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Long on ETH

Where to invest the surplus of funds

Our good member CharlieSheen99 suggested that we start a new board in our forum dedicated to cryptos only. What do you think?

Yes, start the board.
28
80%
No, no need for it.
7
20%
 
Total votes: 35
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:53 pm

@arbusers thank you for taking time and giving such thorough explanation on how you view crypto and how you value it. Always nice to have a healthy debate where we can all learn something new. Perhaps I will learn from it something valuable too. It would be great if you could tell about it a little bit more:

Can you tell me why you decided to invest into crypto if you don't believe they have any intrinsic value?

If cryptos don't have intrinsic value then does it mean that you view it as a zero sum game where the only way to make profit is to beat others at it?

And also what gives you confidence that technical analysis can predict how the crowd will behave?

Now I totally agree with you if we talk about Bitcoin. This is purely speculative asset and I was always against it. The only way to make profit with it is by beating others and I was never confident that technical analysis can actually give me an edge and that it is not short term luck, however, I stand to be corrected if you see something in technical analysis which can open my eyes.

However, I disagree that Ethereum does not have any intrinsic value. Yes, it cannot be valued the same way as we value stocks because it does not have cashflow and other financial data that we normally analyze. But it was never its intention to be company which generates revenue and where ether represents ownership in that company. Instead, the best way to view Ethereum is as "digital oil". You see it powers decentralized applications (DApps) which together will form the new internet (commonly referred to as web3). There are so many applications to that, especially in finance sphere - lending, insurance, crowdfunding, building decentralized businesses and so much more. Just like oil powered industrial revolution this "digital oil" can power digital revolution with its smart contracts. So for me the price is not the main reason I care about Ethereum (although it is a nice bonus) but it is its unique utility which is of much greater value to me.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:10 am

@mrJustice,

There is no investment I would jump in because of any philosophical or ideological platform. All investments I make are propelled by profiting. That includes cryptos as well.
We do not know if cryptos are a zero sum game. But beating others is a prerequisite in profiting.
In my view, there is a quartet of elements for investing. It consists of behavioural investing, value investing, technical analysis, and the Elliot Wave theory. There is a fifth element that can’t be taught or studied, this is something that only supreme investors have and it could be probably named as calculating the market sentiment. I clearly don't have that element but I am trying to get as close as I can to it.
By accessing the market with one element, we deprive our selves from all other elements. Thus we better have a resultant of all these before making decisions. But there are cases, where some of these elements are useless, or even dangerous. So what is left for cryptos in my view is behavioural investing, technical analysis and market sentiment.
Behavioural investing is telling us there are some cycles in the markets, and these cycles dictate the maximum extend of our actions. They are telling us that we bet at much higher odds than the real probability of an outcome. This is when we want to bet. Consider it as value betting. But we don't know where these extends are. So we will need technical analysis to guide us even more.
I am using technical analysis since 1998 when I found my self in front of a Metastock software. Some times it is indeed a random walk, or maybe to put it in a different way, it is a random walk for some and a chartered walk for others. From it, you can produce some models. Some might be useless, some might be useful. If your models are useless then it is indeed a random walk, but if they are useful then it is a chartered walk. i am not claiming to be an expert, but most of my models were useful, and they really helped me. Thus I consider technical analysis as an important tool, but not the only tool.
There is always a possibility that we are wrong when we read the market, and we need to avoid a catastrophe (an other Greek word). We are adding an extra layer of safety by using a Dynamic Dollar Cost averaging technique. Consider it as our staking plan.
In the bottom line, we have many safety nets to survive, while we still keep the possibility to profit.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:35 am

arbusers wrote: @mrJustice,

There is no investment I would jump in because of any philosophical or ideological platform. All investments I make are propelled by profiting. That includes cryptos as well.
We do not know if cryptos are a zero sum game. But beating others is a prerequisite in profiting.
In my view, there is a quartet of elements for investing. It consists of behavioural investing, value investing, technical analysis, and the Elliot Wave theory. There is a fifth element that can’t be taught or studied, this is something that only supreme investors have and it could be probably named as calculating the market sentiment. I clearly don't have that element but I am trying to get as close as I can to it.
By accessing the market with one element, we deprive our selves from all other elements. Thus we better have a resultant of all these before making decisions. But there are cases, where some of these elements are useless, or even dangerous. So what is left for cryptos in my view is behavioural investing, technical analysis and market sentiment.
Behavioural investing is telling us there are some cycles in the markets, and these cycles dictate the maximum extend of our actions. They are telling us that we bet at much higher odds than the real probability of an outcome. This is when we want to bet. Consider it as value betting. But we don't know where these extends are. So we will need technical analysis to guide us even more.
I am using technical analysis since 1998 when I found my self in front of a Metastock software. Some times it is indeed a random walk, or maybe to put it in a different way, it is a random walk for some and a chartered walk for others. From it, you can produce some models. Some might be useless, some might be useful. If your models are useless then it is indeed a random walk, but if they are useful then it is a chartered walk. i am not claiming to be an expert, but most of my models were useful, and they really helped me. Thus I consider technical analysis as an important tool, but not the only tool.
There is always a possibility that we are wrong when we read the market, and we need to avoid a catastrophe (an other Greek word). We are adding an extra layer of safety by using a Dynamic Dollar Cost averaging technique. Consider it as our staking plan.
In the bottom line, we have many safety nets to survive, while we still keep the possibility to profit.
This is not Trade2Win, but maybe the members that have some knowledge could share a little bit about read markets, read EWT, draw Technical analysis....
I think that most of us have skills to do this kind of work, and who knows..., maybe in the future we could share our schemes and drawings.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:40 am

