Hi everyone,
I've been out of the sphere for a while and I can see that pinnacle's limits have declined in the past couple years. I guess this has something to do with their odds representing the real chance of the outcome.
Do you guys think that the lower the limits, the less reliability they got to represent the real chance of the outcome?
Does anyone have stats or observation if, for example, hockey over/under or handball over/under lines/odds represent the real chance and can be used as a comparison base for value betting?
Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
Regards!
Pinnacle odds reliability
- ex-hft
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Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Yes, absolutely. The higher the limit, the harder the odds are to beat / the more they reflect the true probability.
- ludako
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Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Lets take a handball game. Do you think that if bet365 has higher limits than pinnacle, they got higher chance to represent the true probability?
- ex-hft
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Bet365 can afford higher limits, because they kick winners out. When the max bet in pinnacle is high enough (say at least 500 or 1000), then they are sharper than bet365 for sure.
When they are low - I’m not sure, Both are pretty soft, and others here might have a more informed opinion of who’s the closer to the truth (I don’t value bet myself, only model-based, so I’m not an expert on this).
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
No, not exactly.
Bet365 can afford higher limits, because they kick winners out. When the max bet in pinnacle is high enough (say at least 500 or 1000), then they are sharper than bet365 for sure.
When they are low - I’m not sure, Both are pretty soft, and others here might have a more informed opinion of who’s the closer to the truth (I don’t value bet myself, only model-based, so I’m not an expert on this).
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arbusers
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Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
ex_hft answers well, but let me add a couple more thoughts.
1. Bet365 can afford bigger limits because of the huge cliental basis worldwide, and the fact that more amateurs are betting with Bet365 than Pinnacle.
2. You have to keep in mind there are value traps all around. In my opinion, the smaller the market (and Handball is a small market) the bigger the possibility for a value trap.
We discussed in this forum several times what a value trap is and how to avoid it. You might want to have a look at this thread: value-traps-t8678/ but do use the search button for more opinions on that.
1. Bet365 can afford bigger limits because of the huge cliental basis worldwide, and the fact that more amateurs are betting with Bet365 than Pinnacle.
2. You have to keep in mind there are value traps all around. In my opinion, the smaller the market (and Handball is a small market) the bigger the possibility for a value trap.
We discussed in this forum several times what a value trap is and how to avoid it. You might want to have a look at this thread: value-traps-t8678/ but do use the search button for more opinions on that.
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arbusers
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Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Let me also mention again this article I wrote some years ago, it explains the vicious spiral Pinnacle finds itself in, and partially answers your question: portal/last-man-standing-pinnacle/
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arb12
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@ Ex-hft,
Sometimes Pinny, ISN and Sharp agencies in general do not reflect the true probability at all. What I mean is this - some calculations insist that the true odds for some markets are far from the published range of odds. And the fact that many agencies simply follow them (minus some margins) helps observers capture hypothetical value, provided that the calculations are correct. So later backtesting of those events and further hypothetical repetitions of the Sharps' behavior at some future times can remove errors in the observer's computational model and highlight times when the Sharps probably tend to repeat the same coefficient patterning. Rarely, but sometimes it happens.
The next task for the independent observer is this - is that a short-term pattern of published odds on Sharps' end or not, and how to handle it?
Here have to stress three things:
- First, if the spotted error on the Sharps' side is repeating above a given frequency, this one will disappear in the future.
- Second, you have to estimate the longevity of the spotted cases from a sporting point of view (fundamental analysis).
- And third (connected to the above), the country-specific pattern and its relationship with bookies' wrong odds.
For example, when it comes to Soccer, the Sharps' misjudgments of events are:
- Short-term, as seen in South Korea's K-League 1 and in the AFF Mitsubishi Electric Cup 2022;
- Short-to-medium-term, as seen in the various Argentine divisions;
- Medium-term when it comes to the Hellenic Super League 2 and the Chilean Primera División.
And so on. In every kind of sport, these ones have to be determined and handled respectively.
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
@ Ex-hft,
Sometimes Pinny, ISN and Sharp agencies in general do not reflect the true probability at all. What I mean is this - some calculations insist that the true odds for some markets are far from the published range of odds. And the fact that many agencies simply follow them (minus some margins) helps observers capture hypothetical value, provided that the calculations are correct. So later backtesting of those events and further hypothetical repetitions of the Sharps' behavior at some future times can remove errors in the observer's computational model and highlight times when the Sharps probably tend to repeat the same coefficient patterning. Rarely, but sometimes it happens.
The next task for the independent observer is this - is that a short-term pattern of published odds on Sharps' end or not, and how to handle it?
Here have to stress three things:
- First, if the spotted error on the Sharps' side is repeating above a given frequency, this one will disappear in the future.
- Second, you have to estimate the longevity of the spotted cases from a sporting point of view (fundamental analysis).
- And third (connected to the above), the country-specific pattern and its relationship with bookies' wrong odds.
For example, when it comes to Soccer, the Sharps' misjudgments of events are:
- Short-term, as seen in South Korea's K-League 1 and in the AFF Mitsubishi Electric Cup 2022;
- Short-to-medium-term, as seen in the various Argentine divisions;
- Medium-term when it comes to the Hellenic Super League 2 and the Chilean Primera División.
And so on. In every kind of sport, these ones have to be determined and handled respectively.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Addendum to the post above - the common threat to the observer is to confuse the variance of the probability that something will happen, supported by the published odds, with the errors of the odds (published by the Sharps), which must be confirmed by you in the given time period and supported by you through pure sports analysis.
