This is our last poll for now. We are trying to create a picture of the average smart bettor, if this person exists.
Thank you for participating.
Pre-game, Live, or both?
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 28
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
Do you think that the Arbusers community is representative of the smart betting community as a whole, or do you think that it might have some bias, in the sense of perhaps being more professionalized?
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arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 655
Post
Somehow, we are representative but not as a whole. Almost 11.000 members spread globally, but mostly Eurocentric. The majority of our members have arbing and value betting as a background, but I do recognise that other communities have routes in poker, casinos, esports and recently cryptos. Some bias should be there.
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2024 12:13 pmDo you think that the Arbusers community is representative of the smart betting community as a whole, or do you think that it might have some bias, in the sense of perhaps being more professionalized?
Somehow, we are representative but not as a whole. Almost 11.000 members spread globally, but mostly Eurocentric. The majority of our members have arbing and value betting as a background, but I do recognise that other communities have routes in poker, casinos, esports and recently cryptos. Some bias should be there.
- login1
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 0
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
Next interesting question would be how many % use incognito browsers for betting
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
An interesting question, if I may hijack - how many trade based on:
- alerts software only
- custom value betting software or filters
- proprietary models - sports modeling
- proprietary models - identifying smart money
- other?
I’m in the sports modeling camp, and I assume that the majority here is mainly about alerts software or custom alerts, but probably much more that I don’t know about.
- alerts software only
- custom value betting software or filters
- proprietary models - sports modeling
- proprietary models - identifying smart money
- other?
I’m in the sports modeling camp, and I assume that the majority here is mainly about alerts software or custom alerts, but probably much more that I don’t know about.
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arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 655
-
arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
- Karma: 655
Post
This is penetrating deep into the core of business of our members and I believe they wouldn't want to answer it for obvious reasons. Maybe they could give false answers too.
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
ex-hft wrote: ↑Sat Dec 14, 2024 7:15 pmAn interesting question, if I may hijack - how many trade based on:
- alerts software only
- custom value betting software or filters
- proprietary models - sports modeling
- proprietary models - identifying smart money
- other?
I’m in the sports modeling camp, and I assume that the majority here is mainly about alerts software or custom alerts, but probably much more that I don’t know about.
This is penetrating deep into the core of business of our members and I believe they wouldn't want to answer it for obvious reasons. Maybe they could give false answers too.
- crypto data
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 8
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 28
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
What about the sports we mostly bet?
Maybe there are someone that bet on Surf, or others. But my guess is that football, tennis and basket is around 90% of the action.
Maybe there are someone that bet on Surf, or others. But my guess is that football, tennis and basket is around 90% of the action.
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
Post
In my defense (or naivete...), I always said that it works fine for me
)
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
It is for me - but like arbusers said, if someone has found a profitable niche (maybe esports or something), they probably wouldn't say. Reminds me of the story with singbet, how everyone said that it sucks, until it was removed from mollybet and everyone started to cry...CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 14, 2024 9:15 pmWhat about the sports we mostly bet?
Maybe there are someone that bet on Surf, or others. But my guess is that football, tennis and basket is around 90% of the action.
In my defense (or naivete...), I always said that it works fine for me
)-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 30
Post
Mr. Ex-HFT, you shoot straight into the Top Ten!
Mr. Arbusers is absolutely right, no one is goin' to reveal her/his inventions here due to the possibility of jeopardizing her/his hard work, but let me share some thoughts regarding items #3, 4 and 5 you've mentioned above:
- Proprietary modeling is much better than the known classical approaches so far, provided that you know exactly what you're doing (it requires unimaginably vast experience, you know the 10.000-hour rule, and so forth);
- The Scientific Method is mandatory for everyone, so as not to fall into the trap of hypothetical self-deception somewhere during stage X or Y of their business activity;
- You mentioned OTHER as an option, this is a rather broad concept and here I remember Einstein's words "Imagination is more important than knowledge", I mean there are times when some ideas/solutions/forecasts pop into your Mind out of nowhere and it's inexplicable, but if you trust it, it works wonderfully. Have you ever fallen asleep after a hard and tiring mental job, and your mind worked while you were physically asleep, and woke up with a ready-made solution?
