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My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:39 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
alessandrosm wrote: I use multi-accounting. 3 accounts per day on average.
Thank you Alessandro. Multiaccounting (yes or no?) was the information I was looking for. Since you have x number of multi-accounts, the numbers now add up.
How is it that Bet365 wouldn't be able to detect Alessandro's multiple accounts? You would think it would stick out like a sore thumb? 3 accounts from the same country, maybe the same city, all placing 200 limit bets every day on the same events with a Bot. Now, you might say they have thousands of accounts and might not notice, but they must certainly look closely at winning accounts, those making bets with a Bot and those making regular withdrawals. I would think they could even employ their own Bot to constantly be checking for things like this.

Is Bet365 considered a soft book? Is that why they are a favorite target here of Value Bettors? And yet they reported record profits recently.
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:01 pm

barnstorm wrote: Is Bet365 considered a soft book? Is that why they are a favorite target here of Value Bettors? And yet they reported record profits recently.
One must take into account the huge client basis of millions of square bettors Bet365 has.
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:06 pm

arbusers wrote:
barnstorm wrote: Is Bet365 considered a soft book? Is that why they are a favorite target here of Value Bettors? And yet they reported record profits recently.
One must take into account the huge client basis of millions of square bettors Bet365 has.
By that, you mean all those square bettors will influence Bet365s line and they will move it and create value bets for sharps?

I thought Books only moved lines on Sharp action.

Maybe when the square amount wagered gets so high the Books have to move it a little, and that creates value for the sharps?
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:28 pm

Bet365 is indeed a soft bookmaker. They do announce huge profits each year, even when so many value bettors are targetting them, simply because the pool of square action is an ocean.
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:32 pm

I'll have to see if I can play at Bet365 yet from here in the U.S. I'm sure they are itching to get into the U.S. market now that things have relaxed here. Not sure they are open yet.
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:30 am

The topic in interesting. I have dont value bets manually.
But one question how do you get 200 bets per day?
Even 365 there arent so much soft lines
Second question is. How you are making 200eur bets? My limited account max bet is smth 10 eur big leagues
And last question. Isnt bet365 limit to 0 if they find that you win every month?
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:37 pm

arbusers wrote: Bet365 is indeed a soft bookmaker. They do announce huge profits each year, even when so many value bettors are targeting them, simply because the pool of square action is an ocean.
Okay, so despite the rise of more info for the general public and the rise of syndicates and arbers and value bettors, Books can still skew the lines and take the money from the Squares?

I thought lines were becoming sharper due to more sharp players and syndicates and this would actually help the squares lessen their losses, as they should be getting better and better lines with more and bigger sharp action. But you say there is still a whole lot more square money than sharp money, so the books are happy to keep offering bad lines and taking the square money and then do their best not to share their profits with the sharps and arbers and value bettors.

Does that about sum it up?
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:51 pm

I am not talking about books in general but I m talking about Bet365 specifically. Bet365 is one of the best and faster bookmakers to identify and limit sharp action. Just search in our forum and elsewhere.
The amount of sharp action received by Bet365 is far less than the amount of square action. That is why they are able to maintain their profitability.
One has to look at a global level to understand what is going on. You will not have the correct picture by judging from the UK or the US markets.
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:54 pm

There is very easy explanations.
Lots of bookies afraid of arbers like a plague. They limit you after 1 bet or 3 bet....
But also they do lots of harm to the clients. They limit even highrollers, or semi arbers-gamblers.
Semi-gamblers go the slots, if they have win some money in weak lines.
Usually, these highrollers have lots of friends who are as well highrollers...
And they are like advertisement channel to them that this bookie is shit, I can only make 10 euros bets to the MANU-STAY AWAY

To sum it up. Bet365 doesn't care about small arber actions, but they will have all the gamblers and highrollers actions
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:38 pm

Almanacc wrote: Friends, hello everyone!
Sorry for my English  ;)

We are the Almanacc team, I create this topic in order to share my experience in Value. I would also like to find interested people with whom I can exchange experiences and some interesting developments in the field of Value Betting.

All our work is based on work with the Bet365 bookmaker. I will start with the history of working with this bookmaker. In February 2019, our team collected a 101,000-match dataset from the forks of the Positivebet scanner. Further, this dataset was analyzed in detail, analysis was performed in Python using the standard libraries pandas, numpy, scipy, plotly.

In the course of our work, we wrote our own basic functions that facilitated the further analysis of such a large dataset. (A little later I will show you an example from our dataset)

After a preliminary analysis, we began to build a mathematical model using a genetic algorithm to optimize and select parameters. One of the parameters was selected using the xgboost algorithm. (I can tell in more detail if this is interesting to someone)

From the results, the algorithm for 4 months earned 100,000 euros. The financial strategy assumed a 2 percent flat (2 percent were derived experimentally, show the best combination of ROI, maximum drawdown)

The average ROI for the period from April to July was 7 percent. I can give a list of bookmakers with whom Value was in an individual communication. Below I will attach the MeanValue chart for the period from April to July 2019

I would like to talk with teams or professionals who also work deeply with Value on the topic of exchange of experience.
I wish you success and victories!
Hi.

I think I'm doing the same thing you're doing.

I wanted to write you a private message, but the site doesn't allow it. It would be interesting to talk to you. You write that you collected 101,000 data from forks. Did you just take data from the Positivebet scanner or use Autobot?
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:31 pm

bettomane wrote:
alessandrosm wrote: Hello! I’m talking about value. I myself work on value, I have a good profit at a distance (by the way, it’s like yours) from 5-10 every month, I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month.
Now with my partner as a programmer, I am doing automation. It would be interesting to communicate with you, share experiences. I know that few people use valui people, because of the fear of losing money, it is therefore nice to see a like-minded person. You wrote that you used positivebet, I use it too, are you by any chance not from Russia?
Hello Alessandro , if you are italian we can talk about valuebetting in our country .
write me if you want swap some infos

ciao
I'm Italian too, and I'm interesting to swap info :)

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