1st halving date: 
28.11.2012    BTC price: 12$
12 month later max price 1200$ 
We gained 100x since halving

2nd halving date:
9.7.2016  BTC price 663$     
17 months  later max price 20.000$
We gained 30x since last halving

3th halving date:
11.5.202 BTC price: 8.740$

If i use very simle mathematic (in my opinion to simple for this comlex market)
We will get to max price in 24 months (may 2022). And the top price will be around 90k$.

Ther are 2 big problems: 1st is covid who can make drastic changes (becouse a lot of money was printed). Second obstical i see is that people like to cashout thair profits in december and january (for the tax reports). This mean we can see the top price december 2021 or december 2022. This theory alredy contradict my frist theory.

To me the most interesting is to observe google trends about bitcoin.
From 2011 top to 2013 we went up 4x times in google bitcoin trends
From 2013 top to 2017 we went up 8x times in google bitcoin trends
From 2017 top til next top price how much we can go up? can we go up 12x times, can we go 16x times up?
Probably a lot of people discover bitcoin in december 2017 like my father (older people). So probably a lot of people heard for btc at that time. So i asume we will not see so much mania grow on google trends about bitcoin on next top. We wil mabye see only x2 or x3
So I asume this time we should pay atention to Ethereum google trend, becuse now in this bull cycle people will discover Ethereum. So i asume google trends on Ethereum can jump up from previose top from 4x-8x
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:39 am

@Cigo Halving has been very determinal factor last 2 times, but this time it will have a smaller effect. Since the total marketcap is way higher than the miners reward already. So the miner selling pressure already has not such a big effect. The next halving will have almost no effect at all.
About google trends i have used it a lot as a tool for altcoins in mid 2017. For bitcoin i dont see it reliable anymore since almost all people now have searched at least one time what btc is. So if they want to buy they just go to the exchange and rarely search about it.
@mr.Justice Let me mention in this post that in the beginning i have made a lot of errors in investing until i cut my mind to invest in BTC and ETH only.
Altcoins are good to invest only if you are closely associated with their team. Otherwise is just speculation.
My biggest error was IOTA. In 2017 i have read more or less 200 whitepapers of altcoins. It was the most promising coin on paper and even technically, until it was made clear that in fact it was centralized and it would take time to become decentralized. So when you study a coin fundamentally even if you are tech savy, these people lie just to get publicity. But technically in crypto even a little flaw can result in a total mess. So i did part ways with fundamental analysis on crypto the hard way despite that in total i was still in profit in cryptosphere. Since i changed to technical analysis and just BTC and ETH i have very good results. Are there altcoins millionaire ? Yes there are but its just luck and not careful study and rational analysis. Will you be in profit if you HODL BTC for many years ? My personal opinion is yes. But to say HODL despite all ups and downs its very irrational. Lets say all countries ban BTC in 5 years, what will you do than ? So profit, cashout some of profit and reinvest. This way whatever happens you will be in profit.
It would be helpful if someone else shared their point of view and lessons they have learned the hard way.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:57 am

Wolfie wrote: @Cigo Halving has been very determinal factor last 2 times, but this time it will have a smaller effect. Since the total marketcap is way higher than the miners reward already. So the miner selling pressure already has not such a big effect. The next halving will have almost no effect at all.
About google trends i have used it a lot as a tool for altcoins in mid 2017. For bitcoin i dont see it reliable anymore since almost all people now have searched at least one time what btc is. So if they want to buy they just go to the exchange and rarely search about it..
good point that i need to agree with you about halving. Like I said you dont belive in google trends about bitcoin.
But do you agree on that part of google trends wher i say that now we should look eth google trends more than btc google trends. Becouse like i said in 2017 people didnt tipe a lotin google the word ETHEREUM.
I am only Ethereum and bitcoin beliver
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:19 pm

It is a shame that most members associate crypto only with price, in my opinion there is so much more potential to them. It is sort of like seeing oil and saying "it is just liquid" and not realizing that it can be used as fuel which in turn can build new businesses. On the other hand if not for speculation and all that greed it probably wouldn't get much attention and the development of that technology would've been much slower if not abandoned altogether. So it is double edged sword I guess.