- Proprietary modeling, which follows smart money, attracted by the possibilities offered by the weight of money (if I understood you well), is just one of the endless possibilities;
For example, if you strive to:
(1) Properly handling the Array of the following: {your Model has triggered something unique in terms of your own calculated probabilities that are in the dream zone of >> than the implied probabilities suggested by the oddsmakers' offered odds within the timeline} plus {countermeasures on exactly how to minimize the damage from the large margins & lower market limits} plus {etc, etc, etc},
then:
(2) Even hidden jewels, that ∈ to the set of the much lower liquid competitions even than a single game that ∈ {EPL, NFL, IPL, BigBash, NBA, MLB and so on} are hypothetically among the high-value assets.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed, EXCEPT in the very long run, provided you have tuned your proprietary Model very well, i.e. you haven't overlooked past inevitable errors that enlighten your future work.
A very recent example: a few hours ago I posted an opinion here on that Forum regarding the Soccer match Hajduk Split vs. Rijeka;
I'm sorry I can't reveal big details of my plan for that game, but let me mention that I follow those teams very closely and according to my pre-match calculations:
- the pre-match offered BTTS odds were unreal, they seemed to me to have been swapped;
- the pre-match offered First Half AH(-0.75) odds were mystically calculated by the oddsmakers as well;
- Ivan Rakitić's yellow card triggered such probabilities, that even the 12-minute stoppage time couldn't wipe those ones, but the odds providers offered some longer shots than the real ones.
Imagine the effect of these three abovementioned facts of immense value introduced even into Classical Kelly without your personal modification.
Although I prefer to deal with many games with much more liquidity, when odds compilers offer nonsense for unknown reasons/calculations, for example, the Buffalo Bills currently lead 21:14 vs the Detroit Lions, and I'm amazed why the oddsmakers were posting such strange market offers moments before the {2nd and Goal} which led to the first Josh Allen's Touchdown. At the same time, I have to stress that later lines' management from 7:0 to 14:0 was quite stable, but circa the {3rd & 9} and Patrick's TD, I spotted some irregularities.
In my opinion, it's not among the best options to place new positions before the middle of the third quarter today.
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
ex-hft wrote: ↑Sat Dec 14, 2024 7:15 pmAn interesting question, if I may hijack - how many trade based on:
- alerts software only
- custom value betting software or filters
- proprietary models - sports modeling
- proprietary models - identifying smart money
- other?
I’m in the sports modeling camp, and I assume that the majority here is mainly about alerts software or custom alerts, but probably much more that I don’t know about.
Mr. Ex-HFT, you shoot straight into the Top Ten!
Mr. Arbusers is absolutely right, no one is goin' to reveal her/his inventions here due to the possibility of jeopardizing her/his hard work, but let me share some thoughts regarding items #3, 4 and 5 you've mentioned above:
- Proprietary modeling is much better than the known classical approaches so far, provided that you know exactly what you're doing (it requires unimaginably vast experience, you know the 10.000-hour rule, and so forth);
- The Scientific Method is mandatory for everyone, so as not to fall into the trap of hypothetical self-deception somewhere during stage X or Y of their business activity;
- You mentioned OTHER as an option, this is a rather broad concept and here I remember Einstein's words "Imagination is more important than knowledge", I mean there are times when some ideas/solutions/forecasts pop into your Mind out of nowhere and it's inexplicable, but if you trust it, it works wonderfully. Have you ever fallen asleep after a hard and tiring mental job, and your mind worked while you were physically asleep, and woke up with a ready-made solution?
