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Pinnacle Lean

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
raizzak
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:24 pm

I will say only this. No number is sharp until it is
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
Porthugz
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:44 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: Plain and simple question:

Does anyone have any data on betting along with the pinnacle lean on an exchange?  E.g. if Pinny is favouring Team A in a game VS team B (best market odds for team B, indicating they have a preference for team A and want no money on it).

You'd be betting value as you are beating the pinny line but avoid the soft limiting...and would basically be betting along with the Pinny traders.
I think this is a very interesting topic and I will give a live exemple of what you're saying with my personal thoughts:

Tottenham - Manchester United Sunday 10th April 2016

Currently Pinnacle offers best odds on the draw and Manchester United, they are by doing so, indicating that they don't want action on Tottenham

Pinnacle match odds: 1.91 / 3.64 / 4.52 for 1 / X / 2

The idea that Alfa1234 is defending (if I understood him correctly) is to bet on an exchange on Tottenham

Currently, Betfair has Tottenham at 1.99. Now theorically we would indeed be betting allong with the Pinny traders if we could get that price (Actually, even if all the juice was on Tott side, pinny traders would have tottenham true odds at 1.984) but we need to apply betfair's commission to that price. In my example it's 3.8% so my odds would be 1.9523

If you have 2% commission your odds would be 1.97 and you'd still be close but still not close enough.

For this to work, you need to find bigger gaps between the betfair price and the pinnacle lean. I just don't think there is such a thing but that was an interesting idea to bring up anyway
Alfa1234
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:26 am

Porthugz wrote:
Alfa1234 wrote: Plain and simple question:

Does anyone have any data on betting along with the pinnacle lean on an exchange?  E.g. if Pinny is favouring Team A in a game VS team B (best market odds for team B, indicating they have a preference for team A and want no money on it).

You'd be betting value as you are beating the pinny line but avoid the soft limiting...and would basically be betting along with the Pinny traders.
I think this is a very interesting topic and I will give a live exemple of what you're saying with my personal thoughts:

Tottenham - Manchester United Sunday 10th April 2016

Currently Pinnacle offers best odds on the draw and Manchester United, they are by doing so, indicating that they don't want action on Tottenham

Pinnacle match odds: 1.91 / 3.64 / 4.52 for 1 / X / 2

The idea that Alfa1234 is defending (if I understood him correctly) is to bet on an exchange on Tottenham

Currently, Betfair has Tottenham at 1.99. Now theorically we would indeed be betting allong with the Pinny traders if we could get that price (Actually, even if all the juice was on Tott side, pinny traders would have tottenham true odds at 1.984) but we need to apply betfair's commission to that price. In my example it's 3.8% so my odds would be 1.9523

If you have 2% commission your odds would be 1.97 and you'd still be close but still not close enough.

For this to work, you need to find bigger gaps between the betfair price and the pinnacle lean. I just don't think there is such a thing but that was an interesting idea to bring up anyway
Yes correct, however I believe Pinnacle regularly makes more than just their standard 2 to 5% margin because their traders are that good...so if you bet along with their traders on an exchange theoretically you'd be winning the bets they don't want action on.  So that's my question really, if anyone has any experience with this.

I suppose another way to put it is: what is you loss % rate in Pinny?  Mine is currently 7.6% after well over 3200 bets now (although all markets are in there, even some smaller markets so my results are a tad diluted).  If the loss rate of most here is bigger than the standard Pinny juice...we have our answer.
Last edited by Alfa1234 on Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
middler
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:36 am

I believe that if you lose more than the average 2-5% on pinnacle by arbing or value betting, is because of games that have a big change right before the start. In my experience, almost every time (I don't have any accurate statistic about this) I see a big ML/AH move when the game is about to start, the team coming from behind will win, even if the final odds right before the game are 2-2,5. Also a team that was already a favorite and becomes a stronger one, will beat the AH line. I feel the line does not move enough to represent the real probability at that point, and you would always bet for the team coming from behind in the soft book. This happens a lot in basketball.

I also believe you cannot make an accurate analysis of pinnacle by your average loss %.
You have to take into account different sports, and even different leagues. For example, I cannot state if this is coincidence (would be a very long lasting coincidence), and I'm not going to calculate every single %, but I usually lose my money on pinnacle in european leagues, and recover on NBA, MLB, NFL (not NHL). Looks like their line moves are less accurate. My current loss % with them does not reach 2%
Last edited by middler on Thu Apr 07, 2016 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:45 am

I'm almost certain that if line keeps moving, you will see an example of my first point in the basketball game between BC Astana Tigers -vs- Enisey Krasnoyarsk in a few hours. Just check if the difference increases short before the start.

If this is true, it would mean that simply by taking these games and placing the opposite bet as you would normally do on Pinnacle, you would win on the long term.
middler
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Re: Pinnacle Lean

Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:04 pm

The example I gave before did not change its odds in the end, but if you check the historical odds from Brose vs Laboral, and you see the game, you will get my point.

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