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Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

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luctens
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:28 am

arbitrageon wrote: We arbitrage with betmaxvalue which has really high odds and with marathon or pinacle. On betmaxvalue we lose money and on Marathon or pinacle we win. Simple money simple bussines. Please tell us where you do arbitrage betting?
First post and you're bigging up an unknown book operating out of Costa Rica advertising a UK Gambling Commission licence they don't even have and looks like the website was put together with Clip Art. Give me a break, I wasn't born yesterday. 100% a shill poster. Get this user banned.
Last edited by luctens on Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:38 am

arbitrageon wrote: We arbitrage with betmaxvalue which has really high odds and with marathon or pinacle. On betmaxvalue we lose money and on Marathon or pinacle we win. Simple money simple bussines. Please tell us where you do arbitrage betting?
Sirbobet reloaded. Treat with care.
luctens
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:04 am

Arbusers wrote:
arbitrageon wrote: We arbitrage with betmaxvalue which has really high odds and with marathon or pinacle. On betmaxvalue we lose money and on Marathon or pinacle we win. Simple money simple bussines. Please tell us where you do arbitrage betting?
Sirbobet reloaded. Treat with care.
It's not a case of "treat with care". It's a case of don't go near them with a bargepole.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:15 am

luctens wrote:
Arbusers wrote:
arbitrageon wrote: We arbitrage with betmaxvalue which has really high odds and with marathon or pinacle. On betmaxvalue we lose money and on Marathon or pinacle we win. Simple money simple bussines. Please tell us where you do arbitrage betting?
Sirbobet reloaded. Treat with care.
It's not a case of "treat with care". It's a case of don't go near them with a bargepole.
Some people made good money with Sirbo. Especially those who took advantage of the narrow time window until Sirbo understood the concept of arbitrage.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:23 am

Arbusers wrote:
luctens wrote:
Arbusers wrote: Sirbobet reloaded. Treat with care.
It's not a case of "treat with care". It's a case of don't go near them with a bargepole.
Some people made good money with Sirbo. Especially those who took advantage of the narrow time window until Sirbo understood the concept of arbitrage.
But some people I expect also exposed themselves to great risk of significant money being tied up with significant risk of not getting paid.

The choices out there aren't so bad that we have resort to these kinds of websites. There's risk/reward and then there's blatantly putting yourself out there and asking to be scammed. Looking at this betmaxvalue site, the fake UKGC licence, the extremely cheap look of the website, that it's operated out of Costa Rica and has an obvious shill posting for them. If you don't think that this website crosses the line of "risk/reward" then I don't think that anything will cross your line.
Last edited by luctens on Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:30 am

Arbusers wrote: Sirbobet reloaded. Treat with care.
My line is clearly shown in the above mentioned phrase. Everyone has a different line and everyone has a different operating procedure. One is ready to take a risk another doesn't dare to.
This is not a green light for this bookmaker.
Thank you for the advise.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:24 pm

luctens wrote:
tiha_patnja wrote:
maletaja wrote: betfair earnd like 500 million last year. Business is not bad for 6% commision...
They have premium charge that goes as high as 60% .
Arbusers wrote: I would like to know some more about these initiatives.

The only responsible for the fall of volumes is Betfair itself. They stupidly implement some policies that harms them and the players. Let me mention some, but not all of them.
1. The 6% commission rate. This is actually making them a sports book and not an exchange.
2. Premium Charges. This is giving the wrong signal to all successful bettors.
3. Withdrawal from key countries, even if the local legislation is not that strong and would allow them to continue operate with little effort.
4. The 8 secs delay. Come one, we are all clever here, we know why you are doing this.
5. The fight against court siders.
6. Their will not to offer key accounts the same way they did in the previous years.
And some more reasons that wouldn't be clever to mention.

As for Smarkets, If everything that luctens says is true, somewhere along the way we will test their level of greed. As i see it, they don't wish to have sharp action.
8 sec delay is a good thing because 5 sec delay in crazy countries could be beaten.
There is a lot of bad talk going on about betfair not fighting court siders but you can understand why this could be true when you see that they have 60% premium charge.

Betfair is a brand now and it will be very hard to take it down. When someone says exchange all think Betfair. The liquidity is falling because a lot of countries like Portugal are banned so less liq is on football for example but horses are as liquid as always. Cricket is a rising star of betfair. Betfairs market is mostly UK and UK sports are doing good. BPL has a lot of liquidity but for example Spain lost a lot of liquidity in recent years. There is on Betangel forum an analasys of the volume over the years so I am not imagining what I am saying.

