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One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

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CharlieSheen99
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Wed Mar 05, 2025 3:56 pm

Lumberjack wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 3:04 pm

To me it seems like Trump don't really care a lot about Ukraine, he just wants the war to end and the best economical scenario for America. Then again tariffs and taxes to everyone especially allies seems so counterintuitive, but what do I know.

In my opinion, Trump is trying to divide the axis Beijing-Moscow, attracting Russia to his side. That way the US will be able to confront China directly, and alone. Russia plays so well their position as Third world power. Far away from the first two, but enough powerful to be decisive.
I believe that Trump will try to defeat or attract other Beijing allies in the future. Maybe Teheran is the next one.
About Europeans, i don't understand exactly what is he doing, to be honest....
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Wed Mar 05, 2025 5:21 pm

As long as the actions of global Eastern revisionists from the modern territories of the ideological heirs of the Golden Horde (Genghis Khan) do not harm and destroy the well-intentioned everyday Life of those who are lucky enough to live in a Free World, many people will not reconsider the great danger to the modern Free World and its values ​​of freedom emanating from the Western-born Trojan horse codenamed "Krasnov" and his junta, the interesting thing is that all of the junta's members have been tried or have problems with the judicial system.
The Ukrainian-born Jan III Sobieski, Great King of Rzeczpospolita (РІЧ ПОСПОЛИТА), once saved the divided Western World in Vienna in 1683. I think contemporary Rzeczpospolita is one of the societies, that are among the most sensible in this dangerous situation and they never succumb to the hybrid propaganda from the heirs of the Golden Horde, therefore they can save the Free World again if they want to.

Addendum: If Henryk Sienkiewicz were alive today, he would ask us: Quo Vadis, Modern Western Society? And why did you so exacerbate this threat to the Civilized World, receiving the gifts of the Danaans from the territories of the eastern satrapies, after all the history lectures from the era of Herodotus until now?
Last edited by arb12 on Wed Mar 05, 2025 6:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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arbusers
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Wed Mar 05, 2025 5:57 pm

Lumberjack wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 3:04 pm
how you take advantages on this situation.

With capital preservation, defensive strategies and mentally preparing for the right mindset.

Speaking some more about the mental preparation for the right mindset, I am asking you to have a look in the BTC thread and see that mindset during the months before the bottoming process. That was the mindset of a cyclical process that lasted 4 years. Now imagine a cyclical process that lasts 100 years and realise the size of the opportunity.
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Thu Mar 06, 2025 10:42 am

arbusers wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 5:57 pm
Lumberjack wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 3:04 pm
how you take advantages on this situation.

With capital preservation, defensive strategies and mentally preparing for the right mindset.

Speaking some more about the mental preparation for the right mindset, I am asking you to have a look in the BTC thread and see that mindset during the months before the bottoming process. That was the mindset of a cyclical process that lasted 4 years. Now imagine a cyclical process that lasts 100 years and realise the size of the opportunity.
One approach could be buying European defence companie's stocks , however as you might have checked these stocks already skyrocketed but even if short term is risky after this rise in price , long term is probably still good investment...
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Thu Mar 06, 2025 11:22 am

cortomaltese wrote:
Thu Mar 06, 2025 10:42 am

One approach could be buying European defence companie's stocks , however as you might have checked these stocks already skyrocketed but even if short term is risky after this rise in price , long term is probably still good investment...
RheinMetal is skyrocketing like there are no tomorrow since the start of the war, and even more since Trump arrived.
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Thu Mar 06, 2025 12:46 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 5:57 pm
Lumberjack wrote:
Wed Mar 05, 2025 3:04 pm
how you take advantages on this situation.

With capital preservation, defensive strategies and mentally preparing for the right mindset.

Speaking some more about the mental preparation for the right mindset, I am asking you to have a look in the BTC thread and see that mindset during the months before the bottoming process. That was the mindset of a cyclical process that lasted 4 years. Now imagine a cyclical process that lasts 100 years and realise the size of the opportunity.
Thank you.

That I get, and that's exactly what I am doing. For the first time in many years im out of the market, just observing.

However, my approach have been like this.
1) Focus on betting, I know my markets, I know my skills and I know my limits. This works for me, no need to change it.
2) Money made from betting have been passively invested in stocks (index), crypto (example following your Bitcoin analysis) and other small things like collectibles.

However, I feel like a newbie when it comes to individual stock picking because either I feel its solo based on a gut or an instinct, or I am following people I trust, and again thats an instinct. I guess what I am saying is that I want to be able to read the market and make technical stock analysis, just like picking a valuebet, but I don't know to get to that point. Just like discussed in another thread were you asked how many was interested in learning technical analysis.
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Thu Mar 06, 2025 3:07 pm

There is an excellent book by Barton Biggs - Wealth, War and Wisdom. You can find all the information regarding capital preservation, industries, etc. How do stock market behaved in times/war/every-day news. There is no one size fits all solution - it depends on personal situation/experiences and circumstances. And most importantly - we don't know which side we are going to land - winning or losing.

All we can do is prepare. Dozen of gold coins deeply hidden, great personal relationships, trusted community, basement full with food/medicine is a great start. Then comes personal preference.
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Mon Mar 10, 2025 12:17 pm

The thinking process of this thread is based on the following pillar:

arbusers wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:04 pm
Modern History indicates that Greece is a social laboratory where test results are later repeated in the rest of the western world.

These last days, the civilised world (the West) finds out the hard way, that it must re-arm in order to keep the barbarians out. Various analysis' are circulating around commenting on the military strength of Europe, which in reality is non-existent. As expected, Greece is armed to the teeth having to deal with Turkey, a revisionist and Islamic country with no respect to international law. Now the rest of Europe will have to follow the Greek lead and will have to re-arm.

I m simply mentioning the following:

1. Greece has 217 fighter jets of 4th and 4th+ generation. More than Great Britain and France combined.
2. Greece has 1345 last generation tanks. More than Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain combined.
3. Absolutely no European nation holds more ships, submarines and artillery systems than Greece.

Now Europe is starting to understand how it feels to spend 3-4-5% of GDP in arms, and how it feels to live with Barbarians ante-portas. Greece is the social laboratory we must all watch and interpret thoroughly.
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Tue Mar 11, 2025 7:52 am

1. Greece has 217 fighter jets of 4th and 4th+ generation. More than Great Britain and France combined.
2. Greece has 1345 last generation tanks. More than Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain combined.
3. Absolutely no European nation holds more ships, submarines and artillery systems than Greece.
I don't doubt about this figures , but still it seems to me unbelievable that Greece has more ships and submarines than
the all might Royal Navy , once the ruler of the seas
or French Navy !!
How the "mighty" have fallen

Again i have to comment ... maybe European Defence Companies ETF's is a good buy
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Re: One cycle ahead of every mature western stock market

Tue Mar 11, 2025 11:12 am

Spanish case is to study seriously.

We will have soon or later a war with Morroco and still spending almost nothing in defense.
There is no greater blind that the one that does not want to see.

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