Arbusers

I'm extremely impressed with the 14 yo Vaibhav Suryavanshi's IPL debut, he finished his appearance on the pitch, but all the Observers spotted the following: very elegant play, a moderately aggressive style of play for an opening Batsman, considering the target of 181, overcame his first PowerPlay at the highest level and survived till the 8.4 Ov, eliminated by the joint efforts of both extremely skillful IPL-ers Aiden Markram (bowling attack) & the fast WicketKeeper Rishabh Pant (stumping trap for no time), which ultimately led to the teenager's the final 170 S/R, 34 R, a double of Fours & a triple of Maximums!!!

Well done, Coach Rahul Dravid!

Judge for yourself:

iplt20.com/video/61297/14-year-old--tata-ipls-youngest-debutant-vaibhav-suryavanshi-announces-himself-with-a-bang-

The IPL 2025, Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals @ Eden Gardens right now,

Another Masterpiece from Riyan Parag, six Maximums within {12.2 Ov, 13.2 Ov}, combined with almost perfect Forecasts for new entry points (desired odds came a little earlier than the current Model predicted, but that's OK), combined with the immediate absorption of four-figure sums at the beginning of the queue of waiting positions for the new trend, when the market reacts with a strange delay of ∆(ComputedOdds)∈{Pre-SelectedObservedInterval} for Royals vs. Knight Riders!!!

What a game on the pitch, what a market battle on the platforms, OMG...

Your points of view about the Game & the Markets?

After the incredible final between KolkataKnightRiders and RajasthanRoyals 206/4 : 205/8 a few minutes ago, let's move on to PBKS/KingsXIPunjab vs LuckNowSuperGiants. The chosen tune-ups for today's Model forecast a new series of turbulent events starting in a few minutes (not just limited to the pre-match market battle and the strange odds offered, but also possibly strange decisions on the pitch and their consequences, as expected from the common Cricket Logic), please write your views here in that thread.

ICC World Cup League Two is in progress,
Unfortunately, the primary market for the Scotland vs UAE match has eliminated value, but some good well-hidden positions are still available in the secondary markets at the moment.

PSL 2025, Lahore Qalandars vs Karachi Kings right now,
At the same time, my Model has indicated some forecasted points somewhere in the { X Middle-Ov stage + Y PP}, considering the starting lineups. Hmm. Let's accelerate over Kelly the optimal calculated positions due to both David Warner and Shaheen Shah Afridi's suboptimal decisions in most observed time intervals.

The elegance with which Shashank Singh batted the bowling delivery from Avesh Khan in the 19.6 Ov a few minutes ago resembles some of Andrea Pirlo's most elegant deliveries in Italian Soccer.
Great Respect!

Building your own Math interpretation of the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern Method is never an easy task, despite the thousands of calculations over the years, after observing thousands of similar rainy positions on Cricket pitches around the Globe so far...

I made an initial error when the rain stopped the game and miscalculated some circumstances when the game duration was reduced to 15 Ov per team.

Next error - this resulted in the stop loss protection zone being incorrectly calculated and when the first point was reached by the market, an emergency zone adjustment was made by my side assuming the following conditions on the fly:
(1) Both teams would score at least 10.00 per Ov by the end of today's game as a new emergency trigger (actually I computed >87% likelihood of even 10.5 RPO per both Karachi & Lahore);
(2) I firmly accepted that no one will get All-Out by the end (>94% likelihood, too close to the critical Sigmas border zone);
(3) Revised Death OVs projection recalculated under the new circumstances, e.g. classical T20 Ov was shortened to 15 Ov, so I forecasted the most likely interval for the actual DeathOversStage to start as per my latest observations in contemporary Top-Notch Asian Cricket's tactics);
(4) Naturally, the acceptable Reward/Risk Ratio was the penultimate required condition, so the new emergency invented micro-Project was loaded with Generous Kelly Criterion even before Afridi's Wckt vs Daryl Mitchell;

