Arbusers

So, i always read these discussions that betfair and pinnacle are always right and softbookies suck. (something like that) But i wonder if it's not more nuanced then that.

First let's look at what's the difference between them? Soft bookies take a bigger vig, so they have more margin of error. Exchanges or asian bookies have more incentive to be right or they lose money. Soft bookies probably depend more on their internal statistics and information then on the wisdom of the crowd like the exchange or asian model. And they update their prices slower. So if some news comes out, soft bookies will be slower in general.

So that means exchanges or asian bookies will be sharper when new information comes out.

Are they also sharper in general?
I feel like the predictive ability of exchanges would highly depend on the volume that's being traded? Since they depend on the wisdom of the crowd instead of some "sports betting data providers" that bookies might use. That also means they need lot's of people trading for it to reflect the accurate price. It's like a 2 edged sword? Highly liquid markets will be more accurate then bookies but i feel like it could work the other way around 2?

The reason i'm asking this is i want to compare betfair odds with the average vig removed probability of many bookmakers. Then when a value bet sets up on betfair make the bet. Usually when i do find valuebets on exchanges it's on illiquid markets with max few thousands of dollar in volume traded and average bet sizes of 10-100. Say there is only few 1000 dollar traded on a market on betfair. Then i compare it with the average prices of 200 bookmakers. On each of these bookmakers there might be conservative speaking 200 dollar traded (just a guess). That's 1000 dollar on betfair vs 200*200=40000. Why should betfair be more correct then the collective of bookmakers when it comes to obscure markets?

Do i see this wrong? How much volume is needed on an exchange for it to be correct? Or what should the average bet size be? Which also shows some type of conviction. People betting 10 bucks position sizes might not know more then the market does?...

Good question, I’ve read a scientific paper where the thesis was a punter could beat the closing odds of bookies by averaging the odds from multiple bookies by a Japanese professor and his team. From what I remember it was a success practically.

Value Punter wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:31 am

Good question, I’ve read a scientific paper where the thesis was a punter could beat the closing odds of bookies by averaging the odds from multiple bookies by a Japanese professor and his team. From what I remember it was a success practically.

basically looking for an outlier in a market without necessarily including Pinnacle or Betfair in the equation ?

Value Punter wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:31 am

Good question, I’ve read a scientific paper where the thesis was a punter could beat the closing odds of bookies by averaging the odds from multiple bookies by a Japanese professor and his team. From what I remember it was a success practically.

I'm doing this right now and it works very well for softbookies. Like when one bookie offers much better value then the average of all bookies covering that same event it's usually a good deal. I'm more sceptical if it works for sharps or exchanges. Because there could possibly be more fake value bets where information changed and the sharps just adapt quicker then softbookies. Which might make something show up as a value bet when it's not and the other bookies still have to change their odds.

I often see markets where betfair shows a value bet but hard to say if it's really a value bet...
Take this example in the attachment. Smarkets should also be considered sharp and has other price. Then all these other bookies have also other price. What does betfair know what others don't know?

If i'm laying (1x2) outcome 2 for example, someone else is backing it. And for a worse price they get on betfair then at other places. Sharps tend to shop around for the best odds. So it might be mispriced in this case.

What i also noticed, and it makes sense to me. Sometimes on betfair, orbit, and similar, the spreads will be super tight. And if you think about it, this makes a value bet show up faster. Because there is only small margin of error to be wrong for the bookmaker/market maker. The bigger the vig the harder it is to find any value at all.