Arbusers

One of the most legendary threads in our forum is the thread about the Greek stock market. I started it in 2012 and I finished it in 2020. It encapsulated one of the biggest financial dramas of western history that included the entry of the IMF in the country, the subsequent loosening of the social contract between people and government, the rise to power of the neo-communists, the collapse of the banking system, and the catharsis of the end of the crisis.

If you have the courage to read it, you can find the thread here.

This drama was very well covered by all serious mass media organisation of the planet. Because of the nature of my work during these years, I was in a position to understand things and facts that never found their ways into the mass media. I was privileged and at the same time condemned to be a witness of this drama from a very unique angle.

In retrospect, I could change some of my opinions, some of my Elliott Wave counting and some of my classic Technical Analysis I used to analyse the market. But it is true, my mistakes are minimal and could be omitted in-front of the very general picture of the situation, that was presented to our members almost perfectly. I m wondering, how many of our members of that time are still here with us.

So today, I will come with some socking news to you. I strongly recommend that you bookmark this post and this thread, and come back to read it every now and then in the years to come. Trust me, it will save you lots of time and money. It might become a beacon for your future life. While we all should hope for the best, we should also prepare for the worst. After all, surviving is human’s main job for tenths of thousands of years.

I believe the Greek stock market is one cycle ahead of every mature western stock market. Because of this, it gives us the chance to preview what lies ahead. It can be used as a cheat code, a blue print of the future. Of course we should always keep in mind the proportions. It would be a mistake to copy bit by bit the Greek adventure and paste it in the future adventure of the West. Be openminded and not dogmatic.


In my following post, I will explain why I believe the Greek Stock Market is ahead of the other Stock Markets.

So what makes me say the Greek stock market is one cycle ahead of every mature western market?

It is not only that ancient History with Greece as the birth place of the western civilisation. This is common knowledge. Modern History indicates that Greece is a social laboratory where test results are later repeated in the rest of the western world. Some examples:

- Greece has an impeccable record of choosing the right sides and thus staying in the right side of history. Ever.
- Greece has the deepest continuous historical imprint in this planet, only followed by China in distance.
- The Greek revolution against the Ottoman barbarism was the beginning of the end of all European Imperial Powers. It was the Ariadne’s thread that destroyed the Ottoman, the Austrian, the Russian and the Prussian empires.
- Greece was the first European nation to resist the German and Italian occupation during WWII. National resistances of the rest of Europe simply followed the Greek paradigm.
- The Greek civil war against the communists (1944-49) was the first cold war incident even before the term was coined. Many other wars of this type followed in the next decades.
- The restoration of Democracy in 1974, was the blueprint that Spain, Portugal, South America and others followed to restore their own Democracies.
- Not to mention that Democracy was born in Greece.

With that said, the rest of the planet should always keep an eye on Greece to interpret and correctly determine the results of the social laboratory.

The most important and recent test, was the Greek debt crisis of 2009-2019.
Fast forward to today and the rest of the West sees the abyss of its own debt crisis. The West as a whole finds itself at the same position like Greece 10-20 years ago.
On top of that, Greece is the real breakwater that stops barbarism coming from the East. It was Greece that stopped the Persians, it was the Byzantine empire that stopped the Arabs. Of course credits must be given to the Polish, the Austrians and the Franks for stopping the Ottomans and the Arabs when Greeks were under the Ottoman yoke.
Today, Greece deals with a revisionist and Islamic power called Turkey. Proportionally, now the West has to deal with all revisionist powers of the planet combined (China, Russia, Islamic world etc).
The similarities are so striking that make me think the West is one cycle behind Greece.

I do not intent to fuel this thread regularly. I will only post here when I really feel to post. These are thoughts that can only be told softly and of course only among trusted people. In a public forum like this, the circle is unfortunately open.

Good luck.

Disclaimer. You need a certain experience and knowledge to understand the following.

Some weeks ago Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin. This interview contained multiple messages to multiple audiences. Only some specialists are able to interpret it correctly. I am convinced that even the interviewer is not able to understand the complete range of what was said by the interviewee. Thus, the mass media failed to highlight the most important statement of the interview. I am quoting it for you:

Vladimir Putin: ''It seems that there has never been anything like the Roman Empire in the history of mankind. Nevertheless, the potential of the barbarians gradually grew, as did their population. In general, the barbarians were getting stronger and began to develop economically, as we would say today. This eventually led to the collapse of the Roman Empire and the regime imposed by the Romans. However, it took five centuries for the Roman Empire to fall apart. The difference with what is happening now is that all the processes of change are happening at a much faster pace than in Roman times''.

After that, Carlson started asking Putin about... Artificial Intelligence.

That was Putin's biggest mistake in this interview. He unintentionally paralleled the West with the civilised world, and the revisionist powers with Barbarism. Thus, he confirmed the following thought:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:04 pm

Proportionally, now the West has to deal with all revisionist powers of the planet combined (China, Russia, Islamic world etc).

