Arbusers

I would like to discuss the reasons why value betting accounts last longer in time generally than arbing accounts. Some reasons i think contribute to this are:

1.Lower stakes - Lower stakes accounts rise a red flag after more time than high rolling accounts
2.Less deposit withdrawals - Since the stakes are lower the account goes larger in balance slower so the withdrawal comes at a later time. Same for deposits.
3.Higher average value - If you arb and your average yield is 3%, if you dont cover bets to the other side and dont pay vig you are in fact taking a value bet of 7%-8% this results in faster account limitation when arbing because you are betting only on high percentage value.

If you have noticed other reasons not mentioned please add to this topic.

but you make a lot more wagers so you can get caught a lot easier.

4. If you know how to find value on "market odds" then you don´t stand out at the bookmakers. 

Furthermore there are other advantages as it is easier to valuebet on a restricted account than arbing (making the account tecnically stay longer)
The problem here is though you need to detec way more bets with value.

I was trying to put every sure bet I found only on the bookie which was the reason to this arbitrage... Didn't take long to realise that this was a bad idea...

huntybonusty wrote: I was trying to put every sure bet I found only on the bookie which was the reason to this arbitrage... Didn't take long to realise that this was a bad idea...

It takes a lot of time to get used to finding which leg holds the value if you arb soft to soft, but if you arb against sharps there are only some rare cases of value traps which most of the time are pretty obvious. If you put only a small number of bets it can be just variance.

Lumberjack wrote: 4. If you know how to find value on "market odds" then you don´t stand out at the bookmakers. 

Furthermore there are other advantages as it is easier to valuebet on a restricted account than arbing (making the account tecnically stay longer)
The problem here is though you need to detec way more bets with value.

This is very true for the moment but a lot of people are starting to use market odds. I think the best case is to identify value based on sports and leagues, where locals are sharper than others. But it takes a lot of time to build up the necessary data for this to work out.

Hello. I have such a question that I want to start my adventure with Valuebets live using the betburger search engine. I want to start playing early at bookmakers like Bet365 and Bwin. Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine? Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets? How many% Valuebets are best to play? Thanks for the help in advance. I am waiting for advice.

Wolfie wrote:

huntybonusty wrote: I was trying to put every sure bet I found only on the bookie which was the reason to this arbitrage... Didn't take long to realise that this was a bad idea...

It takes a lot of time to get used to finding which leg holds the value if you arb soft to soft, but if you arb against sharps there are only some rare cases of value traps which most of the time are pretty obvious. If you put only a small number of bets it can be just variance.

Do you mean is almost a murder for our accounts if we take values from software? I dont understand what you mean holding legs if you go for example live on BB or oddstorm and place your bet.  i really aprreciate Wolfie if you reply my creating post today. Thank you

Deny23 wrote:

Wolfie wrote:

huntybonusty wrote: I was trying to put every sure bet I found only on the bookie which was the reason to this arbitrage... Didn't take long to realise that this was a bad idea...

It takes a lot of time to get used to finding which leg holds the value if you arb soft to soft, but if you arb against sharps there are only some rare cases of value traps which most of the time are pretty obvious. If you put only a small number of bets it can be just variance.

Do you mean is almost a murder for our accounts if we take values from software? I dont understand what you mean holding legs if you go for example live on BB or oddstorm and place your bet.  i really aprreciate Wolfie if you reply my creating post today. Thank you

The smaller the pool of advantage players your account is part of, the more it will last. Since most of advantage players are using same softwares to find value, they go all to the same pool of players rising flags. So its better if you make your own customization of filters. You can keep the arbing software open while you are value betting, it will be easier to spot which bookie has the error in judgment.

It is my understanding that the best Value Betting is conducted live and not pre-game. At least most of our members are practising live value betting, and I would advise those interested to focus on it.
It is very difficult for a bookmaker to determine which action is sharp and which is not, when it comes from live action. Pre-game action is easy to be checked with various tools bookmakers use for almost 2 decades now. Even a manual check would do the job.
But when they have to see if your bet at the 65th minute of the game is dangerous or not, bookmakers are getting lost in an ocean of data. What is left for them is to see your long term P/L perspectives and they will need a lot more time to understand who is milking whom.

Be careful when value betting live, its total different from pre-match.
Variance is way higher -> more bets, higher odds, more bets per match (mainly handicaps and overs on tennis matches), easier to miss / take wrong values.

Also it is yet to prove that Pinnacle/Betfair exchange are as sharp as they are on pre match closing odds.

peny22 wrote: Hello. I have such a question that I want to start my adventure with Valuebets live using the betburger search engine. I want to start playing early at bookmakers like Bet365 and Bwin. Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine? Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets? How many% Valuebets are best to play? Thanks for the help in advance. I am waiting for advice.

Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine?
Filters are very personal and no one would give them i suppose.

Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets?
You can play all sports as long as you find value.

How many% Valuebets are best to play?
I would say 3% or more, otherwise variance might kill you.

Wolfie wrote:

peny22 wrote: Hello. I have such a question that I want to start my adventure with Valuebets live using the betburger search engine. I want to start playing early at bookmakers like Bet365 and Bwin. Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine? Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets? How many% Valuebets are best to play? Thanks for the help in advance. I am waiting for advice.

How many% Valuebets are best to play?
I would say 3% or more, otherwise variance might kill you.

Can you explain maths about how can kill you 2% arbs?

Deny23 wrote:

Wolfie wrote:

peny22 wrote: Hello. I have such a question that I want to start my adventure with Valuebets live using the betburger search engine. I want to start playing early at bookmakers like Bet365 and Bwin. Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine? Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets? How many% Valuebets are best to play? Thanks for the help in advance. I am waiting for advice.

How many% Valuebets are best to play?
I would say 3% or more, otherwise variance might kill you.

Can you explain maths about how can kill you 2% arbs?

Value bets not arbs. Run a monte carlo simulation with 3% or more value, and run the same simulation with 2% value. There is a big difference on the probability of going out of your bankroll. But if your bankroll is way big and your stake a very low portion of it, than 2% should be fine too. But why waste accounts with 2% value  even if thats the case.

Deny23 wrote:

Wolfie wrote:

peny22 wrote: Hello. I have such a question that I want to start my adventure with Valuebets live using the betburger search engine. I want to start playing early at bookmakers like Bet365 and Bwin. Can anyone advise on how to set filters in the betburger search engine? Which discipline is best for playing Valuebets? How many% Valuebets are best to play? Thanks for the help in advance. I am waiting for advice.

How many% Valuebets are best to play?
I would say 3% or more, otherwise variance might kill you.

Can you explain maths about how can kill you 2% arbs?

Be careful what you wish for.
I have been value betting live and Im almost down 40% down on a test account, this is in the last 2 weeks. Im staking 1% per bet on 4%+ value bets, sometimes more than one bet per match (a bit agressive).
If I destroy this bankroll, I can guarantee 100% that pinnacle and betfair are not sharp on live markets.