross-market live arbs. Do you think it is worth investing time to investigate this? Would it be possible to get a positive risk/reward ratio?
Thanks.
what is cross market ?
Fnatic. You are an active member here. Are you asking seriously?
Yes.

Maybe i know the definition , but don't know that that thing is called "cross market". Can't match definiton with the term
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:19 pm

It's an arbitrage where bets are from different markets.
In example, in a tennis match (3 sets).
bet 1: set bet 2-0 (player 1 wins)
bet 2: set bet 2-1 (player 1 wins)
bet 3: player 2 wins.
This is cross market, but is also simple (all outcomes are independent).

There are cross markets where outcomes are not independent, more difficult to detect and calculate.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:48 pm

ppintaluba wrote: It's an arbitrage where bets are from different markets.
In example, in a tennis match (3 sets).
bet 1: set bet 2-0 (player 1 wins)
bet 2: set bet 2-1 (player 1 wins)
bet 3: player 2 wins.
This is cross market, but is also simple (all outcomes are independent).

There are cross markets where outcomes are not independent, more difficult to detect and calculate.
I get it , thanks.I didn't know this is called cross market.I have done this several times cause sometimes asians don't offer +0,5 handicap , so i was obliged to bet on 2 outcomes (draw and home/away) , the other outcome at europeans.
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:38 am

Well, I was thinking of something like over 2.5 at min 2.25 + even 1.9 at asians + getting out at 1-0 and 0-1 to cut losses should there be no goals or just one goal. Or over 2.5 + BTS no and get out at 1-1 if it does not go well. Of course, these examples are not perfect, they need to be tested and tuned. What I am interested is if it is worth to invest time in analyzing such scenarios.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:42 pm

yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you
, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:38 am

fnatic91 wrote:
yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you
, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
maybe it's not the best solution, but I bet on handicap first put where higher rate. The smaller loss in the case of the goal. And of course you have to be fast
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:59 am

qurde1979 wrote:
fnatic91 wrote:
yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you
, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
maybe it's not the best solution, but I bet on handicap first put where higher rate. The smaller loss in the case of the goal. And of course you have to be fast
I just try to guess which bookmaker will ''chicken out'' and drop his odds, I pick him first
yo
yorkjoss

Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:13 am

fnatic91 wrote:
yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you
, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
not true? almost true? which one is it? personally I do not agree it is 50/50 on handicaps with the asians or pinnacle,
I say that as at times they have kept my bet in the danger zone for well over a minute, at the same time the odds are going the wrong way on the soft side, I have to trust their honesty that if a goal is scored against me my bet won't be accepted, we lose
some of our edge arbing this way, no question? if you have a good ewallet deal then some of the edge is gained back because that's where the real profit is and you can do arbs for break even or small loss, if like me you do not have any ewallet
deals then it makes it harder, as for overs, I would never do this with the asians, for me too dangerous unless it was a really
big arb, I am not saying you cannot make profit with this tactic but in a perfect world with loads of "friends" there are better
and safer ways of making profit.
Thordin
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:53 am

yorkjoss wrote:
fnatic91 wrote:
yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you
, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
not true? almost true? which one is it? personally I do not agree it is 50/50 on handicaps with the asians or pinnacle,
I say that as at times they have kept my bet in the danger zone for well over a minute, at the same time the odds are going the wrong way on the soft side, I have to trust their honesty that if a goal is scored against me my bet won't be accepted, we lose
some of our edge arbing this way, no question? if you have a good ewallet deal then some of the edge is gained back because that's where the real profit is and you can do arbs for break even or small loss, if like me you do not have any ewallet
deals then it makes it harder, as for overs, I would never do this with the asians, for me too dangerous unless it was a really
big arb, I am not saying you cannot make profit with this tactic but in a perfect world with loads of "friends" there are better
and safer ways of making profit.
Chill out man, we are just saying our stats and cases here. If they are far better than yours you should be glad, because it means there is room for improvement!
Why dont you have e-wallet deals? You only need one friend to switch all your asians to.
Get your AC for pinnacle, sbo from banner, normal dafabet and 188bet.
I have had U/O arbs with 188bet on under side, goal scored,big profit.
Also +0.5 / 2 arbs, goal scored asian cancelled and big profit.
Maybe they are not 50/50, probably its around 30% on your favor and 70% against but its still profitable!

