Arbusers

I seriously started to think about switching completely to value betting. We're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at pinnacle.

Guys, what you think about stakes?

I don't think it would be fair to risk same amount on a %2 Value bet and a %5 Monster Value bet.

I'm thinking about something like this,

%2.00-%2.99 Value.............Stake %1
%3.00-%3.99 Value.............Stake %1.5
%4.00-%4.99 Value..............Stake %2
%5.00+          Value..............Stake %2.5

Some pros/cons I can think of,

Pros

Lesser liability. You're risking 1200€ on softbook (1,90) and 1013€ on Pinnacle (2,25) for a %3 surebet, a total of 2213€ risk for 66€ Profit? Now, maybe you would risk only 300€ or 400€.

You won't deposit money to Pinnacle, IBC and Sbobet anymore. Assuming you're using e-wallets lik Skrill or Neteller, do you know what it means? No more fees!

Even if you don't bet loose lines/palp errors, still time to time you may have your bets voided. It happens. There's too many d*ckhead bookies around. Let's say you risked 1000€ on Dallas at Pinnacle and 900€ on Spurs at softbook. Dallas wins. If softbook cancels your bet, you lose 1000€. If you were making value bets, you would place a bet only at softbook. In this case, you lose nothing. You just miss a win.

Cons

You will be vulnerable to losing streaks. Even when you're blessed (and boosted) by Laws of Math and Legendary Pinnacle Lean, still you will experience losing streaks. Money management is key but you're an experienced punter, don't you?

Unlike arbitrage betting, you're not invincible anymore. You will lose some bets. So a stress factor may come into play but it can be neutralized easily by good money management and patience. And let me ask you, you don't feel stress when you lose your bets at Pinnacle?

Feel free to add your own Pros/Cons too!

How can you define a 2-2.99 value?

Arbusers wrote: How can you define a 2-2.99 value?

By value, I mean the % of the arbitrage. For example, 1,90-2,23 makes  %2.59.

1,50 - 3,42 surebet is %4.27.

OK, got it now.

Arbitrator wrote:
What do i get wrong here? I read about 6-8-12% yield with so and so many bets, does it mean let's take the 12.07% example, after placing 1180 bets, you turn 10000€ into 11207€? Please enlighten me.

no. on every 10 000 staked you get back 11207 eur its like you bet on odd 1.1207 with 10 000 stake and you win

1180 bets over what period of time?

Also how does this approach compare to the "Sharpbets" thing that SBM was developing?

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:

Some pros/cons I can think of,

Pros

Lesser liability. You're risking 1200€ on softbook (1,90) and 1013€ on Pinnacle (2,25) for a %3 surebet, a total of 2213€ risk for 66€ Profit? Now, maybe you would risk only 300€ or 400€.

You won't deposit money to Pinnacle, IBC and Sbobet anymore. Assuming you're using e-wallets lik Skrill or Neteller, do you know what it means? No more fees!

Even if you don't bet loose lines/palp errors, still time to time you may have your bets voided. It happens. There's too many d*ckhead bookies around. Let's say you risked 1000€ on Dallas at Pinnacle and 900€ on Spurs at softbook. Dallas wins. If softbook cancels your bet, you lose 1000€. If you were making value bets, you would place a bet only at softbook. In this case, you lose nothing. You just miss a win.

Cons

You will be vulnerable to losing streaks. Even when you're blessed (and boosted) by Laws of Math and Legendary Pinnacle Lean, still you will experience losing streaks. Money management is key but you're an experienced punter, don't you?

Unlike arbitrage betting, you're not invincible anymore. You will lose some bets. So a stress factor may come into play but it can be neutralized easily by good money management and patience. And let me ask you, you don't feel stress when you lose your bets at Pinnacle?

Feel free to add your own Pros/Cons too!

The most important thing when starting with betting (value and / or just following tipsters) is having a very high bankroll, compared to your avg. bet. When I started full time betting, about 2 years ago, I lost my patience a lot, broke some things like mobile phone / laptop  But after a period of time, when you, eventually, start winning, you realize that no matter how bad your losing streaks are, or how much bad luck you have had on some bets, it will always turn out right.

Last month I decided to switch from livebetting, which I did on the side, to make the most of my time sitting behind the pc placing (value)bets, to trading. Imo trading on the one hand and betting on the other is the perfect combination. Some steady income and some longterm profits, this way you decrease losing streaks and make life a little less stressful.

Very nice results MX, wise to choose valuebetting!

I have got the following stats since oct. '12 on dropping odds / valuebets;

no. on every 10 000 staked you get back 11207 eur its like you bet on odd 1.1207 with 10 000 stake and you win

Ahhh in this light it makes more sense, delicate question is now turnover in which time frame, which our comrade Lansky pointed out already.

Interesting but if I think about losing 2-3K€ which is statistically possible and will happen sooner or later, that's few weeks or month's of work gone in a short time, I get nervous.
More risk usually means more profit, so it's not a surprise that it's more profitable than arbing, but what beats arbing honestly?
You prefer to make 2K€ every month for sure, or rather +5K-3K+1K-1K+4K+6K, I know what I prefer.

A little detail which was mentioned on side notes, actually is very important, there's an old wise saying from stock traders, if you lose 10% of your bankroll, ok so be it, 10K => 9K, you only need 11.11% profit to recover and you are at 10K again, therefore long positions traders like to stop loss at 10% usually.
But if you lose 50% of your bankroll, 10K => 5K, you need 100% profit to be at your 10K again.

Maybe it's something for arbers who have a few K's risk capital which they are prepared to lose with a smile, as an experiment, but if you worked for the money in a coal mine, I would not suggest value betting imho.

I made test on Marathon last month and analyze results of sharpbets.

Alabaster wrote: I made test on Marathon last month and analyze results of sharpbets

So an even stake of 1 for each bet. Was the number 35.3 at the top of the chart your total from nearly 400 + and - ? If so that's about 9% yield.

What was the time period of this turnover? Now I wonder what the results would look like if the stake was increased to say 5 or 10.

I pushed SBM for some good data like this last winter though nothing ever came of it other than that stuff they had showing the crunched results of 10,000 (some crazy high number)  Marathon bets... not to mention the insistence of using some Kelly criterion algorithm.

When you start changing the stake size with every bet things get confusing really fast. Which is why I'm fine with forfeiting some 'potential' yield when using flat stakes with each value bet. (Also saves time if you're American and get audited by the IRS)

Also that 10,000 marathon bets crap just isn't reasonable in real life unless it's completely automated and even then numbers like that likely to draw undue scrutiny the same way that unusually high or odd amount stakes do. How arbs do you place in a day or a week? 60 or 70 on a Saturday got to be getting near the upper limit. With value betting it will be higher than that even...
I like the idea of using arbitrage software to identify value bets especially because now you can go through and grab all those oppurtunities showing up as marginal arbs that you never would have bothered with if you had to cover both sides.

The results of paper trading 1000 $10 stakes or 1000 $20 stakes over the course of two weeks if done manually or one week if automated are what I would be most interested in seeing.

Those seem like good hard round numbers. The biggest gripe I always had about all these arb finding services is that none of them records of past outcomes in a searchable database for back-testing purposes. Imagine a Forex or Commodities operation telling you they've got nothing, nada, zilch

Nice example of valuebetting (dropping odds); http://iwetten.blogabet.com/