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Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:05 am

Either the country you are in is called Naiveistan, or you wont last as long before being banned as you think lol
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:03 am

This country may not be a cash cow since you have no long experience placing bets there, how they react, ect.
But it seems a good habitat to get you started and make some experience. I see you are not giving the name of country, maybe some users have experience there.
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:19 pm

De Graaf wrote: Hello Mike,

It might occur that at the moment of payment odds will be decreased. You need to test the offerings with an actual bet in the ~amount you intend to use.
Most of those places have their own (modest, often completely asleep), risk management. Repetitive behavior and you might get flagged resulting in reduced odds (just for you) or reduced max bet.

In places I went to a couple of years back, they had an automated authorization system => if your bet is a single (not a combo, you could do tricks with this) and the bet amount is above some arbitrary amount (less than the max bet) , someone from risk department needs to authorize. That does not mean it won't get accepted, often they would accept even ridiculous prices. Since locals are not exposed to the globe via www, they don't consider these problems as their highest priority. Being bounded to physical access means they have different problems, such as an incredibly one-sided book (99% of combo premiership bets which include top six teams are for favs).

You could do this manually (at least for a proper stress-test), it took me an ~hour to go through their whole offering. You won't be doing calculations, just have pinny(or any other proper book) odds on one side and the local odds on the other, you'll calculate only when they are way off. Some of these places run as built-in coffee shops, you could do this activity while in the shop. I used to run a bike through my locals, have a seat, make the tour. In two weeks you'll get to know the employees which may open other doors for you. To my mind, what bothered me is the habit of carrying stacks of cash in your pockets, along with the tickets and I would be a target and get mugged.

Most of these places offer 500+ games per match. If you cover your bets (i did not, hence value bets), you could use softs such as 365, if you have the patience and luck to find weak spots in the derivatives of your local ( they will have some silly bets like 2 goals scored in the first half and a red card in the second). Some of these can actually be covered (or at least partially, as in polish middles). It is another avenue you could pursue.
As an example: home win and btts cover all possible results except 0:0 and 0:1, there are some very interesting exotics that you could combine. (this is a fairly silly example)

If there is some actual long-term potential in the activity, next phase would be to move from manual to automated. To my mind, it is convenient to use an agent (if you go with covering in asia), scrape their service (ask the agent) and scrape the local bookie service (if they actual have a webpage), produce some sane looking spreadsheet and voila, you have reduced the hour of staring in coupons to a max 10 min activity. (also, you would be sharper and more responsive)

best of luck
Thank you very much for the long post.
Sounds like I have a steep learning curve as I don't understand some of what you said.
Are you saying you did not do arbitrage but rather were placing bets when the odds are mathematically in your favor? Were you betting mainly on the underdog or draw? (from what I read, most opportunities with high spread are on draw or underdog,not so much on the favorite)
How would I come up with a solid system for this which I would always follow to the letter?
For example, let's say the best odds for a football game on the underdog are 3.13 across all Western bookmakers (bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Marathon, etc.), meaning one of them offers 3.13 and the others offer less.
What coefficient at a local bookmaker would attract your attention? Would 3.19 result in a bet for example?
If I had a solid system I could follow and manage myself in Excel, I would start today. This sounds like fun :)
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:38 pm

MikeSeattle wrote:
De Graaf wrote: Hello Mike,

It might occur that at the moment of payment odds will be decreased. You need to test the offerings with an actual bet in the ~amount you intend to use.
Most of those places have their own (modest, often completely asleep), risk management. Repetitive behavior and you might get flagged resulting in reduced odds (just for you) or reduced max bet.

In places I went to a couple of years back, they had an automated authorization system => if your bet is a single (not a combo, you could do tricks with this) and the bet amount is above some arbitrary amount (less than the max bet) , someone from risk department needs to authorize. That does not mean it won't get accepted, often they would accept even ridiculous prices. Since locals are not exposed to the globe via www, they don't consider these problems as their highest priority. Being bounded to physical access means they have different problems, such as an incredibly one-sided book (99% of combo premiership bets which include top six teams are for favs).

