Cut and pasted from an old article I had saved on the magic of 55% winners in Value Betting:
What the Pros Expect
The best professional bettors would be delighted with a winning percentage between 56 and 58 percent. Yes, really. They're wise enough to know that will produce a healthy profit over the long run.
A professional better hitting 57 percent of their games is really no different than you hitting 55 percent of yours due to one simple reason. The professional bettor shops for the best line available on a consistent basis and their willingness to do so adds several percentage points in their favor during the course of a year.
If you and a professional bettor both bet the same team and you push your bet, chances are the professional bettor will have won theirs just by shopping for a better number.
Simply put, most professional bettors are average handicappers, but active shoppers, which makes a huge difference in a bettor's bottom line.
On top of that, the professional bettor will practice solid money management techniques, which also adds to the bottom line, while the recreational bettor is more apt to make money management blunders, which will cost them money over the long haul.
Based on the old standard 11/10 odds:
52.38 = break even
55 = 5% gain
56 = 6.91% gain Pro level
57 = 8.82% gain
58 = 10.72% gain Above 58% you start to really push up against the problem of variance
59 = 12.63% gain
60 = 14.54% gain Tipsters love to talk about 60%, but due to variance it just isn't attainable long term
If you can make 55% week in week out month after month you're doing something right.
Pinnacle results
- Lansky
- Has experience
- Karma: 25
- Mi_t_is
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
- HL333982
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
This idea has been bugging me for a long time and 3-4 times I have given in to the temptetion to only bet on the soft books with no sharp coverage. Last time I used the strategy for about 3-4 months and I can tell you one thing: the variance is absolutely massive. Every time I tried it all ended the same way. At first I won alot, more than what is logical. You gain self-confidence in the strategy and everything is great. Then, like a letter in the mail, variance hits you like a truck. I've gone from being up €20-30k to 0 in matter of a few days. Even though you know you win long-term the pressure of loosing that much money (and also the profit you would have made from arbing during the same period) just makes it not worth it in my opinion.
It's easy to look through your asian bookie results and think about how much more you would have made if you didnt bet with the asians. If you are totally cold-blooded with no care for money at all and also heavily over-bankrolled, this might be a strategy for you.
It's easy to look through your asian bookie results and think about how much more you would have made if you didnt bet with the asians. If you are totally cold-blooded with no care for money at all and also heavily over-bankrolled, this might be a strategy for you.
- Mi_t_is
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
What was your stake per bet and your bankroll?
I absolutly think that if you bet 1% of your bank per valuebet, you cannot loose.
I absolutly think that if you bet 1% of your bank per valuebet, you cannot loose.
- HL333982
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
I bet maxbet on almost everything, just like I do when arbing. Average stake about €500 with €150,000 bankroll.
If you are that sure why dont you try it? Problem is that if you have lower stakes doing this unmatched betting than you would if arbing, you ll end up losing money in comparison anyway.
If you are that sure why dont you try it? Problem is that if you have lower stakes doing this unmatched betting than you would if arbing, you ll end up losing money in comparison anyway.
- Mi_t_is
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
I will try it. But not maximum stake, but the same stake if it is possible. Iam trying it right now. Ill post results after 1k bets
- cortomaltese
- Pro
- Karma: 33
Post
Thing is that is not easy to predict movement and wait until minutes before KO to cover the bets is not always a succesful strategy .
Many times odds are going opposite than expected close to KO , and there can be many reasons for that , one possible explanation could be that a lot of people are thinking as we are and they are covering their bets at this time , or even the softs who took a lot of bets in one side can cover the other side at pinnacle or exchanges , so they are moving the market opposite than expected!
Re: Pinnacle results
Agree 100% that closing odds are essential!milord wrote: hi to everyone!! especially to Arbusers and Lansky that i always read with interest and pleasure
like all of you im an arber as well as a gambler
about this strategy, there are a lot of components to consider imho, for example me in arbing im one of the few to be in loss with a soft book not with all so you understand that a strategy like value betting would destroy me
in particular my account of pinna and sbo are in active, pinna also applied limits to my account but as i told you im also a gambler, especially i take early lines to have advantage of odds
i think you cant apply a value betting strategy without any knowledge of what you are gambling, especially about little arbs
for sure the value betting strategy is better than arbing about fixed matches, wehn you see that the odds doesnt have any sense but i saw a lot of fixed matches to not finish like they were planned, anyway doing arb with a fixed is wrong
by the way there is an aspect that no one talked about but that is essential that is the closing price
i just give you an example, in the last round of europa league i saw movements in favour of thun, so i took them in softbook at 2,2 when the opposite was at 1,83/1,85
i waited to do my arb until when the price reached 1,97/1,99 and then i covered and did my arb, by the way the closing price of thun was 2,27 on pinna so you understand that a value betting strategy was not productive even if thun won the match
the closing prices are essentail, you can find arbs 2 days before, 1 hour before and so on but for me this is the most difficult aspect of arbing, when to cover your soft book price? from my experience i think is better to wait few minutes before the ko but is not always like this
this aspect ofd closing price in value betting strategy is the most important thing
Thing is that is not easy to predict movement and wait until minutes before KO to cover the bets is not always a succesful strategy .