- Proprietary modeling, which follows smart money, attracted by the possibilities offered by the weight of money (if I understood you well), is just one of the endless possibilities;
For example, if you strive to:
(1) Properly handling the Array of the following: {your Model has triggered something unique in terms of your own calculated probabilities that are in the dream zone of >> than the implied probabilities suggested by the oddsmakers' offered odds within the timeline} plus {countermeasures on exactly how to minimize the damage from the large margins & lower market limits} plus {etc, etc, etc},
then:
(2) Even hidden jewels, that ∈ to the set of the much lower liquid competitions even than a single game that ∈ {EPL, NFL, IPL, BigBash, NBA, MLB and so on} are hypothetically among the high-value assets.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed, EXCEPT in the very long run, provided you have tuned your proprietary Model very well, i.e. you haven't overlooked past inevitable errors that enlighten your future work.
A very recent example: a few hours ago I posted an opinion here on that Forum regarding the Soccer match Hajduk Split vs. Rijeka;
I'm sorry I can't reveal big details of my plan for that game, but let me mention that I follow those teams very closely and according to my pre-match calculations:
- the pre-match offered BTTS odds were unreal, they seemed to me to have been swapped;
- the pre-match offered First Half AH(-0.75) odds were mystically calculated by the oddsmakers as well;
- Ivan Rakitić's yellow card triggered such probabilities, that even the 12-minute stoppage time couldn't wipe those ones, but the odds providers offered some longer shots than the real ones.
Imagine the effect of these three abovementioned facts of immense value introduced even into Classical Kelly without your personal modification.
Although I prefer to deal with many games with much more liquidity, when odds compilers offer nonsense for unknown reasons/calculations, for example, the Buffalo Bills currently lead 21:14 vs the Detroit Lions, and I'm amazed why the oddsmakers were posting such strange market offers moments before the {2nd and Goal} which led to the first Josh Allen's Touchdown. At the same time, I have to stress that later lines' management from 7:0 to 14:0 was quite stable, but circa the {3rd & 9} and Patrick's TD, I spotted some irregularities.
In my opinion, it's not among the best options to place new positions before the middle of the third quarter today.
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
Post
Cheers arb12, I think much of the same.
A question to you, regarding your detailed match analyses: do you watch games live as you bet? Is anything that you do fully automated?
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 15, 2024 10:51 pmex-hft wrote: ↑Sat Dec 14, 2024 7:15 pmAn interesting question, if I may hijack - how many trade based on:
- alerts software only
- custom value betting software or filters
- proprietary models - sports modeling
- proprietary models - identifying smart money
- other?
I’m in the sports modeling camp, and I assume that the majority here is mainly about alerts software or custom alerts, but probably much more that I don’t know about.
Mr. Ex-HFT, you shoot straight into the Top Ten!
Mr. Arbusers is absolutely right, no one is goin' to reveal her/his inventions here due to the possibility of jeopardizing her/his hard work, but let me share some thoughts regarding items #3, 4 and 5 you've mentioned above:
- Proprietary modeling is much better than the known classical approaches so far, provided that you know exactly what you're doing (it requires unimaginably vast experience, you know the 10.000-hour rule, and so forth);
- The Scientific Method is mandatory for everyone, so as not to fall into the trap of hypothetical self-deception somewhere during stage X or Y of their business activity;
- You mentioned OTHER as an option, this is a rather broad concept and here I remember Einstein's words "Imagination is more important than knowledge", I mean there are times when some ideas/solutions/forecasts pop into your Mind out of nowhere and it's inexplicable, but if you trust it, it works wonderfully. Have you ever fallen asleep after a hard and tiring mental job, and your mind worked while you were physically asleep, and woke up with a ready-made solution?