You could do this manually (at least for a proper stress-test), it took me an ~hour to go through their whole offering. You won't be doing calculations, just have pinny(or any other proper book) odds on one side and the local odds on the other, you'll calculate only when they are way off. Some of these places run as built-in coffee shops, you could do this activity while in the shop. I used to run a bike through my locals, have a seat, make the tour. In two weeks you'll get to know the employees which may open other doors for you. To my mind, what bothered me is the habit of carrying stacks of cash in your pockets, along with the tickets and I would be a target and get mugged.

Most of these places offer 500+ games per match. If you cover your bets (i did not, hence value bets), you could use softs such as 365, if you have the patience and luck to find weak spots in the derivatives of your local ( they will have some silly bets like 2 goals scored in the first half and a red card in the second). Some of these can actually be covered (or at least partially, as in polish middles). It is another avenue you could pursue.
As an example: home win and btts cover all possible results except 0:0 and 0:1, there are some very interesting exotics that you could combine. (this is a fairly silly example)

If there is some actual long-term potential in the activity, next phase would be to move from manual to automated. To my mind, it is convenient to use an agent (if you go with covering in asia), scrape their service (ask the agent) and scrape the local bookie service (if they actual have a webpage), produce some sane looking spreadsheet and voila, you have reduced the hour of staring in coupons to a max 10 min activity. (also, you would be sharper and more responsive)

best of luck
Thank you very much for the long post.
Sounds like I have a steep learning curve as I don't understand some of what you said.
Are you saying you did not do arbitrage but rather were placing bets when the odds are mathematically in your favor? Were you betting mainly on the underdog or draw? (from what I read, most opportunities with high spread are on draw or underdog,not so much on the favorite)
How would I come up with a solid system for this which I would always follow to the letter?
For example, let's say the best odds for a football game on the underdog are 3.13 across all Western bookmakers (bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Marathon, etc.), meaning one of them offers 3.13 and the others offer less.
What coefficient at a local bookmaker would attract your attention? Would 3.19 result in a bet for example?
If I had a solid system I could follow and manage myself in Excel, I would start today. This sounds like fun :)
why are you so lazy?
people already advised you to read this forum cause all your questions were answered a few times before, but you still insist. and you want a bullet prof system..    for free... 
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:21 pm

MikeSeattle wrote: Second, I really don't think limit/ban will be a problem. They have an official maximum and it's way more than I would bet.
Sooner or later you will be limited. Even local shop bookmakers have odds feeds for falling odds and big movements.
Sure you can get some win / win situations, but you came to point whether you can earn much more money in regular full time job, then constantly looking for surebets (especially manual searching is very boring). Unless you live in country where regular meal is 1usd/1eur.

I have phone numbers of staff (shop operators) from 10 different local bookmakers, and for sure I was 30 seconds from placing bet in local shop and covering/selling online at sharps. Also with custom tailored arbitrage solution and after a while they cut limits, cut odds, limit me as anonymous user and whole bussiness of sharbing gone within a month.

So how you know that ban will not be a problem - when you didn't even find an arb or tried to place a bet on dropping odd?
Last edited by djordjeno on Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:24 pm

Again not to discourage you,

I suggest you start betting already and see what comes up and then find answers to you problems or ask here. It is easier that way since the shops are closer, you wont be lossing much in time and cost and you will end up gaining something before you are banned or limited in all the shops.

My one advise is this, if you want to last long in sharbing, bet like a normal punter. Bet only on bet leagues, the shops have big limits on them and also of people betting too, and try to bet it one day or two days ahead. That give them time to cover your bet even if it is in large volume.

Also try using odds that are very low, in shop betting it is normal to find someone betting 3000 euros on the odd of 1.3 than someone betting 1000 euros on the odd of 2.00 ( this raise a flag fast).

i know that i usually find 1.3 odd every day in the shop betting here, so if it lay it at betfair, even with the commission of 2.5 percent, i still gain 1 percent arbing. So using 5000 euros every day give 50 euros. That is not so bad. but of course not in one shop.

so start Man, and come back after 2 weeks, you will have better questions.

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