Arbusers

But what happens when you get this extra liquidity from the very start? I mean, you didn't place any bet at all, but they still offer you double liquidity. How do they profile you in cases like this? Why do they take this risk?
Thank you.

If referred by arbusers, send me a PM mentioning the account e-mail.
Regards

Hi,

I've been thinking about potential workarounds given that you cannot lay horses on orbit.

My idea is to "Dutch" the field which would effectively achieve the same outcome.

Problem is this is awkward to do in a dynamic market with constant odds fluctuations.

Any ideas on how to most efficiently achieve this? Trading tools I believe is not an option.

Thanks

bettinator wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:36 pm

How it is possible to use a bot on Orbit? Are there specific tools as bots for Betfair or some bot for Betfair modified or have no other choice then place bets manually on orbit?

It is my belief that Orbit is very negative, not to say hostile, when they detect bot action in the accounts. How could it be differently really?

@ Backdoor,
The situation without a possibility to put "lay" positions is really so complicated for Horse Racing, indeed. Among the main challenges here in your situation are the banning of software bots from Betfair White Labels, the dynamics of the odds (resulting in the elimination of the hypothetical desired advantage), and the accumulation of negative expected value if you choose this kind of solution, described by you. Is it possible to test a partial "Dutch" approach, provided that your calculated advantage is clear and the main risks are manageable? Or to switch to some value bets developed according to your criteria, equal to the desired by your effect, if it's profitable in the long run? Backtest some ideas, let's say 5 or 10 years in retrospect, and test them further in the reality. Then your model may output some ideas.

Hi,

Thanks for your thoughts. A partial dutch of say the front of the market excluding false favs could be an alternative using an dutching calculator. Obviously much less efficient than having the lay option however we are where we are as they say!

A partial "Dutch" approach is very dangerous without excellent risk management. The money management and technical analysis are following. The speed of the putting your positions too, otherwise, you'll accumulate negative expected value. Backtest thousands of events "on paper" before trying it for real. Again, aiming in the long run, nothing more.
If you may recognize the false favs in the long run, you may further switch to value positions here. Simply backtest several years in the past of that strategy to optimize it. If you have all the time every day to consider and analyze tens of variables, carefully selected by you regarding horses, tracks, jockeys, and so on. In other words, practice fundamental analysis mainly for value betting, but in my view, that's extremely time-consuming. Additionally, my advice is not to follow the public known variables, but to construct an alternative view.

who powers Orbitx? how do you get double the liquidity of betfair on each event?

betto88t wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:38 am

who powers Orbitx? how do you get double the liquidity of betfair on each event?

I think we covered this question a hundred times here in the forum. You can use the search button too.
When Orbit or an agent offers double (or even more) liquidity, that means they build a 50% position against you. They take risk on their back and they don't send it to Betfair. Basically they are bookmaking. Most probably the profiled you and they determined you will be a loser in the long run.

crowned wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:14 am

But what happens when you get this extra liquidity from the very start? I mean, you didn't place any bet at all, but they still offer you double liquidity. How do they profile you in cases like this? Why do they take this risk?
Thank you.

Bookmakers are profiling players straight from the registration. I suggest you read the following article, it will help you understand what goes on in these business for some years now: portal/players-risk-score/
I am sure Betfair is excellent in profiling players. But at the same time, I am not sure if agents have access to big data pools. Most probably it is too expensive for them and unwanted in their business model who is predominantly based on sharp action. Agents and Orbit would offer bigger limits based on the general hypothesis that only 1 out of 10 customers are long term winners. They can afford this customer to be a winner as long as 9 other customers are losers. And also, they don't worry that much, because sooner or later Betfair will alert them for the smart player, or, they will find out on their own when the player wins much.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 18, 2022 2:10 pm

betto88t wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:38 am

who powers Orbitx? how do you get double the liquidity of betfair on each event?

I think we covered this question a hundred times here in the forum. You can use the search button too.
When Orbit or an agent offers double (or even more) liquidity, that means they build a 50% position against you. They take risk on their back and they don't send it to Betfair. Basically they are bookmaking. Most probably the profiled you and they determined you will be a loser in the long run.

I'll try to be more careful next time I'll use the search button better. the only thing that with arbitrage I lose on the black side instead in tradimg operations on Orbitx are in profit even if only slightly

Bearjew wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:49 am

Was trading the tennis today when the site went ‘down for maintenance’ luckily I didn’t have any money in the markets.

Any idea what would happen if I had an active trade on and the site went down?

Void bets or would they be honored?

Also I wasn’t notified the site was going down from AC or orbit. Where is this info highlighted?

Cheers all

My past experience when trading/betting activities fall under those circumstances - no positions voided at all, after the outage the positions were graded as they were inputted...

When the outage is caused by their market supplier, check their supplier's status on maintenance.betfair.com.

Is there anyway we could get higher limits with Orbit. Of course, I will not touch lower limits and tennis where the bad boys play. I am also looking at Betfair and their volumes are simply pathetic. Not what it used to be. Solutions please.

betto88t wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:02 pm

the only thing that with arbitrage I lose on the black side instead in tradimg operations on Orbitx are in profit even if only slightly

Long term and accurate observations from several arbers are showing that when you practise arbitrage, you lose with sharp bookmaker and exchange like Betfair, Pinnacle and the Asians, and you win with soft bookmakers like WilliamHill, Bet365 etc.
So you should expect money to travel from one side to another, before you recycle it to repeat the process.
If you are noticing that you are a long term winner in Orbit exchange, it means that you are also a long term winner in Betfair. This happens very rarely when you arb, but it happens more often when you trade.
Really, you should be expecting Orbit (or the agent) to react to this, by limiting your account, or by offering a higher commission rate.

hi
I wonder if there is a way someone to contact directly with orbit exchange?