Arbusers

Hi crew. Do I understand correctly by searching the forum that it is best to play live surbet between Pinnacle and soft bookmakers? Which search engine do you recommend, which best finds live surbets between Pinnacle and soft bookmakers? I have a second question. Is it worth playing surbets between soft bookmakers themselves?

Can anyone help?

Personally I prefer soft/exchange, there are many markets to bet on.
Sometimes it is possible to bet on soft/soft.
It's almost impossible to place live surebets between pinnacle and exchange.

If you have no experience it's very risky to do live surebets for a 2/3 reasons:
1) odds move very fast
2) softwares lately make a lot of errors
3) live surebets finder softares are very expensive

If your surebet page shows, let's say, 20 surebets, for the reason n.1) only 1 or 2 are
real, the other ones have already expired before you reach the bookie page.
You risk to watch your monitor and feel frustrated not to be able to place a surebet,
you risk to get forced to play negative bets because of changes of odds.

I use Betburger but 2) and 3)
I don't know how the other services work.

alealeale wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:24 pm

Personally I prefer soft/exchange, there are many markets to bet on.
Sometimes it is possible to bet on soft/soft.
It's almost impossible to place live surebets between pinnacle and exchange.

If you have no experience it's very risky to do live surebets for a 2/3 reasons:
1) odds move very fast
2) softwares lately make a lot of errors
3) live surebets finder softares are very expensive

If your surebet page shows, let's say, 20 surebets, for the reason n.1) only 1 or 2 are
real, the other ones have already expired before you reach the bookie page.
You risk to watch your monitor and feel frustrated not to be able to place a surebet,
you risk to get forced to play negative bets because of changes of odds.

I use Betburger but 2) and 3)
I don't know how the other services work.

Thanks Bro.

In addition to the odds changing quickly and the softwares being expensive, the delay of most books in accepting your bet is what kills you in live arbing, 15/20 seconds is quite common

alealeale wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:24 pm

It's almost impossible to place live surebets between pinnacle and exchange.

If you arb on soccer - you might be right, I don't bet live soccer. But for most sports - it is completely doable arbing Betfair and Pinnacle. It is more common than you think. Not many things I can say about it but:

1. I don't use any software. My eyes are my guide, and ofcourse Bet365 live video to follow the game I am betting.
2. You have to be focused - follow 1 or 2 games at most. Otherwise - you will mess something for sure.
3. You have to be quick and "in the game". You should be able to feel the rhythm of match. Very often even Pinnacle are way out on the wrong side, not a single 3-pointer in the 4th quarter moves the line from 2.7 to 4
4. You have 10 seconds, at most, to realize - there is an arb opportunity, one of the side is caught off-guard and to place your bets - manually. Which means you have to know exactly what your total position is for a particular game all of the time and many more.
5. Yes - there are ways to mitigate Risk to the minimum, it is called experience.

Nobody should trust me - but for sure have to test the claim. Which is highly unlikely.....

Tonton wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 09, 2024 5:57 am

alealeale wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:24 pm

It's almost impossible to place live surebets between pinnacle and exchange.

If you arb on soccer - you might be right, I don't bet live soccer. But for most sports - it is completely doable arbing Betfair and Pinnacle. It is more common than you think. Not many things I can say about it but:

1. I don't use any software. My eyes are my guide, and ofcourse Bet365 live video to follow the game I am betting.
2. You have to be focused - follow 1 or 2 games at most. Otherwise - you will mess something for sure.
3. You have to be quick and "in the game". You should be able to feel the rhythm of match. Very often even Pinnacle are way out on the wrong side, not a single 3-pointer in the 4th quarter moves the line from 2.7 to 4
4. You have 10 seconds, at most, to realize - there is an arb opportunity, one of the side is caught off-guard and to place your bets - manually. Which means you have to know exactly what your total position is for a particular game all of the time and many more.
5. Yes - there are ways to mitigate Risk to the minimum, it is called experience.

Nobody should trust me - but for sure have to test the claim. Which is highly unlikely.....

Thank you for your post(s) that I find very interesting despite our strategies are completely different.
As I said in another thread, even if I were able to arb between sharps, probably I would be scared to withdraw always from brokers (in my Country local bookies winnings are already taxed).

alealeale wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 09, 2024 6:26 am

As I said in another thread, even if I were able to arb between sharps, probably I would be scared to withdraw always from brokers (in my Country local bookies winnings are already taxed).

Have you considered running different strategies - winning one and losing one at the same place/bookie at the same time? They cancel each other out. But you have to know which is which.

I have run this problem with my local off-line bookie, and I am happy to say that I am net neutral player for him which of course is good for business. He gets his commissions, Brokers get theirs, I get mine in the form of promotions/other perks.

Tonton wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 09, 2024 6:57 am

Have you considered running different strategies - winning one and losing one at the same place/bookie at the same time? They cancel each other out. But you have to know which is which.

As far as my routine strategy works I'm ok with it. Surely I would have a plan B but I can't afford to study and work at the same time, btw thanks for your tips!

Tonton wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 09, 2024 5:57 am

...

1. I don't use any software. My eyes are my guide, and ofcourse Bet365 live video to follow the game I am betting.
2. You have to be focused - follow 1 or 2 games at most. Otherwise - you will mess something for sure.
3. You have to be quick and "in the game". You should be able to feel the rhythm of match. Very often even Pinnacle are way out on the wrong side, not a single 3-pointer in the 4th quarter moves the line from 2.7 to 4
4. You have 10 seconds, at most, to realize - there is an arb opportunity, one of the side is caught off-guard and to place your bets - manually. Which means you have to know exactly what your total position is for a particular game all of the time and many more.
5. Yes - there are ways to mitigate Risk to the minimum, it is called experience.

....

Well done, Mr. Tonton, that is one of the most valuable posts here!

My comments on:
#1: I totally agree, the common software could be a burden for some people who constantly tend to invent, test and try again and again their newly generated ideas and it does not allow the mental evolution of these people doing this business differently (I am not denying here the software value for most people);
The live video signal is highly recommended for those who know exactly what they are looking for and can handle the intentional video delay;
#2: Agreed to some extent, that's true mostly for complete rookies as well as for highly experienced people trying to stay in their comfort zone but trust me after a few years your Mind can focus on much many more live events and markets held at the same time and even model those events in live mode;
#3: Absolutely true, the skin in the game is a must, you MUST have the Minds of Arsène Wenger, Carlo Ancelotti, Stephen Fleming, MS Dhoni, Željko Obradović, Andy Reid, Jayden Daniels and so forth;
#4: Agreed, but to mention that these possible and predicted options by you should be prepared much earlier before the positions are placed….
#5: Agreed, your experience so far plus constant attempts to adapt in advance to the most probable new things in the ever-changing new global picture before most compilers realize it, if at all possible.