Many times odds are going opposite than expected close to KO , and there can be many reasons for that , one possible explanation could be that a lot of people are thinking as we are and they are covering their bets at this time , or even the softs who took a lot of bets in one side can cover the other side at pinnacle or exchanges , so they are moving the market opposite than expected!
- Mi_t_is
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
and what do u think on valuebets surebet.com/users/sign_up?affiliate_code=arbusers&zone=arbusers" target="_blank" class="postlink autolinks">surebet.com . WHen number of odds to compare is 30.. and you choose only softbooks, when i look at that valuebet on oddsportal.com.. other softs have odd about 1,3 and valuebet is about 1,4 for example. Is it good way to valubet with this service?
Or do you know any good valuebetting service?
I dont means surebet service and bet other side, because there you wont find such a lot of valuebets because you need also pinnacle side which you dont need.
Or do you know any good valuebetting service?
I dont means surebet service and bet other side, because there you wont find such a lot of valuebets because you need also pinnacle side which you dont need.
- HL333982
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
Another input to this is how you value your time. When arbing I just place my bets and then when there is no arbs I'll go do something else. Later I'll comeback and settle my bets in my sheet. What I found out when trying this unmatched betting was that besides the stress I also spent more time infront of the computer. It's hard to leave and go do something else with €5000 on the line spread out on a couple of games. So when calculating your overall profit you should bare in mind that you might spend more time (alot more than you do now) in front of the computer which also mean your hourly earnings drop a bit.
- Lansky
- Has experience
- Karma: 25
Post
On August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, black came up a record twenty-six times in succession [in roulette]. … [There] was a near-panicky rush to bet on red, beginning about the time black had come up a phenomenal fifteen times. In application of the maturity [of the chances] doctrine, players doubled and tripled their stakes, this doctrine leading them to believe after black came up the twentieth time that there was not a chance in a million of another repeat. In the end the unusual run enriched the Casino by some millions of francs. What are the odds? Hell it's possible, just not probable. With variance you have to be ready for anything... even the improbable.
Re: Pinnacle results
Like HL33982 said: "the variance is absolutely massive." Even 1% is too high given the amount of variance possible. 0.25 % would give you 400 bets, 0.20 % 500 bets, 0.10 % 1000 bets The right amount to ride out those swings in variance has got to be somewhere in the hundreds.Mi_t_is wrote: What was your stake per bet and your bankroll?
I absolutly think that if you bet 1% of your bank per valuebet, you cannot loose.
On August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, black came up a record twenty-six times in succession [in roulette]. … [There] was a near-panicky rush to bet on red, beginning about the time black had come up a phenomenal fifteen times. In application of the maturity [of the chances] doctrine, players doubled and tripled their stakes, this doctrine leading them to believe after black came up the twentieth time that there was not a chance in a million of another repeat. In the end the unusual run enriched the Casino by some millions of francs. What are the odds? Hell it's possible, just not probable. With variance you have to be ready for anything... even the improbable.
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
- Mi_t_is
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
I was simulating bets with 50% of chance. In a row it is possible to get 22 kos.. thats maximum after 1bilion of matches. And never happed 22ko, 1ok, 20ko, 1ok, 20ko. This can beat your money managment.. as i said i wrote software to calculate it and it is not possible to lose with about 0,5% of bank per stake..
Lansky i dont know about real situation when it happend
I was simulating it for myself.. yes i know that simulating and real life can be different but i think that simulation is 99,9% correct.
So result is that you can get ko serie but you also get ok serie
If somebody is interested. With 50% winning rate is probability to get 20loses in a row 0,0000095367%
Lansky i dont know about real situation when it happend
I was simulating it for myself.. yes i know that simulating and real life can be different but i think that simulation is 99,9% correct.
So result is that you can get ko serie but you also get ok serie
If somebody is interested. With 50% winning rate is probability to get 20loses in a row 0,0000095367%
Last edited by Mi_t_is on Thu Sep 26, 2013 5:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
- anormal1992
- Has experience
- Karma: -9
Post
Re: Pinnacle results
So what if that happends ? What if your 19-th bets loses how much are you going to bet on 20-th match ? Millions of euros ?You end your life in debts?....You cant bet your future on low odds...Someone, somewhere will have a bad luck for sure....Mi_t_is wrote: If somebody is interested. With 50% winning rate is probability to get 20loses in a row 0,0000095367%
-
