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Long on ETH

Where to invest the surplus of funds

Our good member CharlieSheen99 suggested that we start a new board in our forum dedicated to cryptos only. What do you think?

Yes, start the board.
28
80%
No, no need for it.
7
20%
 
Total votes: 35
jagas
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:45 am

cortomaltese wrote:
balls of steele wrote: With today's ETH price at $1500 and a massive opportunity missed, do you feel you should say I am sorry to your members?
I suppose we are all big boys here! Arbusers is not giving financial advise as he states frequently in his posts.
Besides he even said that the price COULD GO ABOVE IT
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:34 pm

balls of steele wrote: With today's ETH price at $1500 and a massive opportunity missed, do you feel you should say I am sorry to your members?
In these threads about cryptos and the stock market, I am showing the way that I invest. I am not telling to anyone what he/she should do with his/her money. I am just showing what I do with my own hard earned money.
Really, how many of these people that you see in Bloomberg or Youtube are telling you what they do with their money? Most of them are telling you what they do with other people's money.
The way I invest my own money, and the justification behind every move, shows an immense skin in the game, which is really rare these years and a bequest in our members.

To come back in ETH, seeing things in retrospect, I am now thinking that I became a victim of my  misjudgement. Yes, we outperformed BTC by far, and we continue to outperform it with the remaining ETH assets. But it is now obvious that I should not sell 50% of my ETH assets in the last transaction. It would be better to sell only 25% because that would bring me closer to the 70/30 BTC/ETH ratio which is proved to work better in the long run. These are complex ideas and some times they lead to bias, so difficult to get rid off.

But at the same time, I feel blessed that I took part and I m still taking part in this massive bull run, being able to profit from it and already pocketing my initial investment capital and even more than that. If you balls of steele, or anyone else are able to make more money than me, I will be happy for you, and you have my best wishes in your effort to outperform me or anyone else. Good luck with it.
I feel thankful and grateful being able to make these profits. I m even more thankful that I am getting better from every mistake I make, and from the fact that this mistakes are only costing me potential profits. I will be better in the next cycle.

I mentioned before my favourite poet Cavafy. Somehow Cavafy's poems haves much to give to the rational investor. Who would believe that Cavafy and Thucydides would be Bethlehem's stars in investing?
Yes, I know some people are getting offended with the word Bethlehem, this is their problem.
But reading ''Ithaca'' and ''The God abandons Antony'' have so much to give to the investor and the human being with certain mental and emotional capacity.

Good luck to Balls of steele and everyone else.
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:39 pm

arbusers wrote:
balls of steele wrote: With today's ETH price at $1500 and a massive opportunity missed, do you feel you should say I am sorry to your members?
In these threads about cryptos and the stock market, I am showing the way that I invest. I am not telling to anyone what he/she should do with his/her money. I am just showing what I do with my own hard earned money.
Really, how many of these people that you see in Bloomberg or Youtube are telling you what they do with their money? Most of them are telling you what they do with other people's money.
The way I invest my own money, and the justification behind every move, shows an immense skin in the game, which is really rare these years and a bequest in our members.

To come back in ETH, seeing things in retrospect, I am now thinking that I became a victim of my  misjudgement. Yes, we outperformed BTC by far, and we continue to outperform it with the remaining ETH assets. But it is now obvious that I should not sell 50% of my ETH assets in the last transaction. It would be better to sell only 25% because that would bring me closer to the 70/30 BTC/ETH ratio which is proved to work better in the long run. These are complex ideas and some times they lead to bias, so difficult to get rid off.

But at the same time, I feel blessed that I took part and I m still taking part in this massive bull run, being able to profit from it and already pocketing my initial investment capital and even more than that. If you balls of steele, or anyone else are able to make more money than me, I will be happy for you, and you have my best wishes in your effort to outperform me or anyone else. Good luck with it.
I feel thankful and grateful being able to make these profits. I m even more thankful that I am getting better from every mistake I make, and from the fact that this mistakes are only costing me potential profits. I will be better in the next cycle.

I mentioned before my favourite poet Cavafy. Somehow Cavafy's poems haves much to give to the rational investor. Who would believe that Cavafy and Thucydides would be Bethlehem's stars in investing?
Yes, I know some people are getting offended with the word Bethlehem, this is their problem.
But reading ''Ithaca'' and ''The God abandons Antony'' have so much to give to the investor and the human being with certain mental and emotional capacity.

