Pinnacle results

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
Yngwie
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Re: Pinnacle results

Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:37 am

Lansky wrote:
Mi_t_is wrote: What was your stake per bet and your bankroll?

I absolutly think that if you bet 1% of your bank per valuebet, you cannot loose.
If you bet %1 each value bet, you wont lose your bankroll even after most unfortunate losing streaks. I dont understand what youre trying to calculate with %50 prob thing. We are not flipping coin here. We are talking about a sharp angle.

Monte carle example has no relation with this subject. Black or red may come up 26 times but its possibility is not same when you're betting value bets. Dont compare apples with melons.
Last edited by Yngwie on Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:19 am

anormal1992 wrote:
Mi_t_is wrote: If somebody is interested. With 50% winning rate is probability to get 20loses in a row 0,0000095367%
So what if that happends ? What if your 19-th bets loses how much are you going to bet on 20-th match ? Millions of euros ?You end your life in debts?....You cant bet  your future on low odds...Someone, somewhere will have a bad luck for sure....
i dont say that i will be raising my stake.. I will stake every bet with 1% of bankrool, so i have bankroll for 100bets and it is not possible to get 100Ko in a row with betting on valuebets with normal odds. Never NEVER

Yngwie/Sawyer  - i wrote it because when you have odd about 2.00 it is 50% of winning. So it is quite simmilar. i would say that average surebet odds are about 2.00 thats the reason why i told it.. I want to tell everybody that i was testing it and it is unreal to loose with 1% of bank per bet.
Last edited by Mi_t_is on Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:32 pm

Mi_t_is wrote: I was simulating bets with 50% of chance. In a row it is possible to get 22 kos.. thats maximum after 1bilion of matches. And never happed 22ko, 1ok, 20ko, 1ok, 20ko. This can beat your money managment.. as i said i wrote software to calculate it and it is not possible to lose with about 0,5% of bank per stake..
With your simulations using 0,50% stake over what period of time was the money turned over? One week as is standard in arbitrage or longer/shorter? Very interesting stuff.
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Thu Sep 26, 2013 5:05 pm

milord wrote: however the problem is that the biggest part of bookie doesnt care if ur in loss, i got a lot of accoutn freezed even if i were in negative with them, to be sincere this is very stupid,
Yes, a new extreme of stupid just when you think you've seen everything. When you have Wall Street High-Frequency trading firms like Cantor Fitzgerald making moves like buying up 40% of the Nevada sportsbooks along with hiring analysts, statisticians, and software engineers to build their own sports betting solutions many of the current field of crappy bookmakers are going to be up shit creek without a paddle sometime in the distant future. These firms that trade in milli- and microseconds have seen the billions Pinnacle has made competing with these bozos and now they want a cut of the pie during the next economic boom when people are spending money like there's no tomorrow. So as long as the economy sucks and the average square bettor has barely got two nickels to rub together this present breed of books we've got now have still got their foot in the door, but when things heat up again... they better watch out as they may be proven to be no better than a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
Mi_t_is
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Re: Pinnacle results

Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:40 pm

Lansky - i can bet daily 10-50 values. If iam betting 0.5& per stake i need to bet 200values. So you can do it per week easily. But in values i have now 12% yield because iam testing only high valued bets.

Problem is that there are not many valuebets withh some bookies and a lot are in marathon where everybody got limited soon.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:05 pm

Mi_t_is wrote: But in values I have now 12% yield because I am testing only high valued bets.

Problem is that there are not many valuebets withh some bookies and a lot are in marathon where everybody got limited soon.
How painful is the drop in yield if lower quality valuebets from sources other than marathon are included?

