Arbusers

Goojybooboo wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:30 am

Would you buy China now?


China.jpeg

No. I only buy from Democracies.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:46 pm

barret19 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:43 pm

What fundaments do you base yourself to evaluate ethereum,solana,XRP,polkadot as sh** coins?

ok

I would like to update you on this.

Today, I sold the majority of my stock holdings and that includes some large positions I lately built in PFE and BIIB that I cover in another thread. If you read my posts on SP500 you will see that I designated a target of 6200-6400 for this market cycle and it remains on the cards.
However, I believe that we see a Potemkin village that would present a rosie situation built exactly for the US voter. I have seen a very similar situation in Greece back in 2000. The vast majority of the SP500 stocks is bleeding but the index is breaking one record after the other. This is because the SP500 is being kept hostage from a very limited number of stocks, namely, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft.
I positioned my self very well in 2022 and the beginning of 2023 when everyone was shouting about a recession. In the beginning I outperformed the SP500 based on Netflix and META stocks but when I enriched the number of stocks I failed to keep up with the SP500 index. These last months, I m finding my self lagging, even losing money, when the SP500 is advancing in new heights.
This situation reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia.
As I explained in the Bitcoin thread, market participants are blindly following certain narratives that I m not ready to subscribe under. So the situation for me would be perfectly described like picking up pennies in front of the stream roller.


Notice, the targets for SP500 could very well be achieved, but this will happen only because of these 2-3 stocks, not because of a healthy situation. At this point in time I find it pure gamble to buy these 2-3 stocks and enjoy their potential. Thus, I select to stay out of this market.

And of course, you know what they say in these situations: Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Once again, thank you for the informative update, always appreciated, even when it is time to stop the party.

Now when you sold a lot of your positions lately, is it to early to speak about the next cycle? Or in general what now?
With your own analyses, why not become the stream roller and short the S&P500?

Lumberjack wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:57 am

Once again, thank you for the informative update, always appreciated, even when it is time to stop the party.

Now when you sold a lot of your positions lately, is it to early to speak about the next cycle? Or in general what now?
With your own analyses, why not become the stream roller and short the S&P500?

I am not one of these 5 (five) in total people who can successfully short the market.

Let's see if this cycle is ended first. Maybe it is not. Maybe I get in the market again, or maybe I stay in the sidewalk (or the pavement as they say in the UK). The turning points are always points of maximum uncertainty, and I can never be sure being wrong or right before the market proves me wrong or right. Usually, this takes time.

In this post I would like to answer to a very specific question.

What caused yesterday’s collapse?

Well, the usual talking heads are again bullsh.tting us with various explanations and narratives. Don’t fall for them.

What caused the collapse is the announcement that Warren Buffet sits on a record amount of cash, after selling his key positions in companies like Apple.

Market understood this investing legend is no longer trusting the narrative of the Bull market.

It is not technical or anything else.

In the past we have discussed the importance of the covers of ''The Economist''. The Economist, represents the analysis of the very deep state of the UK, and very often it signals important turning points of History and Stock Markets. Because of this, it always has a special value analysing their covers. Most of the times there is a parable, and the message has a dual reading. It is like a modern Pythia from Delphi.

Here is the latest cover of ''The Economist''. The discussion already started and everyone has a different opinion.


What is my take from it?

The title is praising the US economy.
But the photo is showing a burning US dollar at a form of a rocket.

These days the pioneer of rocket science is SpaceX of Elon Musk. If I wanted to translate it in simple worlds that would be it:

''With the help of Elon Musk, Trump will win the elections, and everyone will think that our economy will keep flying to the space, but in the end fire will burn us (or the US)''

I understand there is some more time before the catastrophe.

Man that'a grim take.

The predominant zeitgeist is thinking in a linear way when it comes to investing. Thus, the majority of market participants is doing a mistake when they believe an annual fix investment would do the job. Indeed in the past 2 centuries, real prices of US stocks have trended upwards. But not at the pace we imagine.

What caught my attention here is the fact, that bear markets are bringing real prices to meet tops that took place 57 to 97 years ago, and at least 2 cycles behind. If this norm is repeated again, real prices should meet the top of the 1970s in the next bear market.