Good luck to Balls of steele and everyone else.
do you have any predictions what amount could BTC hit this bull run?
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:55 pm

Generally, the best investment strategy is to actually "invest", i.e. buy it and keep it for a long term and not worry about trading. In my opinion all that technical analysis is basically astrology, useless and a waste of time. If you invested into ETH a year ago and simply kept it and did not trade it you would've made almost 10x your investment. How cool is that.

It is very hard to analyze crypto value because they don't have cashflow and other financial data which we normally use to accurately determine value. I think the most qualified people to determine crypto value are actually technical people who work with those protocols, understand the potential of technology and how it can be used in business.

For those who aren't technically savvy just ask yourself if this tech is useful to you? do you use it on a daily basis? do you think others will use it? what problems does it currently solve and what problems will it solve in future? If you find good answers to those questions then it is worth to invest and you will be very well rewarded.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:58 am

mrJustice wrote: Generally, the best investment strategy is to actually "invest", i.e. buy it and keep it for a long term and not worry about trading. In my opinion all that technical analysis is basically astrology, useless and a waste of time. If you invested into ETH a year ago and simply kept it and did not trade it you would've made almost 10x your investment. How cool is that.
Generally, the best sports betting strategy is to put a limit on yourself, enjoy the rush and accept that the house always wins. Yet, as we know, this does not apply to everyone. Neither does it apply to everyone that you can't beat the cryptocurrency market by trading. Astrology must be a very useful tool indeed, as predicting everyone's horoscopes and acting upon it before the majority does, should give you an edge. I buy and sell based on signals by a handful of renowned astrologists such as Arbusers and so far this has beat the market. When I have tried doing horoscopes myself, the result has so far been quite the opposite.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:33 am

mrJustice wrote: Generally, the best investment strategy is to actually "invest", i.e. buy it and keep it for a long term and not worry about trading. In my opinion all that technical analysis is basically astrology, useless and a waste of time. If you invested into ETH a year ago and simply kept it and did not trade it you would've made almost 10x your investment. How cool is that.
If what you are searching for is profit by peace of mind this is the best advice. But if you want to maximize profits you would have to trade.
Technical analysis is what all the whales are doing today in crypto. And this is making it a self fulfilling prophecy. Because all buy at almost the same time and all sell at same time at the expense of the average people of course. So i see it more as cooperation in silence than astrology.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:58 am

cigo wrote: do you have any predictions what amount could BTC hit this bull run?
I can't predict anything, as predictions comes with a high amount of uncertainty. But I will tell you what I think of ETH from now on.

1. We broke the previous ATH and thus no technical analysis can help us from now on, simply because there are no patterns, supports of resistances above any ATH. Technically, there are no limits from now on. That means the next top will be today, or after 2x. No-one knows.
2. No Elliot Wave Theory can help us now as I mentioned previously. EWT is very tough to implement in these markets.
3. ETH price will be depending on BTC's price. In order to have a clue when ETH's market is about to finish, you firstly need to understand when BTC's cycle is coming to an end. Give or take some weeks, these 2 tops will be near.

I understand I should have a bigger exposure in ETH right now, but the current prices are not of my taste. I would prefer to see a local top, a collapse of some 25-30% and then re-invest some funds in ETH. Even if that collapse is higher than today's price, it will be healthier to re-invest then. For now, it is prudent to continue with my current exposure.
Last edited by arbusers on Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:45 pm

We broke the previous ATH and thus no technical analysis can help us from now on, simply because there are no patterns, supports of resistances above any ATH.
When above ATH the only indicator may be Fibonacci levels which can help sometimes , it's magical how Fibonacci number can be applied to almost any aspect!
Last edited by cortomaltese on Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:49 pm

Have to disagree with both @VidaBlue and @Wolfie because your statements are wrong. Look at the date of arbusers first post in this thread, it was October 27, 2020. The price of ETH was then something like $400. If he just bought it back then and kept it he would've made like 4x. Instead because of trading he significantly underperformed. These are facts and not my opinion. I am not trying to be negative here, congrats to arbusers for making decision to invest into ETH and bringing this topic here, thus allowing other members to make amazing profits. But at the same time let's not ignore facts. Value investing and trading have little in common. It is never a good idea to try to time the market. The best minds in investing world like Warren Buffet warned against it.