- Proprietary modeling, which follows smart money, attracted by the possibilities offered by the weight of money (if I understood you well), is just one of the endless possibilities;
For example, if you strive to:
(1) Properly handling the Array of the following: {your Model has triggered something unique in terms of your own calculated probabilities that are in the dream zone of >> than the implied probabilities suggested by the oddsmakers' offered odds within the timeline} plus {countermeasures on exactly how to minimize the damage from the large margins & lower market limits} plus {etc, etc, etc},
then:
(2) Even hidden jewels, that ∈ to the set of the much lower liquid competitions even than a single game that ∈ {EPL, NFL, IPL, BigBash, NBA, MLB and so on} are hypothetically among the high-value assets.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed, EXCEPT in the very long run, provided you have tuned your proprietary Model very well, i.e. you haven't overlooked past inevitable errors that enlighten your future work.
A very recent example: a few hours ago I posted an opinion here on that Forum regarding the Soccer match Hajduk Split vs. Rijeka;
I'm sorry I can't reveal big details of my plan for that game, but let me mention that I follow those teams very closely and according to my pre-match calculations:
- the pre-match offered BTTS odds were unreal, they seemed to me to have been swapped;
- the pre-match offered First Half AH(-0.75) odds were mystically calculated by the oddsmakers as well;
- Ivan Rakitić's yellow card triggered such probabilities, that even the 12-minute stoppage time couldn't wipe those ones, but the odds providers offered some longer shots than the real ones.
Imagine the effect of these three abovementioned facts of immense value introduced even into Classical Kelly without your personal modification.
Although I prefer to deal with many games with much more liquidity, when odds compilers offer nonsense for unknown reasons/calculations, for example, the Buffalo Bills currently lead 21:14 vs the Detroit Lions, and I'm amazed why the oddsmakers were posting such strange market offers moments before the {2nd and Goal} which led to the first Josh Allen's Touchdown. At the same time, I have to stress that later lines' management from 7:0 to 14:0 was quite stable, but circa the {3rd & 9} and Patrick's TD, I spotted some irregularities.
In my opinion, it's not among the best options to place new positions before the middle of the third quarter today.
Cheers arb12, I think much of the same.
A question to you, regarding your detailed match analyses: do you watch games live as you bet? Is anything that you do fully automated?
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arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 30
Post
Of course, the live fast analyses are important for me, except when:
- I have decided to set positions only pre-match (RARE, such as Justerini & Brooks);
- I have no video signal.
By the way, the NFL memorable clash Bills @ Lions has just finished, luckily most of my expectations happened close to their probability frames, but some didn't.
How exactly is it possible to predict the percentage probability of 48:42 happening i.e. the O/U 90 line provided that Kansas City won 21:7 vs the Browns earlier today...
???
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
Of course, the live fast analyses are important for me, except when:
- I have decided to set positions only pre-match (RARE, such as Justerini & Brooks);
- I have no video signal.
By the way, the NFL memorable clash Bills @ Lions has just finished, luckily most of my expectations happened close to their probability frames, but some didn't.
How exactly is it possible to predict the percentage probability of 48:42 happening i.e. the O/U 90 line provided that Kansas City won 21:7 vs the Browns earlier today...
???- login1
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 0
Post
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
Post
That makes sense that it would help - but it also has drawbacks of course. Both because of scale (fully automated is much better here) and because of the ability to backtest historical results - if you rely on your own judgement.
Re: Pre-game, Live, or both?
arb12 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2024 1:12 am
Of course, the live fast analyses are important for me, except when:
- I have decided to set positions only pre-match (RARE, such as Justerini & Brooks);
- I have no video signal.
By the way, the NFL memorable clash Bills @ Lions has just finished, luckily most of my expectations happened close to their probability frames, but some didn't.
How exactly is it possible to predict the percentage probability of 48:42 happening i.e. the O/U 90 line provided that Kansas City won 21:7 vs the Browns earlier today...
That makes sense that it would help - but it also has drawbacks of course. Both because of scale (fully automated is much better here) and because of the ability to backtest historical results - if you rely on your own judgement.
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