Arbusers

I’d like to highlight Stellantis N.V. as a stock that deserves serious attention. Formed in 2021 through the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Groupe PSA, Stellantis is a global automotive giant. Headquartered in the Netherlands, it owns 14 iconic brands, including Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, Fiat, Opel, and Maserati, and ranks among the top automakers worldwide by volume. The company enjoys a strong market presence in both Europe and North America.

The stock is listed on three major exchanges:
- NYSE (STLA) – traded in USD

- Euronext Paris (STLAP) – traded in EUR

- Euronext Milan (STLAM) – traded in EUR


For this analysis, I’ll be referencing charts from Euronext Paris.

Let me be upfront: I now hold a substantial position in Stellantis. This isn’t just theory or armchair analysis, I have real capital at work here, genuine skin in the game, unlike the talking heads on CNBC, YouTube, or X.

Why I’m Bullish: Technical Setup

My primary case is technical. The monthly RSI, a key indicator I rely on for its ability to cut through market noise, is recovering from its lowest level since 2009. This marks just the fourth time in the company’s chart history we’ve seen such deeply oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI is signaling the early phase of a new upward cycle, and my moving averages confirm the setup for a potentially significant move to the upside.
Add to this a dividend yield of 7.47%, which is exceptionally attractive in today’s environment of low bank interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.


For the Fundamentals Crowd

Not everyone believes in technicals (and, not surprisingly, these people never make it in markets). For those looking for a broader macro or fundamental story, here’s one:
The U.S. is scaling back its aggressive push toward EVs. Tesla, once the undisputed leader, is starting to lose its dominance in both the U.S. and Europe. In Europe, consumers are turning their backs on Elon Musk over his anti-European rhetoric that sometimes resembles to Russian propaganda. Tesla’s sales are already declining in wealthy European countries. The closer to Russia geographically, the biggest the drop.
In the U.S., the political fallout between Musk and Trump coincided with the end of EV subsidies, a key price advantage for Tesla. Without those subsidies, Teslas are becoming significantly more expensive. This creates a vacuum in the EV and hybrid space that someone will have to fill.
Stellantis is well-positioned to step in: a diversified brand portfolio, global manufacturing scale, and strategic presence in both major markets make it a prime contender. In addition, Stellantis has manufacturing points in both banks of the Atlantic, a prerogative envied by other car makers.

Investment Horizon

My investment horizon is 6 to 12 months, based on the data available TODAY. I’m expecting a strong and potentially astonishing performance from this stock during that timeframe. Not willing to talk about price targets at this point.

I hope you understand and realise what I m giving out for free to our members.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal views and actions and is meant for discussion purposes only. Always conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

I just bought 250 shares. Not a very large amount, but on the other hand it's the first time I follow your advice outside the betting/gambling sphere, so better to start with an amount I'm willing to lose

Meise wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 12, 2025 8:55 am

I just bought 250 shares. Not a very large amount, but on the other hand it's the first time I follow your advice outside the betting/gambling sphere, so better to start with an amount I'm willing to lose

€2.2k is a big amount for no research "gamble". That's not investing, it is a pure gamble.

Meise wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 12, 2025 8:55 am

I just bought 250 shares. Not a very large amount, but on the other hand it's the first time I follow your advice outside the betting/gambling sphere, so better to start with an amount I'm willing to lose

€2.2k is a big amount for no research "gamble". That's not investing, it is a pure gamble.

€2.2k is a big amount for no research "gamble". That's not investing, it is a pure gamble.

Well, I generally tend to trust Arbusers' research, and he has provided a lot of valuable advice over the years. More importantly, I'd like to think that I'm able to understand his case. Of course, I also did my own research. Unsurprisingly, not all analysts agree with Arbusers, and not all technical indicators give the same signals, but this is not uncommon. Finally, wealth is relative - I wouldn't risk this amount if I was not comfortable with the risk of losing it.

But we'll see in a few months, as usual...

probettor91 wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 12, 2025 9:19 am

Meise wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 12, 2025 8:55 am

I just bought 250 shares. Not a very large amount, but on the other hand it's the first time I follow your advice outside the betting/gambling sphere, so better to start with an amount I'm willing to lose

€2.2k is a big amount for no research "gamble". That's not investing, it is a pure gamble.

sometimes you just follow smart money

Like many of the other investing threads I’ve started here, I’ll use this one as an excuse to share a few thoughts.

In classic Technical Analysis (T.A.), one of the key concepts I look for is confluence, the alignment of multiple independent indicators, patterns, or tools that all point to the same market outcome. But here’s the reality: perfect confluence doesn’t exist. You’ll never get a 100% aligned signal when selecting a stock.

So, how do I deal with this lack of perfect alignment?

- I rely on the most credible indicators, such as RSI, tools I’ve studied and understand thoroughly.
- I choose to operate on larger timeframes, instead of limiting my view to days, hours, or even minutes like some traders do.
- I consider the macro context or what I’ll loosely call "adjacency", how the specific opportunity aligns with the broader market cycle.

This approach reminds me of something from the military: in war, you never have all the information you want. If you wait for 100% clarity before acting, you’re either going to die or miss the chance to strike. Real fighters make decisions when they have about 70% of the information they need. The same mindset applies to investing. You’ll never have complete analysis or perfect data. If you wait for it, the opportunity will be gone.

Now, I’m fully aware that T.A. is not widely respected. Many consider it pseudoscience or even charlatanism. I’m not here to convince anyone otherwise. But since most of us in this forum have experience with value betting, let me draw a parallel:

Value betting is a strategy where you place a bet when the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the actual probability of the outcome. In a similar way, Technical Analysis helps you spot investment opportunities where the risk-reward is more favourable than the consensus perception.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, just like a value bet can lose, a technically sound investment can go south too. That’s the game.

And finally, a timeless rule: Don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose.

You know the disclaimer.