Excellent Educational Topic by the Admin!

Each of us knows people uneducated in History and Philosophy, living with a short time horizon, blinded by the comforts of modern civilization, who think that these things do not concern them and are not their problem in their consumer world. But what a shock it would be if only they could think deeply…

Ancient and later philosophers have left wonderful materials for thought, or as once Herodotus said for a better World: "The only good is Knowledge, and the only evil is ignorance"...

I recover this part of a post from the Greek Market thread;

2nd: Wave C ends below 470. This is the negative scenario for Greece. A general index below 470 will mean that all achievements since the 1980s will be ruined and forgotten. It will put Greece within a Balkan context and not a European one. It also means that the level of 470 will become a roof. This roof will be removed (if ever) after many decades. The general index will be bouncing between the final bottom and 470 several times. The magnitude of the catastrophe will be immense. The country will be so much weak, that a major geopolitical event will be ante portas, dismembering it and producing irreversible results. According to Elliott theory, this kind of waves ends with revolutions, wars, or other major events of this type.


Does this prediction also apply for Europe 20 years after Greek Collapse?

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:39 pm

Wave C ends below 470.

In reality the Greek Index stayed below 470 for just 4 days, with a weekly close. That was very narrow.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: Does this prediction also apply for Europe 20 years after Greek Collapse?

My answer is this...

arbusers wrote: we should always keep in mind the proportions. It would be a mistake to copy bit by bit the Greek adventure and paste it in the future adventure of the West. Be openminded and not dogmatic.

A good friend reminded me the following quote from Victor Hugo: ''The world is the expanding Greece and Greece is the shrinking world''. That was said in the 19th century and it was valid back then when almost all the planet belonged to the West..
Today the world is changing to a different direction and the West is not dominating the planet. That makes me rephrase the quote to the following: ''The West is the expanding Greece and Greece is the shrinking West''.

Here is a couple of phrases, from a Spanish writer and philosopher, recently deceased named Fernando Sánchez Dragó talking in 2008-09 aproximately in a TV discussion, about the past crisis, which at that time was in all its harshness;


"In Universal History, there are telluric movements that, when their time comes, make their way at a dizzying speed and cannot be stopped. There was a millennium that belonged to the Mediterranean: the millennium of the Nativity, of Hellas, of Egypt... Then another millennium belonged to the Atlantic, the one of the United States, England, the colonial empires... and now comes the millennium of the Pacific. There are three major emerging blocks in the world: one is Russia, another is China and Southeast Asia, and the other is the Muslim countries. These last ones are disunited among themselves, but at the moment they unite, Europe will become a theme park, a museum."


"We are like the theologians of Byzantium discussing the sex of angels while the Turks climb the walls of Constantinople. We are not facing a situation of crisis, nor even recession, nor depression, we are facing the colossal collapse of an entire political, cultural, economic, social, spiritual, and philosophical system."

I had a very long discussion with one of our members in regards to this thread who obviously disagrees with the example of Greece as a global social laboratory. So I decided to mention some more examples in order to illustrate my opinion better.

I had the privilege to meet one of the biggest (if not the biggest) marketing guru on earth. He was the mastermind behind the most successful advertisement ever conducted on a global scale. This is studied in all serious marketing schools, and books are written on it. It is about ''change''.
The figure that ordered the advertisement had doubts if the message ''change'' would be effective, so he decided to ask all big branches globally before launching the campaign to see what the opinions would be.

The US branch, was limboing in indecision (as always)
The UK branch, being conservative (as always) rejected the idea.
The Japanese branch, being super conservative (as always) rejected the idea as well.

So the guru said let's ask the tiny Greek branch. The Greek branch had a single and quick look at the video and it was thrilled. They said it was the best message ever. The figure decided to take a huge risk and ordered for the launch of the campaign. Obviously, it sent the company that almost no-one knew by that time, to the stratosphere. This company is in your home if not in your palm as you read these lines. The Greeks knew better.

The guru demanded one Greek to be included in the video as a thank you to those who knew best.

You might have noticed that Greece is now enforcing a six-day workweek for some industries. This comes as the rest of the western world zigs toward a four-day workweek. Most of the worlds mainstream media ridiculed these news, displaying how clueless they are.

As I stated in the beginning of this thread, ''Greece is a social laboratory where test results are later repeated in the rest of the western world''. Thus, these news should be prophetic to everyone as they show what comes ahead. And why do you think the 6-day workweek is ahead for the Western world?

Well, it is because of competition. The majority of the 2nd and 3rd world countries have a 7-day workweek, while some countries keep the 6-day workweek for religious reasons. The West simple can't compete with them with a 4 or 5 day workweek.

So, now you know. If the 6-day workweek becomes a success in Greece, it will knock your door very soon.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:04 pm

Proportionally, now the West has to deal with all revisionist powers of the planet combined (China, Russia, Islamic world etc).

I would like to further highlight this statement by bringing to your attention the recent post of Dmitry Medvedev on telegram 2 days ago. These days he serves as Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council.