Now don't get me wrong, I totally understand that most (probably like 98%) of altcoins are actually shitcoins. One has to be very careful when selecting the right one. From my experience I can name 4 which show potential and have actual use cases, they are Ethereum, Polkadot, Chainlink and Filecoin. I can describe in detail why I believe in them if someone is interested.

As to how to value such coins, frankly I don't know... I am still not convinced that technical analysis can help here because so far nobody has explained in simple language how and why it works and how can we verify it with empirical data. Instead I see promising cryptos as sort of like startups. Have you ever tried to value startup? It is more art than science. You have to see its potential, its use case, the team behind it, the story they tell. Nobody was able to tell how much Facebook was worth at the early days, some people believed it can become really big and it did. Same thing with me here, I believe in these projects I named and that is why I buy and keep.

That being said I would still love to hear how and why technical analysis works and how can we stress test it in real world.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:52 pm

mrJustice wrote: It is a shame that most members associate crypto only with price, in my opinion there is so much more potential to them. It is sort of like seeing oil and saying "it is just liquid" and not realizing that it can be used as fuel which in turn can build new businesses. On the other hand if not for speculation and all that greed it probably wouldn't get much attention and the development of that technology would've been much slower if not abandoned altogether. So it is double edged sword I guess.

Now don't get me wrong, I totally understand that most (probably like 98%) of altcoins are actually shitcoins. One has to be very careful when selecting the right one. From my experience I can name 4 which show potential and have actual use cases, they are Ethereum, Polkadot, Chainlink and Filecoin. I can describe in detail why I believe in them if someone is interested.

As to how to value such coins, frankly I don't know... I am still not convinced that technical analysis can help here because so far nobody has explained in simple language how and why it works and how can we verify it with empirical data. Instead I see promising cryptos as sort of like startups. Have you ever tried to value startup? It is more art than science. You have to see its potential, its use case, the team behind it, the story they tell. Nobody was able to tell how much Facebook was worth at the early days, some people believed it can become really big and it did. Same thing with me here, I believe in these projects I named and that is why I buy and keep.

That being said I would still love to hear how and why technical analysis works and how can we stress test it in real world.
We should open a new thread like "cryptocurrencies discussion", similar than "bookies discussion", with the knowledge that everyone have about each one. I encourage the owner to give them its own space in this forum.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:25 pm

Are you talking about a new thread, or a new board? The difference is really big.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:45 pm

arbusers wrote: Are you talking about a new thread, or a new board? The difference is really big.
New Board.

On this board there could be a thread with each crypto that members consider interesting.
Last edited by CharlieSheen99 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:10 pm

OK, let's see what people have to say. I created a poll, feel free to vote.
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Re: Long on ETH

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:04 pm

mrJustice wrote: It is a shame that most members associate crypto only with price, in my opinion there is so much more potential to them. It is sort of like seeing oil and saying "it is just liquid" and not realizing that it can be used as fuel which in turn can build new businesses. On the other hand if not for speculation and all that greed it probably wouldn't get much attention and the development of that technology would've been much slower if not abandoned altogether. So it is double edged sword I guess.

Now don't get me wrong, I totally understand that most (probably like 98%) of altcoins are actually shitcoins. One has to be very careful when selecting the right one. From my experience I can name 4 which show potential and have actual use cases, they are Ethereum, Polkadot, Chainlink and Filecoin. I can describe in detail why I believe in them if someone is interested.

As to how to value such coins, frankly I don't know... I am still not convinced that technical analysis can help here because so far nobody has explained in simple language how and why it works and how can we verify it with empirical data. Instead I see promising cryptos as sort of like startups. Have you ever tried to value startup? It is more art than science. You have to see its potential, its use case, the team behind it, the story they tell. Nobody was able to tell how much Facebook was worth at the early days, some people believed it can become really big and it did. Same thing with me here, I believe in these projects I named and that is why I buy and keep.

That being said I would still love to hear how and why technical analysis works and how can we stress test it in real world.
Ihmo TA seems to work because a critical mass of people believes it works ,  it's more like a self fullfilling prophecy kind of thing rather than  a scientifically backed process or phenomenon
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Re: Long on ETH

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:30 pm

cortomaltese wrote:
mrJustice wrote: It is a shame that most members associate crypto only with price, in my opinion there is so much more potential to them. It is sort of like seeing oil and saying "it is just liquid" and not realizing that it can be used as fuel which in turn can build new businesses. On the other hand if not for speculation and all that greed it probably wouldn't get much attention and the development of that technology would've been much slower if not abandoned altogether. So it is double edged sword I guess.

