Hello,
I have been toggling with middles and wondering if they are really worth it. While at it, I came up to this little piece of calculation:
Went to oddstorm to get a middle, and this one appeared as a 4.97:
Ecuador - France
U 4.5 - Unibet at 1.16 Stake: 100
O 3.5 - Bwin at 2.95 Stake: 39.32
Condition is: Total 4 goals to be scored.
Ok. Seems a regular middle and I went doing some calculations:
0-3 Goals : 100*0.16 = +16€ - 39.32 = -23.32€
5 or more Goals: 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€ - 100 = -23.33€
4 Goals: 100*0.16 = 16€ + 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€ = 92.67€
Now, it basically says, you risk 23.32€ to win 92.67€.
Or, in other terms, you bet 23,32€ at 4.97 odd = (23.32*3.97) = 92.58€
Now, funny fact is the odd at Sportingbet for total of exactly 4 goals scored is 5.5..... with a 23.32 bet = 104.94€ > 92.67€
So, why bet on this middle????
Middles question
- mvroldan
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: Middles question
Analyzing a Polish Middle now, this gives under the same bookie so all alarms went off:
Polish Middle: 3.32 (34.52%)(Condition: NOT Match Draw)
USA vs Germany (International, World Cup ) (Thu 26 Jun, 16:00)
AH 1 (0) 6.750 100.00 (Unibet)
2 1.680 401.78 (Unibet)
Stake : 501.78
If Lost: -401.78
If Win : 173.22
Ok, so i'm basically backing DC 12 at 1.43 and some change. If we go to the DC market, 12 in unibet is at 1.44!!!
401.78*1.44 = 176.78 > 173.22
Again... whats the point in middles.... If there is a middle, most likely there is a surebet since it has to be overvalued in one side
Polish Middle: 3.32 (34.52%)(Condition: NOT Match Draw)
USA vs Germany (International, World Cup ) (Thu 26 Jun, 16:00)
AH 1 (0) 6.750 100.00 (Unibet)
2 1.680 401.78 (Unibet)
Stake : 501.78
If Lost: -401.78
If Win : 173.22
Ok, so i'm basically backing DC 12 at 1.43 and some change. If we go to the DC market, 12 in unibet is at 1.44!!!
401.78*1.44 = 176.78 > 173.22
Again... whats the point in middles.... If there is a middle, most likely there is a surebet since it has to be overvalued in one side
- ppintaluba
- Pro
- Contact:
- Karma: 42
- Location: Uruguay
Post
There are also cases where it's an arbitrage and a middle.
Re: Middles question
You should bet on middles if it's worth. You placed just a bad example. There are many examples where it is good to place a middle.mvroldan wrote: Hello,
I have been toggling with middles and wondering if they are really worth it. While at it, I came up to this little piece of calculation:
Went to oddstorm to get a middle, and this one appeared as a 4.97:
Ecuador - France
U 4.5 - Unibet at 1.16 Stake: 100
O 3.5 - Bwin at 2.95 Stake: 39.32
Condition is: Total 4 goals to be scored.
Ok. Seems a regular middle and I went doing some calculations:
0-3 Goals : 100*0.16 = +16€ - 39.32 = -23.32€
5 or more Goals: 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€ - 100 = -23.33€
4 Goals: 100*0.16 = 16€ + 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€ = 92.67€
Now, it basically says, you risk 23.32€ to win 92.67€.
Or, in other terms, you bet 23,32€ at 4.97 odd = (23.32*3.97) = 92.58€
Now, funny fact is the odd at Sportingbet for total of exactly 4 goals scored is 5.5..... with a 23.32 bet = 104.94€ > 92.67€
So, why bet on this middle????
There are also cases where it's an arbitrage and a middle.
Smart Bet Tracker
www.smartbettracker.com
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- ranrom
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Middles question
The issue is to decide if place an arb or a middle if the you have the opportunity. If the win from arb is marginal I prefer to try the middle, even if it is negative but has value in it.
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