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My valuebetting system

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: My valuebetting system

Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:09 pm

Hello again Marko Kostic,
I'm a little busy right now (Eurocup Basketball), I'm going to answer to you after some time today.
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Re: My valuebetting system

Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:27 pm

marko kostic wrote:
Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:23 pm


Hi, old friend! :)

I haven't seen the tag because it was off, but I came across this post accidentaly so here I am.

I'm doing great, I tested a system, changed a lot of things, but I feel really confident right now. My tests were about 8.5% yield, 10% EV, 40% ROI on flat stakes, and 70% on a geometric staking model. Three days ago I figured out it wasn't worth waiting anymore, and cashed out $2000 for valuebetting. The first day I made the single biggest loss in my, short I should say :), betting career, but nevertheless I still feel very confident, and have recovered about 50% of the loss in only the second day. After all, this is a long game, and I'm not concerned about day to day balances. If anything, I'm glad that variance hit me in the face. I wrote a really long post, but the site just crashed on me when I tried to submit it, but I will post numbers and graphs and scientific stuff about my progress in a few days time. These days I'm trying to get into live valuebetting, and prepare for the future with way bigger stakes.

Right now I don't have any questions, but fore sure will sometime in the near future.

How are you doing? Link me a interesting post or discussion from recent times. Thanks for checking in, hope you're doing great as well!


I'm glad to hear you're successfully walkin' on your evolution path in the business.

Seems to me, that you have chosen some degree of an aggressive approach in the business. I mean several things:
For a newcomer player like you, a ten percent positive expected value sounds OK, simply monitor if that is a computed by yourself EV, or a real EV in the practice. For a rookie like you, the most important thing at that moment is not to achieve a bigger EV immediately, but to provide yourself with a stable in the time positive EV. Once mastering that, later you may experiment with the possible ways to achieve a stable bigger expected value. Forty percent ROI when flat staking / 70 percent ROI when geometric staking, warns me of some alarm for a possible crash someday, if you lose control over the situation. Maybe several months with some degree of moderate staking, while mastering steady profit, caused by a stable in time-line positive expected value, may be appropriate for you. Don't be fooled by some short-time profits and recovery. Fifty percent recovery from previous losses within a day sounds to me awfully. You may sink some day due to such an aggressive chasing of losses. The stable positive EV sooner or later will cure the variance. How do you see your approach now five years from now? If you may take a look 5 years in the future, what do you think, how are you goin' to your situations now?
You're making only value bets or you're also practicing a trading approach on the exchanges?
Anyway, congratulations on the dedication to your business and take care of your money.

Regardin' your question, I'm well, thanks. I'm re-reading literature by Nassim Taleb and Spyros Makridakis. Diggin' on the several sports like Soccer (all the World events), Basketball (the current events like Euroleague and similars, NBA, NCAA basketball - the Semifinals and the Final soon, and lately estimating real net value and possible future value regarding Željko Obradović's influence over Partizan in the ABA League and the Eurocup, and many, many more things in that sport), Tennis (All the tournaments), Cricket (IPL T20 these days, mostly trading). The horse racings are on hold at the moment. Some other sports are possible for me to participate in, too.

All the forum is very interesting.
I post in some of the threads, too. You're welcome and I'll be glad to discuss some things there in other topics.

You say in your posting, the site crashed when trying to submit anything, send PM to the admin to fix it.

Regards and nice profits :)
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Re: My valuebetting system

Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:05 pm

marko kostic wrote:
Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:23 pm
I will post numbers and graphs and scientific stuff about my progress in a few days time.
Marko, bear in mind, the bookmakers and others also read here. It's advisable not to reveal in big detail your system and approaches. Simply publish more general things, if it is appropriate at all and that will not cause harm to your business. That way the value, find by your method, will not disappear for you. And avoid mentioning the dollar or euro amounts, they may be pinpointed by you as a percent of the bank, or as betting units.
Wish you a success :)

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