''Europe must be punished by all available means: political, economic, and various hybrid strategies. We must also encourage any destructive processes within Europe. Long live the aggressive marauders on its historic streets! Glory to the crowds of migrants wreaking havoc and destroying supposed European values with hatred!''

Have no doubt, there is a war against civilisation as we know it.

In a previous post, I highlighted that civilised world (what is called today ''the West'') has to deal with all revisionist powers of the planet combined (China, Russia, Islamic world etc). In this clash of Titans, the West has no luxury to fight as a fragmented body. It seems to me that the US do not understand what lies ahead and she chooses to fragment the lines by alienating their best allies.

Canadians and Americans fought and died together in Normandy, Iraq and Afghanistan. Canadians freed the American hostages of the Tehran embassy siege. Canadians landed 100s of planes in their airports during the 9/11 attack, and thus saved some 100.000 lives. Probably you never heard of this before.

What happened to this unbreakable bond?
The recent claims of the US to annex Canada as the 51st stage, and the tariffs on the Canadian economy had an impact.

This impact was illustrated perfectly yesterday, when Canadians booed the US national anthem during a hockey game. But let’s overpass the banal nationalism, and lets see what happened when the game started. I know it is trivial, but make sure you watch it till the end. Everything happened in just 9 (nine) seconds of game play. I haven’t seen anything like that before:





Fighting the scourge of the global left is something I can understand and agree with. But treating your best ally like this, is shooting your own head, not even foot. Soon Trudeau will go, and he will be replaced by Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre is a much bigger size and character compared to Trudeau. He is a kind of person you want by your side, not against you.

And then, let me jump to Ukraine. For the past 3 years, there was an untold agreement ''We (Ukrainians) provide the blood, You (the West) provide the weapons''. This agreement is about to brake in the next days. How can you turn your back to this? I was taught about the 1938 Munich agreement by which Czechoslovakia was handed to Germany. What a shame for England? By surrendering Ukraine to Russia, the same shame will spill over to the USA. These will be studied in Universities for centuries.

Now allow me to forward my thinking some steps ahead. We are just before massive US tariffs on almost everyone, friend or foe. For those who have no idea about history, let me remind you that the 1929-30 crash had his origins in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which was enacted in 1930.

The tariff act prompted retaliatory tariffs by all US allies of the time, including the UK, France, even Canada. The resulting trade war had a direct impact to those who were supposed to be protected, namely the US farmers and the US banks.

Do you hear any bells?

The fragmentation of the West is now accelerating. In a previous post…

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2025 1:52 pm

...I highlighted that civilised world (what is called today ''the West'') has to deal with all revisionist powers of the planet combined (China, Russia, Islamic world etc). In this clash of Titans, the West has no luxury to fight as a fragmented body. It seems to me that the US do not understand what lies ahead and she chooses to fragment the lines by alienating their best allies.

According to the USA, it was Ukraine that started the war against Russia, not the other way around. It is Zelensky who is a dictator, not Putin. The US has no state continuum and the President is the state. ''L'État, c'est moi'', or in English ''I am the state''. What a miserable distortion!

A great or a regional power takes into account which states are expendable or which are becoming and begins to lead them to the Procrustean bed in good time. Often this is invisible but at some point it becomes a reality and everyone realises it, especially the victim who is slaughtered, dismembered and divided on the basis of clientelistic relationships of eternal and uninterrupted strategic games. This is what is happening in Ukraine right now.





But the game is played wrongfully as the offensive realism should not sacrifice an asset without a fight, that early, so easy, and with so many potentials lost. All other actors, but the USA, are playing the game correctly. You shouldn’t expect to win a game that you are not aware of the rules. Everyone with a limited knowledge of history understands the luck of leadership in the civilised world, as the US is now siding Russia, China and North Korea in UN resolutions.


Again, fighting the scourge of the global left and political correctness is something I can understand and agree with. But treating your allies like this, fragmenting your own forces and fronts, is shooting your own head, not even foot.

With US tariffs officially announced against Canada and Europe, the US choose the wrong sides, and these sides are against former allies. The civilised world is fragmented. As a result, all revisionist powers (Russia, China, Turkey, Islamic world) will have the luxury to confront a divided and fragmented West.

Very bad times ahead.

This is an absolutely excellent thread with a lot of valueble information with so many different aspects, political, economical ect.
As an European with a liberal mindset, I see all the red flags and the wrong direction things are going at the moment for Europe, especially after Trump's political position regarding the Russia Ukrania war.

To me it seems like Trump don't really care a lot about Ukraine, he just wants the war to end and the best economical scenario for America. Then again tariffs and taxes to everyone especially allies seems so counterintuitive, but what do I know.

Somtimes you need drastical changes to make changes for the good. This should be a wakeup call for Europe, and who knows whats gonna happen. I still have hope.

On a more personally note, im curious how you take advantages on this situation. As with betting, crypto and everthing else, volatile markets creates opportunities, maybe it is still to early to say?