And @Wolfie don't worry about what whales do, you will never catch them up. The moment they decide to cash out everything you will be too late for the party. Don't follow the herd. If you can't see how valuable ETH can become in future then don't invest in it at all! It is good to learn what others do and how they invest but in the end you have to make final decision yourself, it is your money you risk.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:12 pm

mrJustice wrote: Have to disagree with both @VidaBlue and @Wolfie because your statements are wrong. Look at the date of arbusers first post in this thread, it was October 27, 2020. The price of ETH was then something like $400. If he just bought it back then and kept it he would've made like 4x. Instead because of trading he significantly underperformed. These are facts and not my opinion. I am not trying to be negative here, congrats to arbusers for making decision to invest into ETH and bringing this topic here, thus allowing other members to make amazing profits. But at the same time let's not ignore facts. Value investing and trading have little in common. It is never a good idea to try to time the market. The best minds in investing world like Warren Buffet warned against it.

And @Wolfie don't worry about what whales do, you will never catch them up. The moment they decide to cash out everything you will be too late for the party. Don't follow the herd. If you can't see how valuable ETH can become in future then don't invest in it at all! It is good to learn what others do and how they invest but in the end you have to make final decision yourself, it is your money you risk.
Wish that would be so much easy! So what you are saying is basically "If you believe that an asset has value buy it today and forget it for some years" ! Well , forget it for how many years? When it's 2x your initial investment cash it out?Or Wait for 3x , or maybe 10x? Answer is : You will never know ! Tell that to people who bought ETH at Jan 2018 when price was 1400 and they 'd have to wait almost 3 years to break even! Every trade is different like every person is , with different character , with different risk tolerance etc. I believe that the only way out of this foundemental question is rules and principals! First you set them and then you live (and trade) accordingly! Not the opposite! And if the day you cashed out your last coin , you are +1 your initial investment then you are a winner!
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:32 pm

mrJustice wrote: Have to disagree with both @VidaBlue and @Wolfie because your statements are wrong. Look at the date of arbusers first post in this thread, it was October 27, 2020. The price of ETH was then something like $400. If he just bought it back then and kept it he would've made like 4x. Instead because of trading he significantly underperformed. These are facts and not my opinion. I am not trying to be negative here, congrats to arbusers for making decision to invest into ETH and bringing this topic here, thus allowing other members to make amazing profits. But at the same time let's not ignore facts. Value investing and trading have little in common. It is never a good idea to try to time the market. The best minds in investing world like Warren Buffet warned against it.

And @Wolfie don't worry about what whales do, you will never catch them up. The moment they decide to cash out everything you will be too late for the party. Don't follow the herd. If you can't see how valuable ETH can become in future then don't invest in it at all! It is good to learn what others do and how they invest but in the end you have to make final decision yourself, it is your money you risk.
It seems you are playing with timeline. Because u used the arbusers timeline. While if you check the timeline from when i began investing with technical analysis which is 2016 i am almost 3x more than i would be if i just kept the coins. I make my own homework but part of homework is to see what others are doing because others are part of this market and the world is connected.
For the second part it seems you think whales are the ones that do the pump and dump shit. I am not talking about them.
Last edited by Wolfie on Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:19 pm

cortomaltese wrote:
mrJustice wrote: Have to disagree with both @VidaBlue and @Wolfie because your statements are wrong. Look at the date of arbusers first post in this thread, it was October 27, 2020. The price of ETH was then something like $400. If he just bought it back then and kept it he would've made like 4x. Instead because of trading he significantly underperformed. These are facts and not my opinion. I am not trying to be negative here, congrats to arbusers for making decision to invest into ETH and bringing this topic here, thus allowing other members to make amazing profits. But at the same time let's not ignore facts. Value investing and trading have little in common. It is never a good idea to try to time the market. The best minds in investing world like Warren Buffet warned against it.

And @Wolfie don't worry about what whales do, you will never catch them up. The moment they decide to cash out everything you will be too late for the party. Don't follow the herd. If you can't see how valuable ETH can become in future then don't invest in it at all! It is good to learn what others do and how they invest but in the end you have to make final decision yourself, it is your money you risk.
Wish that would be so much easy! So what you are saying is basically "If you believe that an asset has value buy it today and forget it for some years" ! Well , forget it for how many years? When it's 2x your initial investment cash it out?Or Wait for 3x , or maybe 10x? Answer is : You will never know ! Tell that to people who bought ETH at Jan 2018 when price was 1400 and they 'd have to wait almost 3 years to break even! Every trade is different like every person is , with different character , with different risk tolerance etc. I believe that the only way out of this foundemental question is rules and principals! First you set them and then you live (and trade) accordingly! Not the opposite! And if the day you cashed out your last coin , you are +1 your initial investment then you are a winner!
That's exactly what Warren Buffet did and it made him billionaire, although he had to be very patient because it took him way more than 3 years to do that. Those people who bought at Jan 2018 were herd, it was hot and they followed what everyone else was doing. On the other hand those who understood value of technology early before it became hot are now millionaires. I started building on Ethereum way before it became so popular and I am very grateful to that technology, not just because of price but also because of business opportunities it opened. So yes, look for value instead of worrying about timing.