Now don't get me wrong, I totally understand that most (probably like 98%) of altcoins are actually shitcoins. One has to be very careful when selecting the right one. From my experience I can name 4 which show potential and have actual use cases, they are Ethereum, Polkadot, Chainlink and Filecoin. I can describe in detail why I believe in them if someone is interested.

As to how to value such coins, frankly I don't know... I am still not convinced that technical analysis can help here because so far nobody has explained in simple language how and why it works and how can we verify it with empirical data. Instead I see promising cryptos as sort of like startups. Have you ever tried to value startup? It is more art than science. You have to see its potential, its use case, the team behind it, the story they tell. Nobody was able to tell how much Facebook was worth at the early days, some people believed it can become really big and it did. Same thing with me here, I believe in these projects I named and that is why I buy and keep.

That being said I would still love to hear how and why technical analysis works and how can we stress test it in real world.
Ihmo TA seems to work because a critical mass of people believes it works ,  it's more like a self fullfilling prophecy kind of thing rather than  a scientifically backed process or phenomenon
Is there a way to test it multiple times to acquire large enough sample size, thus making sure that it is not short term luck but indeed a reliable strategy which brings consistent results? For example it is quite easy to verify that value betting works when you gather large enough sample size. Does anyone know if similar experiment can be conducted with TA?
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:26 am

Curent average tx fee on the eth ledger is ~8.5 usd. This is to move eth from one address to another.
ERC20 Transfer $26.27 $28.63 $29.93
Uniswap Swap $80.82 $88.10 $92.11
Uniswap Add/Remove LP $70.72 $77.09 $80.59

These are slow, avg, quick confirmation fees for the other transaction categories.

Bitcoin is similar to the eth base fee.

This is a technological characteristic that perhaps should be taken into account when pricing is considered, especially as we approach a heating (or melting) phase of the market. Eth is very specific in this case, because the network represents at least 3/4 of all cryptocurrencies in existence, not just the underlying eth asset.

This small facts may be useful for the readers of these boards that participate in the market exclusively via exchanges and are thus isolated from actual network txs.

I find the numbers to be significant, in the sense that they squeze out small, streamlined participation.
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Re: Long on ETH

Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:31 am

ETH at the last stages of the bubble.

According to the technical analysis based predominantly on the RSI, ETH is very much close to the end of its cycle. If I compare BTC and ETH, it seems to me that ETH will top before BTC. I will explain why.

There is a great saying, ‘’when in doubt, zoom out’’. I am zooming out to the monthly chart and I am noticing that ETH’s RSI is at 86.12, when the previous market top in January 2018 it was at 89.34. Of course, 3 points in a monthly RSI represent a huge price difference that would count into hundreds for ETH. But what I am saying here is that examined through the lence of time, ETH is closing rapidly to the end of the cycle.

I am now zooming in the weekly chart, to see that weekly RSI stands at 90.15. The RSI of the previous top was 88.54 and that means that we already overpassed it. But at the same time, we are noticing an even higher RSI right after the inception of ETH, that was 96.59.

Then I am zooming in the daily RSI to see that for the last 40 days a negative divergence is formatting, and the only way to stop it is a massive and violent upwards movement.


ETH 3 RSIs.png



In addition, as I mentioned previously, I spent 1000s of hours these last months in order to understand the nature of these cycles and find tools that would help me identify tops. Since y axis is not helping me much, I am focusing on the x axis. That is time. To work on the x axis instead of the y, I had to build new metrics. Like our loyal RSI, these metrics gain or lose momentum in the depth of time and that means that today’s extrapolations will not be valid tomorrow. But at least, I managed to reduced randomness a lot. These metrics, or indicators, seem to be working well in simulations of the past cycles behaviours.

If I combine all these, I understand that we are at the final stages of a top formation. That means this is the time to put in the table the characteristics of a blow off. What we should expect to see is a couple-three days of mania, with a daily performance of +10% before the market gets weaker.  This could take some time until it happens, and should be combined with BTC’s behaviour too.

There is a general narrative saying that Altcoins, ETH and BTC work in a circular system, replacing one another in the top. General narratives do not work at the end of cycles, because if they did, all investors and speculators would anticipate the tops. So what is left is something spectacular to happen, something beyond any imagination. But at the same time, what is more spectacular and beyond any imagination than a stealth fall. A fall with no excuse or a triggering event?

I would like to say, once more, that my previous sell of ETH was proven wrong. I found my self in front of a dilemma (another great Greek word) to choose between preservation and excessive profits. I chose the earlier. I reserve the right to be wrong and change my mind when I think I should.

Again, I am not telling you what you should do with your money. There are so many entertainers in Youtube for that. I am simply telling you what I do with my own money. My friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls it ‘’skin in the game’’. FYI, Taleb sold all his BTC bag just yesterday.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Last edited by arbusers on Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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