Think that marketing is the key for betfair, take money from the winners and bring new players all the time. Its really hard to make a person change his bookmaker because they just dont care.
Betfair is a brand, but it is now a tainted brand, damage that is irreparable. Most of it's customers hate them and when that is the case, it isn't hard to attract customers to leave when there is a viable alternative. Betfair have put a bulldozer through all of their USPs in recent years and they are continually feeling the ill effects.

A couple of years back they decided to amalgamate it's sportsbook and exchange figures so they don't publish their exchange figures separately now. If their exchange was doing well then I'm sure they wouldn't have done that. I don't know what your talking about with Betfair's volume. It is on the rapid decline, anybody can see that, and it isn't just to do with some countries leaving Betfair. For example a 50-60% drop in Euro 2016 volumes compared with Euro 2012 shows that it's a far more fundamental underlying issue with their exchange. It is a sinking ship and anybody who can't see that is deluded.
Luctens is right about football. I don't know about cricket but with horse racing you mention it's also entirely different market than it used to be. Some markets almost entirely disappeared and pre race win market, which is by far the biggest one, saw huge outflow of proper punters. The liquidity was sustained by the “false” money of traders (where can they go?) which gives misleading impression. The truth is that a lot of real punters walked away from betting horses on BF. Ask those guys at BetAngel you refer to why it's so much harder to trade horses today than it was in the past if the liquidity is the same. The answer is simple: the more square punters in the market the easier it is to take their money. The LESS square punters...
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:53 pm

Bubbles wrote:
luctens wrote:
tiha_patnja wrote: They have premium charge that goes as high as 60% . 8 sec delay is a good thing because 5 sec delay in crazy countries could be beaten.
There is a lot of bad talk going on about betfair not fighting court siders but you can understand why this could be true when you see that they have 60% premium charge.

Betfair is a brand now and it will be very hard to take it down. When someone says exchange all think Betfair. The liquidity is falling because a lot of countries like Portugal are banned so less liq is on football for example but horses are as liquid as always. Cricket is a rising star of betfair. Betfairs market is mostly UK and UK sports are doing good. BPL has a lot of liquidity but for example Spain lost a lot of liquidity in recent years. There is on Betangel forum an analasys of the volume over the years so I am not imagining what I am saying.

Think that marketing is the key for betfair, take money from the winners and bring new players all the time. Its really hard to make a person change his bookmaker because they just dont care.
Betfair is a brand, but it is now a tainted brand, damage that is irreparable. Most of it's customers hate them and when that is the case, it isn't hard to attract customers to leave when there is a viable alternative. Betfair have put a bulldozer through all of their USPs in recent years and they are continually feeling the ill effects.

A couple of years back they decided to amalgamate it's sportsbook and exchange figures so they don't publish their exchange figures separately now. If their exchange was doing well then I'm sure they wouldn't have done that. I don't know what your talking about with Betfair's volume. It is on the rapid decline, anybody can see that, and it isn't just to do with some countries leaving Betfair. For example a 50-60% drop in Euro 2016 volumes compared with Euro 2012 shows that it's a far more fundamental underlying issue with their exchange. It is a sinking ship and anybody who can't see that is deluded.
Luctens is right about football. I don't know about cricket but with horse racing you mention it's also entirely different market than it used to be. Some markets almost entirely disappeared and pre race win market, which is by far the biggest one, saw huge outflow of proper punters. The liquidity was sustained by the “false” money of traders (where can they go?) which gives misleading impression. The truth is that a lot of real punters walked away from betting horses on BF. Ask those guys at BetAngel you refer to why it's so much harder to trade horses today than it was in the past if the liquidity is the same. The answer is simple: the more square punters in the market the easier it is to take their money. The LESS square punters...
Well its harder to trade if you dont adapt. I am constantly learning and I adapt to win, you need to do this in whatever you do in life. For example look at sports. Why are people running faster? jumping higher? Everything is evolving you just have to stay on top of the game! The volumes are lower on football but it is more of a combination of reasons that you and I listed then only yours or mine. Portugal for example has been kicked out of betdair to their .pt site and they had probably the strongest football trading community in the world.

Regarding smarkets, a year ago they were offering jobs in the IT department and one guy from my country that is working there posted that job in one IT jobs group on facebook that I was in. I dont remember them looking for any prodigy's or anything like that. They are developing for a long time now so I am not really sure what to expect. And I am not sure how much do you expect to win if you think that  "questionable decisions" are something we should ignore. Betfair has legalized their "theft" of traders money with PC smarkets just do what they want out of the blue .

