Royal Dutch Shell

Where to invest the surplus of funds
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arbusers
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:51 pm

Yes, under specific circumstances I would buy back that 50%. In order to have a clear signal that odds are on our side at this point in time, I would need to see a lower RSI and of course a lower price. Today I noticed a 14.10 EUR price, a discount of 10% of the price that I sold 50% of my position. That price was very lucrative and the RSI was significantly corrected. However, I decided to wait some more, because as previously said an epidemiologist's opinion worths more than an economist's. As far as I understand this mutation is not something that should worry us, because current vaccines are able to fight it too. However, this opinion might be premature.
For now, I prefer to allow the market to speak for itself and give us ideas on what lies ahead. A prediction about the direction of the stock market tells us nothing about where stocks are headed, but a whole lot about the person doing the predicting. As we always prefer taking asymmetrical bets, I also prefer to wait some more until the odds are on my side. Patience is a virtue.

As for the rest, no, there is no ''source of precious and valuable information'' as you say. This reminds me of the innumerable people who claim to have a source for fixed games, only to make their wallets thinner.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:04 am

Previous position reinstated. Average price of stock acquisition brought even lower.
I didn’t take advantage of the complete dip, but I am happy for those who did.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:35 am

Arbusers, i believe that Royal Dutch Shell is even now low(14,88) for long term investors.

October was the big bargain but for those who think longterm,i do not think its not a buy(like Warren buffet said best day to buy for long term is now).
Also the 5/100 dividend is too attractive.

Keep up good work here,we are waiting for the next update.
Believe to yourself is the secret to success.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:08 am

The stock (together with the stock markets) might need some breathing space before moving higher. This kind of move, with no violent ups and downs, is not easy to be exploited, and therefore I am sitting in my eggs and my current position.
I am preparing a detailed post in regards to potential exit points in time and in price.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:24 am

Today, I would like to speak some more about RDSA, and try to plot a path for the future. But before doing so, I must tell you that I am very happy for all of you guys that made a profit from this stock.

The Greek philosopher Socrates once said ‘’I know that I know nothing’’. But if you are ready to accept that, you are already one step ahead of those who don't accept it. This has a multiplier value in the stock markets, where randomness is dominant.

As previously said, If someone were to ask me today, "Which of the two predictions for the course of the economy would I prefer to hear: A good economist's or a good epidemiologist's?", I would certainly prefer those of the latter. So the analysis presented here is not based on the epidemiologist’s prediction.

Because of this randomness, it makes no sense trying to guess the price at any given moment. Market experience also shows that time-in has more value than timing, even though we had great timing with RDSA. At the same time, this stock has a very positive characteristic of supreme dividend performance and this gives an additional boost to time-in instead of timing. It also creates an excellent line of defense in the case that everything we think is wrong.

So far the Relative Strength Index provided an excellent buying signal and we were able to exploit it by buying at the historical All Time Low of the RSI. Because of this, we will use the same index to find an exit signal. As previously said, when in doubt, zoom out, and we will zoom out to the monthly graph of the stock.

Because the market is sneakier than us, we use technical analysis on the RSI and not the stock price itself. Have a look at the following graph:

RDSA latest.png


So we are able to identify a line of resistance that started in 2014 and was confirmed in 2018. This line is rooted very deep in the past and that provides additional confidence. We will need the RSI to test, or at least come close to this line before selling our positions. One of the characteristics of the RSI, is that it gains or loses momentum in the depth of time and that means that today’s extrapolations will not be valid tomorrow. But for the sake of the arguments, let’s make a very hypothetical scenario with what we have today. Let’s suppose this cycle’s top occurs on December 1st, 2021, 11 months from now.

Today’s RSI stands at 38. The low of November when we bought our shares was 18. That means that 20 RSI points, gave us approximately 4.5 euros in price. Proportionally, the remaining 25 RSI points until we meet the resistance line on December 1st, 2021, will add 5,625 euros to the price of the stock bringing it at approximately 20.25.

Again, I have to highlight that the RSI is dynamic and it changes from one day to another. This extrapolation is projected with what we have today.

Of course, whatever happens, we will enjoy the dividends that will add more value to our position. At the same time, we have the luxury and the privilege to acquire these stocks at much lower prices compared to the sovereignty funds, the carriers, and most of the High-Value Individuals.

I would like to add another comment here. We don’t use the Elliott Wave Theory because we can’t count the waves of this stock in a reliable manner. We can’t figure out if we should count 1,2,3,4,5 or ABC. The circularity of the market is not allowing us to use the EWT, but at the same time, we made that circularity another weapon in our arsenal.

And of course, as always…Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

This is 2021's first post on our forum, I hope time treats it courteously.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:21 am

Royal Dutch Shell yesterday announced an interim dividend in respect of the fourth quarter of 2020 of US$ 0.1665 per share. The record date is February the 19th. The Board expects that the first quarter 2021 interim dividend will be set at US$ 0.1735 per share, an increase of around 4% over the US dollar dividend for the fourth quarter 2020. The first quarter 2021 interim dividend is scheduled to be announced on April 29, 2021.

My current dividend performance is approximately 5.56%, an amount not to be neglected in today's 0 or negative interest rates,
and I re-invest all dividends in the same stock to benefit from the compound interest. 
Last edited by arbusers on Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:07 pm

This is to inform you that I sold all of my RDSA stocks at a price of 17.20.
All in all, our profits from this stock is approximately 70% plus dividends. I am grateful.

I will explain why I decided to sell the stock. Actually, it was signalling ''sell'' since the end of the last week. Lets see what these signals are:

1. There is a strong resistance at 17.9 EUR that denied twice the price to go above it.
2. There is a shooting star formation, a type of reversal pattern presaging a falling price.
3. There is a negative divergence formatting for more than 3 months now.

All these can be seen in the graph bellow.

RDSA.png


But we have some more clues that can't be seen in the graph above.
The weekly RSI indicates that whenever we reached this level, we always had the opportunity to buy at a lower price. If history is any indication of what will happen next, then here it is.
The market sentiment in the US is not good, and I expect a negative influence coming from there.

Again, this is not a financial advise and I am always happy for you guys when you make better trades than mine.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Last edited by arbusers on Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:56 pm

Managed to sell at 17.28 some minutes ago.
Thank you very much boss for this one too. There is no other forum with so much value.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:33 pm

I just sold at 17.20.
Do you plan buying back this stock at a lower price again.
And of course, thank you for your expertise.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:34 pm

Sold my 1000 at 17.22. I am keeping an additional 1000.
Thank you.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:10 pm

crowned wrote: I just sold at 17.20.
Do you plan buying back this stock at a lower price again.
And of course, thank you for your expertise.
I am watching this stock like a hawk and if certain criteria are met, I might buy it back.
However, the coverage of the stock markets are time consuming for me and I will stop supporting this thread. Dont expect me to announce my future transactions about RDSA. I believe I guided you safely with this stock and we should all be grateful for our profits.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:48 pm

I would love to know how do you do all this analysis.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:53 am

Very generally, I would advise that you reduce the stock weight of your portfolio significantly as the technicals are not good.

Seems to me the end of a cycle is near or already in. Even if it is 6 months away, the difference is not that big. Better leave some potential profits on the table than get caught on the vortex.
Last edited by arbusers on Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:01 pm

Beautifully done Arbusers. Thank you for your posts and share of knowledge over the years. A retrospective viewing makes for an enjoyable read.

On the topic of reading, I read an article today about Shell and my thoughts went to this thread somehow.

Cheers
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Re: Royal Dutch Shell

Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:05 pm

Thank you De Graaf.

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