Is now ETH overvalued? I don't know. Maybe it is and it will barely move for the next couple of years, maybe it will skyrocket soon once again and then will be passive for some time, it doesn't matter. What matters is what's going to happen with it long term. If it has value, it's going to be great, if not it will fail. You have to decide yourself it it has value, no technical analysis will show you that.

P.S. @Wofie did you invest in ETH in 2016 when the price was $7-$9? If that it so then WOW, you are the man. Shouldn't your return be like over 100x?
Last edited by mrJustice on Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:58 pm

Chill guys, no need to be so defensive, just take a deep breath and everything is gonna be good  ;)

I never said that your daddy arbusers did something wrong, on the contrary I congratulated him for making profit!

I only offered second opinion which is that value investing might be better than trading. I did not insist that everyone has to agree with that but simply stimulated thought process so that you might have an opportunity to learn something or think about it from different angle and then decide yourself which method suits you best. Who knows maybe arbusers himself will think about it and will consider other ways to value crypto. Maybe my encouragement to research such topics as Ethereum 2.0, DeFi growth, upcoming layer 2 scaling solutions and how it is all connected to new business opportunities will provide to be more useful to determine value in long term instead of worrying about what ETH price is going to be after 1 day, week or month.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:01 pm

cortomaltese wrote: When above ATH the only indicator may be Fibonacci levels which can help sometimes , it's magical how Fibonacci number can be applied to almost any aspect!
The Elliot Wave Theory is extremely unhelpful in this environment. I wouldn't trust it and that is why you dont see me using it in cryptos and in this market cycle.
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Re: Long on ETH

Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:34 pm

mrJustice wrote: Have to disagree with both @VidaBlue and @Wolfie because your statements are wrong. Look at the date of arbusers first post in this thread, it was October 27, 2020. The price of ETH was then something like $400. If he just bought it back then and kept it he would've made like 4x. Instead because of trading he significantly underperformed. These are facts and not my opinion. I am not trying to be negative here, congrats to arbusers for making decision to invest into ETH and bringing this topic here, thus allowing other members to make amazing profits. But at the same time let's not ignore facts. Value investing and trading have little in common. It is never a good idea to try to time the market. The best minds in investing world like Warren Buffet warned against it.

And @Wolfie don't worry about what whales do, you will never catch them up. The moment they decide to cash out everything you will be too late for the party. Don't follow the herd. If you can't see how valuable ETH can become in future then don't invest in it at all! It is good to learn what others do and how they invest but in the end you have to make final decision yourself, it is your money you risk.

By definition, you can’t practice value investing in any cryptocurrency. According to Graham and Dodd, value investing is deriving from the intrinsic value of a common stock independent of its market price. By using a company's factors such as its assets, earnings, and dividend payouts, the intrinsic value of a stock can be found and compared to its market value.

There is a big question wether Bitcoin and the other cryptos keep any intrinsic value. Let’s not answer to that question here and now. Since Bitcoin per se holds no assets, has no profits and shares no dividends, you simply can’t practise value investing with it. It is that simple.

Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. Let’s renew our meeting for the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith?

So if value investing is not possible with cryptos, then you simply can’t accuse me for not selecting and using this investing technique.

And since you mentioned trading, let’s see what trading is. Trading is the process of buying and selling assets for profiting. There is no specific time frame in trading. Have a look at any trading definition you wish. Time is not a trading factor. Even if you buy a security now, and sell it after 3 years, you again conduct trading. So yes, since I am surfing the crest of the tidal wave, trading is what I do. And trading is what everyone practices the minute he sells something, no matter how long he kept that something.

Mr Justice be very much careful, because you are already a victim of a very dangerous fallacy. Cryptos is not an investment asset to be approached with the classic value investing criteria. They are speculative assets and they must be approached with speculation criteria based on their prices and only their prices. That is why I select to approach these markets based on what I see on the graphs. Maybe some times you see me speaking of investment, but this is for simplicity reasons and for an easy language.

And of course, the forum is open for everyone who is willing to share his practices with us. We will all learn.
Last edited by arbusers on Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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