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A hypothetical commission rate for betting exchanges

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B_arber
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A hypothetical commission rate for betting exchanges

Mon Jan 20, 2025 10:42 am

I trust the big guys here when they say that in arbitrage, funds flow from the sharp side (Betfair, Pinnacle) to the soft side (WillHill etc). Also, I admire the imagination some people show when practising parlay arbitrage as presented here: isn-t-the-arb-game-dead-t7469/

With both ideas being accepted as true, do you think it would work on our benefit, if we set the commission rate of all exchanges (Betfair, Smarkets, Matchbook etc) at 0% when making our calculations to lay a bet, even if we know that we pay 2-3-4-5%? Would that work for our benefit?

Thank you.
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arbusers
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Re: A hypothetical commission rate for betting exchanges

Tue Jan 21, 2025 9:35 am

Putting a hypothetical 0% commission rate in your hedging calculator will result in laying less than before. This is a very small step towards letting your bets run in the soft bookmaker without covering them in Betfair (or elsewhere). Why take the small step when you can go all the way?

I understand that laying in Betfair reduces variance in your results, and helps you sleep calmly at night. But in the long run Betfair takes a big chunk of your profits. I am not saying that you should simply let the soft side run. We discussed this so many times. You need proper filtering and staking to optimise your work. But once you get at the crest of the tidal wave, cruising gets fun and it becomes very profitable.

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