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Polymarket

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arbusers
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Polymarket

Sat May 18, 2024 4:10 am

I would like to bring at your attention this new exchange that comes like a storm these last days.

Billionaire and serial entrepreneur Peter Thiel, alongside Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, raised some $70m for a crypto startup called Polymarket. Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. It is a decentralised prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events. Users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrency to bet on the likelihood of future events taking place. No matter how they call it, it feels like an exchange, and so far only big events are offered for betting.

The US elections are a spearhead market, with gamblers already staking more than $125m. Donald Trump appears to be the favourite with 50% chances, over Joe Biden with 42%. Other important markets is NBA bets and bets on various cryptocurrencies, and meme coins. The platform allows clients to bet at events that can go far away a bookmaker's imagination, for example ''Drake to be arrested before Friday''. Some of the markets might be easy to be manipulated. For example, as we speak, there is a bet called ''DeepFuckingValue posts on Reddit by Friday''. This has already a volume of some $4K, but Keith Patrick Gill knows exactly when his next post will be. Is this fair?

It is not clear to me yet, if clients bet against each other, or liquidity is injected in the events by the exchange. In addition, it seems that Polymarket operates as an offshore exchange because no license is reported yet.
Here in the forum we have discussed several times the need for a decentralised exchange that would free bettors from the burdens of traditional bookmakers and exchanges. Let's see how it goes.
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Re: Polymarket

Sat May 18, 2024 6:09 am

They can misuse funds as well if it's not regulated though I bet for decentralised platform but it needs supervison
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Re: Polymarket

Mon May 20, 2024 2:31 am

arbusers wrote:
Sat May 18, 2024 4:10 am
I would like to bring at your attention this new exchange that comes like a storm these last days.

Billionaire and serial entrepreneur Peter Thiel, alongside Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, raised some $70m for a crypto startup called Polymarket. Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. It is a decentralised prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events. Users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrency to bet on the likelihood of future events taking place. No matter how they call it, it feels like an exchange, and so far only big events are offered for betting.

The US elections are a spearhead market, with gamblers already staking more than $125m. Donald Trump appears to be the favourite with 50% chances, over Joe Biden with 42%. Other important markets is NBA bets and bets on various cryptocurrencies, and meme coins. The platform allows clients to bet at events that can go far away a bookmaker's imagination, for example ''Drake to be arrested before Friday''. Some of the markets might be easy to be manipulated. For example, as we speak, there is a bet called ''DeepFuckingValue posts on Reddit by Friday''. This has already a volume of some $4K, but Keith Patrick Gill knows exactly when his next post will be. Is this fair?

It is not clear to me yet, if clients bet against each other, or liquidity is injected in the events by the exchange. In addition, it seems that Polymarket operates as an offshore exchange because no license is reported yet.
Here in the forum we have discussed several times the need for a decentralised exchange that would free bettors from the burdens of traditional bookmakers and exchanges. Let's see how it goes.
Hi i have been betting op polymarket for over a year now. I'm kind of glad you bring it up, since it's my favorite place to trade. But currently it's more for markets like politics, economics, pop culture, etc. They don't have that many sports markets and betfair is way ahead of them on that.

"It is not clear to me yet, if clients bet against each other, or liquidity is injected in the events by the exchange."

It's 100% people trading against each other.
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arbusers
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Re: Polymarket

Mon May 20, 2024 8:33 am

The following is clearly bot action that goes on 24/7 for some days now. It places 1 bet in less than 1 second. It seems to me they inject liquidity in their product.

Polymarket.png
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Re: Polymarket

Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:10 am

Strange things happen in polymarket, just to let you know to be cautious. Sometimes markets will not be settled according to the real result of an event but by a voting process which is dominated by some "whales" who have financial interest in the outcome, no matter what the true result is. It happened to me, only a small loss as I closed most of my positions shortly before this voting process.

Liquidity in sport markets is quite low. If one likes to browse through these markets, you will probably be able to identify arbs or at least value bets (no commission paid on the platform).

Huge arbs possible in US politics markets (US election results) vs betfair, but you need to take into consideration that the result of polymarket might be something completely different to reality (and betfair). Eventually the platform might be closed and all funds would probably be lost or at least stuck for long.

Look at the discussion on trustpilot:

trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com
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arbusers
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Re: Polymarket

Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:41 pm

I must say that Polymarket is spreading like a fire. It offers some unique novelty bets that can't be found anywhere else. It takes advantage of various narratives and stories that circulate in social media, and when they see a growing trend the come with a betting event. This is very clever. On the other hand, it seems to me that a large part of the volumes is bot generated (A.I maybe).

Regulatory authorities around the globe are still sleeping and I am wondering when they start chasing it. Polymarket is banned in the US and recently in Thailand, but I expect big countries to start taking measures against it as they identify dangers for gambling monopolies, plus another type of danger... Polymarket's odds will expose all the narratives of the media.

See the Polymarket restricted countries here.

Again, another great investment from Thiel.
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Re: Polymarket

Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:10 pm

People will just use a vpn and usdc.
Polymarket is maybe the most exiting thing in betting in a long time.
You can find a lot of value there since there are always unexpected markets with huge differences in opinions.
Predictive Power is maybe one of the most underrated measure of intelligence.
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Re: Polymarket

Sat Jan 18, 2025 8:45 am

Polymarket was my main tool for the US elections. Now I keep finding opportunities.
I am surprised those idiots in the EU did not take any measures yet. Still no VPN needed from my country.
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Re: Polymarket

Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:23 pm

Belgium is now the first EU country to block access to Polymarket, as the gambling authority of the country has determined the exchange to be non-compliant with the Gambling Act of Belgium. It remains to be seen if Polymarket continues taking clients from Belgium or not.

See the list of countries not accepted by Polymarket.

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