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Royal Dutch Shell

Where to invest the surplus of funds
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arbusers
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:09 pm

Royal Dutch Shell cuts the dividend for the first time since 1945. A very interesting interview with the CEO in regards to the current state of play. The dividend is now 16$ per share.

phpBB [video]


Shell has 30BN in liquid assets, and it seems to me also having a number of credit lines. It is encouraging the management is solid.
Last edited by arbusers on Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:21 am

What is happening here? Boss, we need an analysis. 11.01 right now.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:53 am

We discussed with Neopas my opinion for RDSA.

I would like to inform you that some Gulf sovereignty funds bougth a big number of RDSA shares at a price range of 14-17 euros. These funds are not famous for picking stocks at bottom prices, but they are very famous for stock picking with excellent results in the long run. This is what they did with CITIGROUP during the GFC. They bought at high odsprices, but after a year or so, they enjoyed dividents and growth.
At the same time, I am sure that many airliners (believe it or not) bought RDSA shares for future hedging.

All these show that RDSA is an excellent choice. However, even though the P/E is somewhere around 9.8-10,5, I believe we can wait a little bit and try bying this excellent stock at a lower price. In addition, we have an important landmark in front of us, the US election on November the 3rd, that creates great uncertainty.

So IMHO, we should wait for some prices at around 10, or even lower. I m adding a new criterion for RDSA, this is the Relative Strength Index, that should go under the area of 20 to give us more confidence.

In addition, this is a cyclical stock, and will signal to us when a new business cycle is about to be born.

RDSA latest.png
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:14 am

With most of Europe facing new lockdowns already, it is obvious that the market already values some negative developments. The sentiment is again negative in Europe as many start to realize that Covid19 is here to stay. What is more important is realizing that a hummer and a dance is ahead of us, probably for a substantial amount of time. However, this dance might be happier for RDSA, than others. Already, the company announced some great profits for Q3 and the CEO announced that dividends will be lifted. In addition, there are plans for stock buybacks and returned cash to the stock owners.

As mentioned earlier, some very strong hands supported the stock at a much higher price (14-17 range) and these hands are expected to stay in the stock for some decades.

On the negative side, there is always the possibility of an existential threat for the energy sector, if the green economy takes the lead. But at the same time, RDSA is already investing in the green economy, probably more than others. Especially for this matter, I might come back with another post that will allow us to profit from the green economy.
The market is also pricing in, the US elections, as it is expected that  Biden presidency will be greener than Trump's.

For all these reasons, I once again build a position in RDSA. This is moderate and I keep enough firing power for future placements. It is a pity that I did not buy my stocks yesterday at 9.88 but the timing might be an Olympic scale feat. My today's placement is at 10.40.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:33 am

The dividend performance at this point is 6%. If there is a surplus of money that will not be needed somewhere else, you get 6% and you always have some chances for the future growth of the stock price. Energy is cyclical and the trend will flip sooner or later.
Thank you for sharing opinion and info.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:15 am

I am coming back to the RDSA case to support my argument with an important technical analysis indicator. This is the Relative Strength Index 14 (RSI 14).
The daily RSI 14 could be used for trading reasons, but the more you zoom out, the more meaningful this index is. I am zooming out to the monthly level and I generated the following graph.

RDSA RSI14.png


What we see here is that RSI 14 for RDSA is at 18.99 and this is the lowest level since at least 2006, the year that Tradingview offers stats for this stock. This is a very rare level, especially for the stock of a big company like this one.
The level of 18.99 is giving us stronger confidence when we compare it with the March 23rd level that was around 22. It basically shows that buying now is a wiser move than buying in March.
Of course, this index could move even lower, but the lower it gets the better our odds are. Frankly, I would love to see it even lower, moving hand in hand with the stock price, which will allow us to buy some more, in a quick DCA style.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:59 am

For those who follow, a little extra bonus: RDSA@AEB (Name: ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-A SHS) announced a cash dividend with ex-dividend date of 20201112 and payable date of 20201216. The declared cash rate is USD 0.1665.

RDSA pays dividends for each quarter. The dividend performance is at 5.55% for me. Not bad.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:58 am

They also announced they would be increasing the dividend by an extra 4% annually from now on.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:54 am

Especially for those who will keep this share in the long run, I estimate that cash returns will take place after a couple of years, provided that corporate debt is paid.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:46 pm

arbusers wrote: For those who follow, a little extra bonus: RDSA@AEB (Name: ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-A SHS) announced a cash dividend with ex-dividend date of 20201112 and payable date of 20201216. The declared cash rate is USD 0.1665.

RDSA pays dividends for each quarter. The dividend performance is at 5.55% for me. Not bad.
why are u trading RDSA when the B shares are exempt of dividend withholding taxes?
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:52 pm

Who said I am trading?
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:33 pm

Words are not enough. Congrats.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:45 pm

You must be having some kind of inside information as your timing with Shell is unbelievable. You managed to buy at the exact bottom in both March and November. Even the times of your posting are some minutes away from the 1st bottom.
Speechless.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:41 pm

Every stock went up because of the announce of the vaccine.
Maybe Arbusers is a manager in Pfizer as well ;D ;D
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:46 pm

Where are you guys buying shares? Which platform? And why? :)

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