Ultimately, I was extremely grateful for this revised on-the-fly trading plan due to the predicted very late final "boom-or-die" batting storm of Irfan Khan;
Somewhere circa the pre-final flow of maybe 11 & 12 OVs, the live odds were strongly in favor of Lahore Qalandars and the triggers pinpointed the last counting of disappearing live value positions for the Karachi Kings, and BOOM:
- Combined Batting Matrix Z: {IrfanKhan&Nabi: Six, Double 1, Double Six plus the confirmative (One, Six, One)};
- Nabi's 13 Runs vs Haris Rauf from 13.3 till Mitchell's Wckt is an object of a very different kind of Analysis;

As soon as I'm free tomorrow, I'll re-test again and again what the probabilities would have been if Mitchell's very late bowling delivery to Irfan Khan's batting at the very end of the winning over had happened minutes earlier when the Karachi team was somehow absolutely underdog according to the market...

Well, the markets went bonkers on the Karachi Kings' final sprint.

The IPL 2025, Mumbai Indians vs Gujarat Titans at legendary Wankhede is in progress right now;

Well, with those specific pre-match odds levels offered by the odds compilers, compared to our own calculated fair odds, there was no way we could miss the opportunity to significantly increase accordin' to Kelly our pre-match positions, of course, sensibly combined with the current trading plan drawn up today for the moment when the match went in live mode.

Observing all the matches of the Mumbai Indians team in IPL'25 so far, I spotted a very interesting trend, I mean the behavior of my own compiled technical indicators and the behavior of a family of personalized curves, that are extremely similar to selected technical indicators and a family of personalized curves in a selected time period for Miami Heat in the 2022/23 season. If you recall, Spoelstra's team didn't show its potential in the Eastern Conference and finished seventh. However, I was extremely impressed with the way Miami was able to reach peak sporting form on the pitch during the playoffs when they reached the grand final vs the Nuggets.

The Heat's performance technical indicators in the Eastern Conference are very close to those of Mumbai Indians from the early IPL 2025 matches when the Bowler Jasprit Bumrah was injured/missing and Rohit Sharma was out of supreme form. After Bumrah's recovery onwards, the internal interactions in Mumbai Indians' Bowling Department have improved significantly (including Hardik Pandya's ELO), as have some in the Batting Department (but the improvement is to a lesser extent compared to BD's one, also they are struggling to adapt to the contemporary reality of 200+ Runs into the T20 per team, compared to other teams and it seems to me that Coach Mahela Jayawardene prefers to comfortably achieve lesser Batting targets when the Bowling Dept would do the job easily), and I spotted the similarities between Miami's graphics and indicators in the playoffs with those of Mumbai Indians in the time frame starting from the Mumbai Indians vs Delhi DareDevils match held on April 13th onwards.

As for Gujarat Titans, in my opinion, they are currently playin' like HotSpurs from the days when they were under Martin Jol's management, at least that's what I see from the custom Graphics I've collected.
Naturally, since Gujarat Titans is a relatively young team, the preliminary analysis for the probabilities of some of the leaders' performances on the pitch today was formed mostly on strict pre-match fundamental analysis based on custom Stats (including the forecasting of today's performance of Rashid Khan, Shubman Gill and so on, but I was too surprised that Kagiso Rabada is missing from the starting line-up), while the component of the preliminary analysis for the Mumbai Indians team in terms of the vast amount of historical charts collected from my part and describing the Blue team over the years was equivalent to the fundamental analysis.

And so on.
I will not write about the fundamental justification of my calculations for today's match, which is within the thousands of Statistics and sheets that I do not have the time and desire to publish here, but all this helped me build today's tune-ups for the Model and calculate my fair odds before today's match.

Of course, there is no guarantee of one-time success in the very next match/event/market, but in the very long term, things have been proven by practice (based on Probability Theory & Kelly).

Alternative points of view?

Isn't the Cricket a Wonderful & Magnificent game of its highest?

I'm still under the emotions of what I spotted on the pitch minutes ago, not to mention the Big Chaos of the markets across the outlets, and
Mumbai Indians vs Gujarat Titans finished 155/8 : 147/7, but due to the DLS method applied, the Titans have won!

