Arbusers

So past 7 months i been checking out the feed of oddsportal as some kind of experiment. https://www.oddsportal.com/community/feed/
I thought at first the idea was good. People can share their tips for free, and you can see the performance of the tips. Once a tip is posted you can't change anymore so i thought fraud is pretty hard to do. So in theory say you find a tipster who has been doing it for years, has a sample size of thousands of bets and with 3% or more yield, then from a statistical perspective it's probably going to be a winning strategy. This is kind of the same as doing backtests. At least it made sense to me...

Anyway the problem with most of these tipsters is this: when you post a tip on oddsportal it selects the best odds among many bookmakers automatically. So there might be some exotic bookmaker (that also limits sharps) that has this bet at those odds. Usually you can't get the bet at the same odds unless you have unlimited bookmaker accounts.

For example take this user (just a random example): https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/Teheta/

2231 bets, 3% yield and over 4 years timespan. You would say this is pretty decent, a winning strategy for sure. But then if you check the statistics. Average odds are -1.8%, this means if you wouldn't get the best price available you actually lost money. Then if you look at ROI by bookmaker, it's all negative. Which means this user is just comparing bookies and you only would have made money if some bookie is wrong. So you need like 20-30 bookie accounts for it to work.

Or take this user as another example: https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/Hula/statistics/
9033 bets 5.5% yield. That does look pretty good.
But then the average odds are -3.9%. And all the ROI by bookmaker is quite negative. Of those 9033 bets pinnacle had the bet 5599 times. If you would have took the average price available on pinnacle at the time you would been negative -7%. So this is only going to be profitable strategy if you have 30 bookmaker accounts then get the absolute best price available (because they likely made a mistake). He's probably even steam chasing against pinnacle because it's so negative ROI.

What i did as an experiment to see if following tipsters is profitable, i selected the best 100-200 tipster of the platform that all have a positive yield over thousands of bets minimum. Then i just tracked the bets. I been profitable for the first 2 months but at that time i had many softbookie accounts and could easy shop for lines on prop bets. Then it all went down. Last 5 months in a row been negative. I should probably consider it a failed experiment at this point. -2.3% over 4218 bets. I tried to bet on a lot of things to get a big sample size.

It would be better if you could actually track the real odds you got on a bet like on blogabet. What happens now is i think lot of these tipsters make their performance look better then it is in reality by putting in some lucrative prop bets and such. But i suspect on big leagues and sharps they almost all lose.

There might be some exceptions but you probably can almost count them on 2 hands, these are some accounts that do seem to have profitable average odds or profitable ROI on sharps:
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/Chertyakka/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/eindbaas/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/SSSR/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/Joazgz/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/Rejsan/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/filipmiet/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/sergei7230/
https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/DrifterSpirit/

But since this site selects the best odds available you can't really be sure anymore about the real performance. Nobody is really making 15% consistently on sharps. 3-5% i could maybe believe.

This is my statistics btw