If you think that them offering the "best product" will give them volume you are just blind to the situation right in front of you. They already have the best product for punters but they dont care. If you open an acount at betfair you get 5-7% commission at the start. Its 2% at smarkets. Why is then there more volume on betfair ? Betfair isnt the best product on the market for punters but their psychology doesnt care. Look at the bookmakers, why are they still in the market? Because regular Joe doesnt care.

I am pretty sure in what I have written because all the evidence I saw is pointing to that. Them saying that they are building some sort of computer wiz team  means nothing until they get some results. And they should have results by now.

And after that I dont think that without marketing they can compete with others because regular punters dont care.

This is not something that happens only in betting industry. It happens in computer industry all the time. Great products die because only a handful of people can use them and garbage companys selling overpriced products because of their name and societys belief that it is the best. In fact, it is affecting every industry .
Last edited by neofen on Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:39 pm

Smarkets have actually only really been developing for 3 years which is when they changed their focus from social gambling to professional gambling, so you can pretty much cross off the previous 5 years and assess them as having been in business for 3 years. In terms of the quality of people they employ, they have employees they have brought in from over 20 nationalities and I don't think they are going to go all around Europe to just get some low grade people. Their jobs they are currently advertising are up to £90k per year salary so they are definitely going for high class technology staff.

I'm not saying we should ignore the decisions about voiding bets, but we should just look at the bigger picture. No company is perfect, all companies make mistakes or whatever so you always have to weigh up the good and the bad of each company. The only rare issues I've seen people have with Smarkets voiding bets is when they seem to have been obviously manipulating prices or some other funny business. I don't think they should have voided bets even in those situations but when all is said and done, they are only going to take action if blatant price manipulation is going on and if anybody is doing any sort of that funny business and gets into issues, I don't have any sympathy with them. If you play it straight with Smarkets, they play it straight with you. If you try funny games, you may have problems. In the grand scheme of things when looking at an overall picture, that's fair enough.

You say that customers are still using Betfair even though Smarkets are on the market. That's true, but as I said essentially Smarkets have only been in business for 3 years, whereas Betfair have been in business for 16 years, and it takes time to build a big business, the customer base that goes along with it and the volume as well. In terms of recreational customers, it's always going to be tough for an exchange to educate the general public about an exchange as habits die hard, but I think in general the public are becoming more price savvy in many industries and that will slowly filter through to the betting industry and I think Smarkets' extremely simple, no frills product is the one that a betting novice is far more likely to get the hang of rather than any of the other exchanges. It is very obvious that Smarkets are the ones rapidly growing and Betfair are the ones rapidly declining, and they are only going to get closer and closer as each month passes. Even in 3 years compared to Betfair's 16 years, Smarkets are up there or better on a number of market volumes with Betfair and Betfair have had a 13 year head start, that tells you a lot.

They haven't done hardly any marketing and they don't have third party application functionality. These two things alone will stop such a wide range of people being aware of Smarkets and will stop a wide range of people that need these apps to do their daily business. A lot of that will change in time with some marketing and third party app functionality. For example, there are a lot of full time traders that I know that didn't even know Smarkets were still in business until recently, that's the sort of low profile they have kept so far and even with that, Smarkets are still growing at a rapid rate. If you take traders as an example, once Smarkets ramp up their marketing a bit to get the word out and get third party apps to work with them, I believe you will see a mass exodus of Betfair traders who will then have a viable alternative of a trading platform that you can use a third party app with, has way lower commission than Betfair without premium charge and just as good if not better liquidity and obviously if a lot of these traders move across then the liquidity is only going to improve further.

In reality there's only a relative handful of Betfair traders that are keeping the show on the road for Betfair by providing the mass volume that they do, and if a large proportion of them leave when Smarkets fulfils their needs which I believe they will, Betfair will be like a ghost town. It is unbelievable to think that there are some customers of Betfair that are working themselves silly just to see Betfair take 60% premium charge. The only reason they've stayed so long and got their balls chopped off for so long is that up to now there has been no viable alternative. I mean I'm sure it can't be fun for them to have 60% premium charge taken away each week and I'm sure they are desperate to leave. I believe Smarkets will be offering that viable alternative soon and these high volume customers will leave in their droves.
Last edited by luctens on Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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