I dont understand why people talk down players that say they are doing good. We should be greatfull because they are saying that there is money to be made, we must keep trying harder and harder.
Also, it is a bit of competition, meaning, if i know a weakness of a bookie and use it myself i can milk the cow for a good long time. If more people are looking and find the same weakness, the milk i can get will be less.
So instead of putting our spirits down, they say ''hey, i make this amount of money'', i mean they dont have any superpowers, the rest of us can try to get there, or halfway.

Happy arbing guys!
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:02 pm

It is true what fnatic91 said. Keep in mind that in O/U your minimum % is going to be a lot higher than a regular arb so you can overcome the inevitable losses, and sometimes you will find Over at softbook and Under at asians, i've had unders waiting for a minute just so a goal can be scored.
yo
yorkjoss

Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:04 pm

Thordin wrote:
yorkjoss wrote:
fnatic91 wrote: That is not true.

Your statement is almost true  on  O/U arbs , cause in most of the cases (90%) under is placed at europeans and over at asians.But there are rare occasions where under is placed at asians and a goals is scored , it has happened to me and i believe to everybody else.

BUT , what about handicaps ? It is 50-50 for the goal to be against you or in your favour.
not true? almost true? which one is it? personally I do not agree it is 50/50 on handicaps with the asians or pinnacle,
I say that as at times they have kept my bet in the danger zone for well over a minute, at the same time the odds are going the wrong way on the soft side, I have to trust their honesty that if a goal is scored against me my bet won't be accepted, we lose
some of our edge arbing this way, no question? if you have a good ewallet deal then some of the edge is gained back because that's where the real profit is and you can do arbs for break even or small loss, if like me you do not have any ewallet
deals then it makes it harder, as for overs, I would never do this with the asians, for me too dangerous unless it was a really
big arb, I am not saying you cannot make profit with this tactic but in a perfect world with loads of "friends" there are better
and safer ways of making profit.
Chill out man, we are just saying our stats and cases here. If they are far better than yours you should be glad, because it means there is room for improvement!
Why dont you have e-wallet deals? You only need one friend to switch all your asians to.
Get your AC for pinnacle, sbo from banner, normal dafabet and 188bet.
I have had U/O arbs with 188bet on under side, goal scored,big profit.
Also +0.5 / 2 arbs, goal scored asian cancelled and big profit.
Maybe they are not 50/50, probably its around 30% on your favor and 70% against but its still profitable!

I dont understand why people talk down players that say they are doing good. We should be greatfull because they are saying that there is money to be made, we must keep trying harder and harder.
Also, it is a bit of competition, meaning, if i know a weakness of a bookie and use it myself i can milk the cow for a good long time. If more people are looking and find the same weakness, the milk i can get will be less.
So instead of putting our spirits down, they say ''hey, i make this amount of money'', i mean they dont have any superpowers, the rest of us can try to get there, or halfway.

Happy arbing guys!

chillout? I am, just gave my opinion, was not knocking anyone, it's how I see it, I never said or even implied that anyone
was lieing or doubted anyone's successes, think you may have to re-read what I've said Thordin because basically it's
similar to what you and fnatic91 are saying, as for fnatic91 I suspect he is a talented arber, I spent the last two months
of last year doing exactly the things you are discussing but then I had run out of friends and more importantly MB had
the last of their amazing cashbacks, made many £k's as for me not having an ewallet deal just now, well I am a lazy
arber, it was easy to just arb and the points took care of themselves with MB and the profits flowed basically can't be
bothered with the hassle of moving everything to neteller or going through an affiliate with me and my friends, toooooo
much hassle, back to the original topic, I agree with what you are saying but it is gambling, it is dangerous but it is
profitable but you can't get every arb, if I have no friends I would take another look at it but at the same time we are
treasure hunters, when we find treasure it's not really such a good idea to tell others where the treasure is hidden because
of all these treasure hunters Pinnacle have changed their withdrawal policy be sure that 188 and SBO will eventually
follow, this type of arbing may not be as attractive then?
Last edited by yorkjoss on Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
fnatic91
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:36 pm