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arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
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Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
And last but not least – a constant process of backtesting and reducing our computational errors.
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
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I have gone through the same thought process myself. Some errors on the the Sharp's side are easy to notice systematically - for example: if Pinnacle overvalues a given team with their opening odds relative to their closing prices, this error will tend to stick around to next week. Same for over/under in the league, and so forth.
However, for the closing prices (at kick off) to be wrong systematically - that is much harder for me to assess - I know that they are often wrong, as reflected by my fundamental model, and I can bet against them in the less competitive leagues very successfully.
However, to know that they are systematically wrong independently of my own predictions - that I'm not so sure that I can do.
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Thank you for the thoughts.arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:30 pmAddendum to the post above - the common threat to the observer is to confuse the variance of the probability that something will happen, supported by the published odds, with the errors of the odds (published by the Sharps), which must be confirmed by you in the given time period and supported by you through pure sports analysis.
I have gone through the same thought process myself. Some errors on the the Sharp's side are easy to notice systematically - for example: if Pinnacle overvalues a given team with their opening odds relative to their closing prices, this error will tend to stick around to next week. Same for over/under in the league, and so forth.
However, for the closing prices (at kick off) to be wrong systematically - that is much harder for me to assess - I know that they are often wrong, as reflected by my fundamental model, and I can bet against them in the less competitive leagues very successfully.
However, to know that they are systematically wrong independently of my own predictions - that I'm not so sure that I can do.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
And now to answer your case - In my view the Sharps can't afford to tolerate long-term "errors", except if they're some Value traps or something else.
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Each of our calculation errors is a value provided to Sharps free of charge. Therefore, if someone doesn't have experience in a particular league or sport, it's preferable to develop slowly and steadily before market interventions.ex-hft wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:37 pmThank you for the thoughts.arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:30 pmAddendum to the post above - the common threat to the observer is to confuse the variance of the probability that something will happen, supported by the published odds, with the errors of the odds (published by the Sharps), which must be confirmed by you in the given time period and supported by you through pure sports analysis.
I have gone through the same thought process myself. Some errors on the the Sharp's side are easy to notice systematically - for example: if Pinnacle overvalues a given team with their opening odds relative to their closing prices, this error will tend to stick around to next week. Same for over/under in the league, and so forth.
However, for the closing prices (at kick off) to be wrong systematically - that is much harder for me to assess - I know that they are often wrong, as reflected by my fundamental model, and I can bet against them in the less competitive leagues very successfully.
However, to know that they are systematically wrong independently of my own predictions - that I'm not so sure that I can do.
And now to answer your case - In my view the Sharps can't afford to tolerate long-term "errors", except if they're some Value traps or something else.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Heavy backtesting and timed injection of an appropriate correction multiplier if you're sure about it. Strong development of the new results on your part, plus adequate filtering and later market attack for real, initially with low amounts.
Congratulations on your thought patterns!
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
ex-hft wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:37 pmThank you for the thoughts.arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:30 pmAddendum to the post above - the common threat to the observer is to confuse the variance of the probability that something will happen, supported by the published odds, with the errors of the odds (published by the Sharps), which must be confirmed by you in the given time period and supported by you through pure sports analysis.
I have gone through the same thought process myself. Some errors on the the Sharp's side are easy to notice systematically - for example: if Pinnacle overvalues a given team with their opening odds relative to their closing prices, this error will tend to stick around to next week. Same for over/under in the league, and so forth.
However, for the closing prices (at kick off) to be wrong systematically - that is much harder for me to assess - I know that they are often wrong, as reflected by my fundamental model, and I can bet against them in the less competitive leagues very successfully.
However, to know that they are systematically wrong independently of my own predictions - that I'm not so sure that I can do.
Heavy backtesting and timed injection of an appropriate correction multiplier if you're sure about it. Strong development of the new results on your part, plus adequate filtering and later market attack for real, initially with low amounts.
Congratulations on your thought patterns!
- niel
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: Pinnacle odds reliability
Do you recommend any system for backtesting and also to analyse data? Or you just code everything yourself in something like phython?arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:10 pm
@ Ex-hft,
Sometimes Pinny, ISN and Sharp agencies in general do not reflect the true probability at all. What I mean is this - some calculations insist that the true odds for some markets are far from the published range of odds. And the fact that many agencies simply follow them (minus some margins) helps observers capture hypothetical value, provided that the calculations are correct. So later backtesting of those events and further hypothetical repetitions of the Sharps' behavior at some future times can remove errors in the observer's computational model and highlight times when the Sharps probably tend to repeat the same coefficient patterning. Rarely, but sometimes it happens.
The next task for the independent observer is this - is that a short-term pattern of published odds on Sharps' end or not, and how to handle it?
Here have to stress three things:
- First, if the spotted error on the Sharps' side is repeating above a given frequency, this one will disappear in the future.
- Second, you have to estimate the longevity of the spotted cases from a sporting point of view (fundamental analysis).
- And third (connected to the above), the country-specific pattern and its relationship with bookies' wrong odds.
For example, when it comes to Soccer, the Sharps' misjudgments of events are:
- Short-term, as seen in South Korea's K-League 1 and in the AFF Mitsubishi Electric Cup 2022;
- Short-to-medium-term, as seen in the various Argentine divisions;
- Medium-term when it comes to the Hellenic Super League 2 and the Chilean Primera División.
And so on. In every kind of sport, these ones have to be determined and handled respectively.
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