I had some info a while back that marathon had been either acquired by a criminal syndicate as a front to launder money or had been controlled by one all along and it had just given up it's rouse of acting like a fully legit book to step up it's real activities. So hard to tell who the beneficial owners are of any of these books without a forensic accountant to pierce through all the offshore shell holding companies.
In Arbitrage, Percentages are Vanity and Turnover is Sanity.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:41 am

cortomaltese wrote: Agree 100% that closing odds are essential!
Thing is that is not easy to predict movement  and wait until minutes before KO to cover the bets is not always a succesful strategy .
Many times odds are going  opposite than expected close to KO , and there can be many reasons for that , one possible explanation could be that a lot of people are thinking as we are  and they are covering their bets at this time , or even the softs who took a lot of bets in one side can cover the other side at pinnacle or exchanges , so they are moving the market opposite than expected!
wow, soft books really do that?

(Sorry for the late reply.)
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Re: Pinnacle results

Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:58 am

All the time.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:48 pm

pescu23 wrote:
Yngwie wrote: Numbers don't lie..Who knows, maybe we're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at Pinnacle? :D
Thanks Yngwie!! that is a nice answer. I have BetonValue, they give me a list of valuebets, Im going to place 100 hundred bets with microstakes and I will share the results :)

hmm i didnt know others noticed this, since i started betting with pinnacle i notice that i lose more there, i hardly withdrawal because there is noting to withdrawal just deposit so i tout if i just be against pinnalce odds it will work.

first i monitored them with just writing it down and checking, for over a week i did, and the result was that 75 percent own, that gave me a little confidence to slipt 100 pounds into 20 bets and try, believe me the first day i lost 50 percent and gained 50 percent but the gain was not enough to cover the lose.

i decided to select then, jsut like they are waiting for me, after the second day and lossing another 20 pounds i disappeared.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:03 am

jagas wrote:
pescu23 wrote:
Yngwie wrote: Numbers don't lie..Who knows, maybe we're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at Pinnacle? :D
Thanks Yngwie!! that is a nice answer. I have BetonValue, they give me a list of valuebets, Im going to place 100 hundred bets with microstakes and I will share the results :)
hmm i didnt know others noticed this, since i started betting with pinnacle i notice that i lose more there, i hardly withdrawal because there is noting to withdrawal just deposit so i tout if i just be against pinnalce odds it will work.

first i monitored them with just writing it down and checking, for over a week i did, and the result was that 75 percent own, that gave me a little confidence to slipt 100 pounds into 20 bets and try, believe me the first day i lost 50 percent and gained 50 percent but the gain was not enough to cover the lose.

i decided to select then, jsut like they are waiting for me, after the second day and lossing another 20 pounds i disappeared.
Pinnacle should give us generous promotions, rebate bonuses etc. We, arbers are making them rich!

I just read an interview with Pinnacle Oddsmakers at SBR. Man, these guys are so self-confident!
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:14 am

Here's a trick I'm using..

I make parlay surebets, usually 2-teamers. Once I spotted a surebet scheduled today, I parlay it with a stupid favourite scheduled tomorrow. Make sure it sucks and arb value is not negative. Betting big favourites is an excellent way to lose. Pro Players don't bet on gay odds like 1,20-1,30. The more juice you lay, the more you suck. Square players are in love with stupid odds like 1,20-1,30. So if you parlay your arbs with "loser" favourites like these, you may have a good chance to lose at softbook.

For example,

We picked Phoenix +5½ @ 1,92 at softbook for 1000€ and Spurs +5½ @ 2,22 at Pinnacle Sports for 864€.
We parlay Phoenix +5½ with Houston Texans priced 1,35 at softbook. Other side is 3,97 at Pinnacle. We don't cover this bet before Phoenix-Spurs game result is declared.

If, Spurs win by 6, then no problem. You lose of softbook and won at Pinnacle!

If Phoenix covers, then you got 1920€ action on Houston Texans. Then you cover the arb by picking St. Louis Rams 3,97 at Pinnacle.