Why dont you have e-wallet deals?
what are these deals ?
It is true what fnatic91 said. Keep in mind that in O/U your minimum % is going to be a lot higher than a regular arb so you can overcome the inevitable losses, and sometimes you will find Over at softbook and Under at asians, i've had unders waiting for a minute just so a goal can be scored.
Mate , of course it is true , i know what i am talking , have been arbing in play for the past 3 years.When you make 15% arbs , then even if a goal is scored , that is not a problem.I have had a lot of cases the goal was in my favour (when i had under at asians , or handicap arbs)
Thordin
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Re: Live arbing

Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:36 pm

yorkjoss wrote:
Thordin wrote:
yorkjoss wrote: not true? almost true? which one is it? personally I do not agree it is 50/50 on handicaps with the asians or pinnacle,
I say that as at times they have kept my bet in the danger zone for well over a minute, at the same time the odds are going the wrong way on the soft side, I have to trust their honesty that if a goal is scored against me my bet won't be accepted, we lose
some of our edge arbing this way, no question? if you have a good ewallet deal then some of the edge is gained back because that's where the real profit is and you can do arbs for break even or small loss, if like me you do not have any ewallet
deals then it makes it harder, as for overs, I would never do this with the asians, for me too dangerous unless it was a really
big arb, I am not saying you cannot make profit with this tactic but in a perfect world with loads of "friends" there are better
and safer ways of making profit.
Chill out man, we are just saying our stats and cases here. If they are far better than yours you should be glad, because it means there is room for improvement!
Why dont you have e-wallet deals? You only need one friend to switch all your asians to.
Get your AC for pinnacle, sbo from banner, normal dafabet and 188bet.
I have had U/O arbs with 188bet on under side, goal scored,big profit.
Also +0.5 / 2 arbs, goal scored asian cancelled and big profit.
Maybe they are not 50/50, probably its around 30% on your favor and 70% against but its still profitable!

I dont understand why people talk down players that say they are doing good. We should be greatfull because they are saying that there is money to be made, we must keep trying harder and harder.
Also, it is a bit of competition, meaning, if i know a weakness of a bookie and use it myself i can milk the cow for a good long time. If more people are looking and find the same weakness, the milk i can get will be less.
So instead of putting our spirits down, they say ''hey, i make this amount of money'', i mean they dont have any superpowers, the rest of us can try to get there, or halfway.

Happy arbing guys!

chillout? I am, just gave my opinion, was not knocking anyone, it's how I see it, I never said or even implied that anyone
was lieing or doubted anyone's successes, think you may have to re-read what I've said Thordin because basically it's
similar to what you and fnatic91 are saying, as for fnatic91 I suspect he is a talented arber, I spent the last two months
of last year doing exactly the things you are discussing but then I had run out of friends and more importantly MB had
the last of their amazing cashbacks, made many £k's as for me not having an ewallet deal just now, well I am a lazy
arber, it was easy to just arb and the points took care of themselves with MB and the profits flowed basically can't be
bothered with the hassle of moving everything to neteller or going through an affiliate with me and my friends, toooooo
much hassle, back to the original topic, I agree with what you are saying but it is gambling, it is dangerous but it is
profitable but you can't get every arb, if I have no friends I would take another look at it but at the same time we are
treasure hunters, when we find treasure it's not really such a good idea to tell others where the treasure is hidden because
of all these treasure hunters Pinnacle have changed their withdrawal policy be sure that 188 and SBO will eventually
follow, this type of arbing may not be as attractive then?
Guess just misread then. Anyway you get my point

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