The next words are about the final liquidating of straight value positions, due to the hypothetic market Swans of an unrecognized kind appearing, read to the end and figure out:
When Gujarat Titans restricted the Mumbai Indians to 155/8 after their batting appearance, I had to calculate an emergency optimization task whether to hedge and exactly what percentage of the total amount through cross-market positions (due to my preliminary expectation of about 170 runs in the batting portion of the game for Mumbai), but rethinking the Coach Jayawardene's tactical approach from a historical perspective, I assessed that the difference of below 10 percent between my pre-start forecast in terms of Mumbai Indians' scored runs and reality before the break time leads to a slight increase in the risk component (happily well below the previously determined critical values) and I decided to invest additional value positions (i.e. until the end of the match), not to mention some of them even earlier at circa 6.00 odds for Mumbai Indians into (and not only in) their very non-competitive D.OV. stage, and other trading positions later the game at 2.5 for Indians, however, here specifically counting on a short-term retracing of the price due to the strong blinking triggers of BattingAcceleration>>BowlingResistance around the expected time interval of {end of the 2nd PP - early stages of MiddleOV}, i.e. GujaratTitans had lost only Sai Sudharsan at that time, and that particular deal was successfully closed at desired level after retracing of the price (remember the events on the pitch in the end of 2ndPP and thereafter). Let's get out of the trade and talk about valuable straight positions again - the additionally invested capital under Kelly during the innings break (again, at increased risk, but a much greater Reward/Risk Ratio, assuming Jayawardene will not change his tactical mind after the break time), and the last triggers for the very last series of market entries under the aforementioned hypotheses were at a market quota of circa 3.00 and so on, in Mumbai Indians' favor, the ground time circa and before {Jasprit Bumrah vs Shubman Gill and also vs Sh. Khan; Trent Boult vs Sherfane Rutherford; Kumar vs Rashid Khan!} achieved a total of four Wckts within... only 16 bowling deliveries (as I expected, reading Jayawardene's mind), but moments later... the rain stopped the game!!!

Due to my very recent errors in the calculation of the custom interpretation of the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern Method in a very recent match (PSL 2025 Lahore Qalandars vs Karachi Kings), I decided to play safe and sell via hedging at a market quota of below 1.5 all the initially placed as straight positions (collected mainly within the odds interval from circa 6 to circa 3 for Mumbai), no matter the Titans were below the announced par score according to the officials after stopping the game.
And guess what happened minutes later? The market Swan appeared - Gujarat with 8 runs scored below Mumbai's score (remember the Math rules for the DLS Method), somehow won in the very last second & batting shot of the game, and that's why we all need to accept that current trading plans we thoroughly created before the game, and especially those initially predefined as direct value positions, should be able to be easily changed for no time when traders' markets experience, cause very loud alarm bells...

I'd love to read about your experience and recommendations.

What disappointments for Cricket lovers, the failure of the two Masterpieces planned to play today, for reasons that have nothing to do with pure Sports:

(1) The PSL, Karachi Kings vs Peshawar Zalmi didn't start at all (and my extremely detailed preliminary analysis and preparation for today's match were frozen);

(2) The IPL, Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi DareDevils (weirdly known as Punjab Kings and Delhi Capitals) were allowed to perform till 122/1 (10.1 Ov) before the game was called off by the officials, i.e. no result was declared;

I'm sure the floodlight failure was an excuse to stop the game, I remember many matches (IPL ones included and not only) where they waited as long as possible to fix the floodlights.

The interesting thing here was the explosive KXIP start and all 120 Runs (plus 2 R as Extras) were achieved by the Opening Batsmen Priyansh Arya & Prabhsimran Singh;

Also, the KXIP's PowerPlay was slightly above my personal forecasts (11.5 RPO and no lost Wckt), considering factors such as the starting line-ups, the batting order by Ricky Ponting, and the pitch conditions and many more;

And last but not least, imagine for a moment that hypothetically this match had reached the end, I was wondering exactly what would be Natarajan's Stats (1 Wckt/ 3.42 Economy Rate / 7 bowling deliveries till the outage), while Kuldeep Yadav had no Wckt taken, 14.50 E/R for 12 bowling deliveries.