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Royal Dutch Shell

Where to invest the surplus of funds
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Wolfie
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:58 am

@arbusers i see you are commenting more and more about stocks. I think this area is gold. There is a significant difference between stocks and gambling. In gambling if you share your picks you are fucked. But in stocks if you share your picks you influence the market to go your way. So its profit for everyone. I think a lot of people would like to have basic training videos or articles of how to read the stock market.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:23 am

arbusers wrote: Congrats Alfa1234.
Do you have any exit plan, or are you gonna keep it in the long run?
They rigourously defend their dividend, which gives me over 14% ROI on the dividend payments.  It would not be wise to get out as it's hard to find investments that pay better than that. 
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arbusers
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:41 am

Alfa1234 wrote:
arbusers wrote: Congrats Alfa1234.
Do you have any exit plan, or are you gonna keep it in the long run?
They rigourously defend their dividend, which gives me over 14% ROI on the dividend payments.  It would not be wise to get out as it's hard to find investments that pay better than that.
The thing is that when they pay the dividend, the price will collapse by more or less 14%. Maybe this is the reason why funds are buying it.
Wolfie wrote: @arbusers i see you are commenting more and more about stocks. I think this area is gold. There is a significant difference between stocks and gambling. In gambling if you share your picks you are fucked. But in stocks if you share your picks you influence the market to go your way. So its profit for everyone. I think a lot of people would like to have basic training videos or articles of how to read the stock market.
Our Youtube channel is not a popular one. We see little to no interest in our videos in regards to smart betting, so what is the reason to produce videos for the stock markets? Let's see how this crisis goes and then I will see if I continue offering insights to a limited number of people.
Last edited by arbusers on Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:47 am

I would like to see that videos or posts about stocks.
And if i can contribute with something, i am open to do it even after this crisis is gone, and we come back to our normal job.
We all see, with this crisis, that even us could lose our jobs, so it's good to learn other ways to find profit.
I was this days learning what's the meaning of each product, opened a demo account and bet in a lot of different positions, to see how is moving each one.
You have to be very careful. One mistake and you can lose even more money than you invest.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:57 am

The thing is that when they pay the dividend, the price will collapse by more or less 14%. Maybe this is the reason why funds are buying it.

No, because at the current price the ROI is already much lower so it would not drop by 14%.  Longer term, the paying of dividends has little bearing on the stock price as it will climb again as a new payment comes nearer. 
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:02 pm

CharlieSheen99 wrote: I would like to see that videos or posts about stocks.
And if i can contribute with something, i am open to do it even after this crisis is gone, and we come back to our normal job.
We all see, with this crisis, that even us could lose our jobs, so it's good to learn other ways to find profit.
I was this days learning what's the meaning of each product, opened a demo account and bet in a lot of different positions, to see how is moving each one.
You have to be very careful. One mistake and you can lose even more money than you invest.
You are trading with leverage or CFD's if you can lose more than you invest.  This is totally different than simply buying stocks and much more difficult.  You are trying to gain pips and profit on smaller movements of the stocks or currency pairs this way.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:31 pm

You are right, most dangerous are those ones.
Anyway, for example if you buy petroleum, you have to know exactly at which price the margin will be overcome, to know exactly how much do you want to bet...., i just say that is not as easy as bets. ;D ;D

Buying stocks, no problem at all.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:56 pm

You get to know news from arbusers, weeks before CNBC.
Could you really pinpoint just 1 analyst in the world providing this level of analysis?
arbusers wrote: 3. The oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will finish at some point. It is obvious that Saudi Arabia is capable to export oil with profit even in teen prices. Russia is not, because mining is more expensive in Russia than Saudi Arabia. But that doesn’t mean the Arabs will win the war. The reason is that low energy prices are damaging the US. The US invested trillions of USD in shale gas and will not allow the Saudi’s to kill this multi-trillion investment. You might ask, how could the US persuade the Saudi’s to let prices go higher. The answer is called ‘’The Quincy Agreement’’. According to this agreement, the U.S. is providing Saudi Arabia military security and assistance, training, and above all the preservation of the Monarchy, in exchange for secure access to supplies of oil. In a nutshell, the US will kindly remind the Saudi’s that prices have to go up when the US want’s to do so…or else. I believe the same happened back in 2016. Notice, that Trump’s first trip abroad right after his inauguration, was to Saudi Arabia, and not Israel, UK, or Canada as some would expect.
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:15 pm

Why this confidence in US power?
Maybe Saudi Arabia could put more pressure right now, in this hard times, where US can just focus on themselves, to create a super stock of petroleum and maintein lower prices for years without an extra-effort.

If there is a momment where US is not in a good position is this one.

At the same time, wars require money, and right now US, like the rest of the world is producing almost zero, and they cannot destinate one dollar to any war, because no one will understand that right now....

So if there is a momment to make a lot of damage to US fracking business is right now.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:31 pm

Your analysis is perfect arbusers, well done.
But you don't have the balls to take advantage of the full move. You only got 35% while you could have an 80% profit. Is this success or failure? You tell me.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:58 pm

great analysis, not a penny on  ;D What platform are you guys using?
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:55 am

balls of steele wrote: But you don't have the balls to take advantage of the full move. You only got 35% while you could have an 80% profit. Is this success or failure? You tell me.
Only God buys at the bottom and sells at the top.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:29 pm

balls of steele wrote: Your analysis is perfect arbusers, well done.
But you don't have the balls to take advantage of the full move. You only got 35% while you could have an 80% profit. Is this success or failure? You tell me.
If we calculate balls as amount of money you have you would be left with no balls in no time with this kind of strategy. ????
Seriously now, the essentials of value betting can be applied in stock market too. But there is a difference we become aware with your example. In value betting the position is closed by itself when match ends. You either win or lose. In long run you are supposed to win if value is calculated right. But in value investing, the position is open all the time and you decide when to close it. This makes a huge difference because you need to calculate value exactly right so you can close position in time. Market noise plays a role too. You cant predict people perceptions all around the globe and what amount of noise in that particular stock they produce. So closing position without reaching your full value expectation is the right move. At least 2-3 percent in normal times. In covid 19 times, it becomes easier or more difficult depending on what type of reaction you have as a trader in special circumstances.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:07 pm

apoel81 wrote: great analysis, not a penny on  ;D What platform are you guys using?
I also want an answer here.I registered at Interactive Brokers 7 days ago,and my application is still pending.I have sent all my documents and at live chat they said "we do as fast as we can,we give priority".Waiting reply from them.

Some others reliable brokers after google search(if you are new).The first 2 will not accept you if you are outside USA.
Fidelity Investments: Best Online Broker
TD Ameritrade: Best Broker for Beginners
tastyworks: Best Broker for Options
Interactive Brokers: Best Broker for Advanced Traders
Charles Schwab – Best for customer service.
Robinhood – Best for digital user experience.
E-Trade – Best for ongoing education.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:59 pm

Hello everyone,

Great call on RDSA.
It happened that oil sector was first to bounce and Shell, along with Total which has similar dynamics, performed better that their US peers. One of the reasons is that EU companies have zero exposure to shale oil and the other is that they work with bigger margins.

On that trade, i would go cash around € 17-18 last week and wait for another entry in high fourteens, low fifteens, depending on general market behavior.

Long term, this is an investment for your retirement portfolio.
A common practice if you get a quick 30% return, is to keep the proportion of these shares in the house.

PS. Oil is gonna puke on Monday...

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