Rams won last night, pulling off an upset as 4,42 underdog! St. Louis ws priced 3,97 day before, odds increasd to 4,42 next day!
The big favourites goes down. All betting public in shock! Is it someting new? Hell, No! It happens every week. One week it's Manchester United, next week it's Juventus, lol.

Good luck!
Last edited by Yngwie on Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:25 am

Clever guy.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:24 pm

I find the system good in the sense that it might disguise you from the bookies and delay limitation, but as to win at pinny and lose at softbook it won't work, you will not win as often but when you do, you will win more.
On the initial arb you had 3%, on the second you have 0.75%. When Phoenix wins first match the whole value drops to 0.75%, so you have more money invested, on a longer period of time with a smaller ROI + variation caused by the changing price on the second game (price will go either way).
An interesting system regardless.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:19 pm

milord wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Here's a trick I'm using..

I make parlay surebets, usually 2-teamers. Once I spotted a surebet scheduled today, I parlay it with a stupid favourite scheduled tomorrow. Make sure it sucks and arb value is not negative. Betting big favourites is an excellent way to lose. Pro Players don't bet on gay odds like 1,20-1,30. The more juice you lay, the more you suck. Square players are in love with stupid odds like 1,20-1,30. So if you parlay your arbs with "loser" favourites like these, you may have a good chance to lose at softbook.

For example,

We picked Phoenix +5½ @ 1,92 at softbook for 1000€ and Spurs +5½ @ 2,22 at Pinnacle Sports for 864€.
We parlay Phoenix +5½ with Houston Texans priced 1,35 at softbook. Other side is 3,97 at Pinnacle. We don't cover this bet before Phoenix-Spurs game result is declared.

If, Spurs win by 6, then no problem. You lose of softbook and won at Pinnacle!

If Phoenix covers, then you got 1920€ action on Houston Texans. Then you cover the arb by picking St. Louis Rams 3,97 at Pinnacle.

Rams won last night, pulling off an upset as 4,42 underdog! St. Louis ws priced 3,97 day before, odds increasd to 4,42 next day!
The big favourites goes down. All betting public in shock! Is it someting new? Hell, No! It happens every week. One week it's Manchester United, next week it's Juventus, lol.

Good luck!
imho saying odds of favourties always go down is too much simplistic and not true
i dont know how many chances there are to pick two surebets at the same time, cause also the 1,35 you added to phoenix was in sure with pinna in that moment
i think in the long run you tend to win parlay in softbooks rather than in pinna, its mathematic, the chances to win with 2 sure bets increase
Are you living in Wonderland? Of course, favourites' odds won't go down always. This is why I said make sure you don't pick a negative arb. Let's say you picked Houston at 1,35 and odds drifted to 1,38. If you made a positive arb, then probably your %1.2 arb will drop to %0.4. Not big deal. But if you make a %0.50 arb, then even a small line movement will make you horse-f*cked :D

This strategy will work only if you're a smart handicapper. You must be able to guess/know which favourites can go down. If you're a coin flipper or don't have any idea about sports betting, then it won't give you an edge over long haul probably.

But remember, you can always lay loser people's selections! Square minds think alike! If Average Joe likes Juventus to win then you can be sure that your neighbor Square John likes Juventus too. Square minds think alike. Joe learns everybody is on Juve and he tells his friends about it. His friends jump on boat too. Everyone is betting Juve after all!

But Galatasaray aka Lion Kings pull off an upset, grabbing a draw 2-2 at Italy. It happens. When selecting your 2nd leg parlay ticket, you could pick Real Madrid or Juventus. Your selection decides if you will win or not at softbook.

If you had did your homework, you would know Galatasaray changed their coach recently and new Manager Mancini performed a training in Juve Stadium before game.
Last edited by Yngwie on Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Oct 15, 2013 12:39 pm

Thats the problem, you're not a smart capper  ;D

Difficulty is a subjective thing. It may be difficult for you, not really difficult for me. And when I look my profits, I see my strategy/mentality is right.

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