The biggest betting event of 2024 was, by far, the US Presidential elections. For years, the only reliable exchange offering this event was Betfair, and it offered a lot of arbitrage positions against the traditional bookmakers.
In today’s reality, the sophisticated bettor wants even more options, able enough to sustain bigger volumes, cross market arbitrage, and high volatility trading. The market demonstrated the need for new platforms, and a number of them made an impressive entry, in combination with a booming US gambling market. In this thread, I will compare Polymarket, Predictit and Kalshi, the most prominent platforms in the prediction market landscape, each offering unique features and experiences.
Odds
In smart betting it always comes down to the odds. Polymarket keeps a clear advantage here as it operates with almost no trading fees, allowing users to buy and sell shares freely (in reality it is the same like backing and laying an outcome). However, it charges a 1.5% withdrawal fee when users cash out their USDC. Since Polymarket is built on Polygon, network transaction fees are minimal. I will explain the fee structure of Polymarket in a future post.
Kalshi charges a trading fee of 1% per contract (capped at 10% of net profits), and has in place a settlement fee of 10% on net winnings when a contract resolves in a trader’s favour. Deposit and withdrawal fees vary depending on the payment method you choose.
PredictIt has one of the highest fee structures, with a 5% fee on profitable trades and an additional 10% withdrawal fee on any funds withdrawn. These high fees significantly impact long-term profitability.
Polymarket is the most cost-effective for all kind of bettors, while Kalshi comes with moderate fees. PredictIt is the most expensive, making it less attractive for high-volume trading. Polymarket holds a clear advantage here.
Reliability
Kalshi is a fully regulated platform, operating under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulatory compliance ensures a high level of reliability and legal assurance for users. PredictIt also operates within a regulated framework, focusing primarily on political events. However, it has faced legal challenges that have impacted its operations to a certain extend. Polymarket, operates in a regulatory gray area as there is no regulation mentioned in their website. This lack of formal regulation can pose some risks related to market manipulation and legal uncertainties, as we have seen recently.
User Experience
Polymarket, utilizing blockchain technology, offers a decentralised platform that appeals to users interested in a broader range of markets and real-time data. It takes advantage of various narratives and stories that circulate in social media, and when they see a growing trend they come with a betting event. The range of markets is unlimited, some times even funny. The requirement to use cryptocurrency (USDC) for transactions may be an obstacle for some users unfamiliar with digital assets. In Kalshi users can trade on a variety of events using fiat currency, making it accessible to a broader (old fashioned if I am allowed to say) audience. The available markets are limited compared to Polymarket’s. Predictit also operates with traditional fiat currencies, making it accessible to a broader audience, but at the same time it makes it more expensive, as their fees are higher compared to Polymarket. Again, the range of the offered events is limited.
Conclusion
Each platform presents distinct advantages and considerations:
Polymarket excels in offering a wide array of markets with substantial trading volumes, benefiting from real-time data and decentralised operations.
Kalshi provides a secure and regulated environment, appealing to users who prioritise legal compliance and a user-friendly experience.
PredictIt serves those interested in political event trading within a regulated framework but may face limitations due to its niche focus and regulatory hurdles.
You should consider your priorities regarding market diversity, regulatory assurance, and transaction methods when choosing a platform that best suits your needs. In my view, Polymarket holds a clear advantage and it is a must have exchange. You could also use all 3 of them in order to get the best available odds at any given time. Some times, the offered markets create arbitrages between the exchanges, but you ll have to compete with massive bot action that scoops up everything.
Polymarket vs. PredictIt vs. Kalshi: Which Prediction Market is Best for You?
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Polymarket vs. PredictIt vs. Kalshi: Which Prediction Market is Best for You?
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