S&P500 value zones identified
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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
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arbusers
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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
I would like to update you on this.
Today, I sold the majority of my stock holdings and that includes some large positions I lately built in PFE and BIIB that I cover in another thread. If you read my posts on SP500 you will see that I designated a target of 6200-6400 for this market cycle and it remains on the cards.
However, I believe that we see a Potemkin village that would present a rosie situation built exactly for the US voter. I have seen a very similar situation in Greece back in 2000. The vast majority of the SP500 stocks is bleeding but the index is breaking one record after the other. This is because the SP500 is being kept hostage from a very limited number of stocks, namely, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft.
I positioned my self very well in 2022 and the beginning of 2023 when everyone was shouting about a recession. In the beginning I outperformed the SP500 based on Netflix and META stocks but when I enriched the number of stocks I failed to keep up with the SP500 index. These last months, I m finding my self lagging, even losing money, when the SP500 is advancing in new heights.
This situation reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia.
As I explained in the Bitcoin thread, market participants are blindly following certain narratives that I m not ready to subscribe under. So the situation for me would be perfectly described like picking up pennies in front of the stream roller.
Notice, the targets for SP500 could very well be achieved, but this will happen only because of these 2-3 stocks, not because of a healthy situation. At this point in time I find it pure gamble to buy these 2-3 stocks and enjoy their potential. Thus, I select to stay out of this market.
And of course, you know what they say in these situations: Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Today, I sold the majority of my stock holdings and that includes some large positions I lately built in PFE and BIIB that I cover in another thread. If you read my posts on SP500 you will see that I designated a target of 6200-6400 for this market cycle and it remains on the cards.
However, I believe that we see a Potemkin village that would present a rosie situation built exactly for the US voter. I have seen a very similar situation in Greece back in 2000. The vast majority of the SP500 stocks is bleeding but the index is breaking one record after the other. This is because the SP500 is being kept hostage from a very limited number of stocks, namely, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft.
I positioned my self very well in 2022 and the beginning of 2023 when everyone was shouting about a recession. In the beginning I outperformed the SP500 based on Netflix and META stocks but when I enriched the number of stocks I failed to keep up with the SP500 index. These last months, I m finding my self lagging, even losing money, when the SP500 is advancing in new heights.
This situation reminds me of the 2001 top, when most stocks were bleeding but the market was keep running because of Cisco. In the end, Cisco collapsed and followed the example of the rest of the market. Well, in my eyes, today’s Cisco is Nvidia.
As I explained in the Bitcoin thread, market participants are blindly following certain narratives that I m not ready to subscribe under. So the situation for me would be perfectly described like picking up pennies in front of the stream roller.
Notice, the targets for SP500 could very well be achieved, but this will happen only because of these 2-3 stocks, not because of a healthy situation. At this point in time I find it pure gamble to buy these 2-3 stocks and enjoy their potential. Thus, I select to stay out of this market.
And of course, you know what they say in these situations: Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
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- Lumberjack
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
Once again, thank you for the informative update, always appreciated, even when it is time to stop the party.
Now when you sold a lot of your positions lately, is it to early to speak about the next cycle? Or in general what now?
With your own analyses, why not become the stream roller and short the S&P500?
Now when you sold a lot of your positions lately, is it to early to speak about the next cycle? Or in general what now?
With your own analyses, why not become the stream roller and short the S&P500?
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arbusers
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I am not one of these 5 (five) in total people who can successfully short the market.
Let's see if this cycle is ended first. Maybe it is not. Maybe I get in the market again, or maybe I stay in the sidewalk (or the pavement as they say in the UK). The turning points are always points of maximum uncertainty, and I can never be sure being wrong or right before the market proves me wrong or right. Usually, this takes time.
Re: S&P500 value zones identified
Lumberjack wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:57 amOnce again, thank you for the informative update, always appreciated, even when it is time to stop the party.
Now when you sold a lot of your positions lately, is it to early to speak about the next cycle? Or in general what now?
With your own analyses, why not become the stream roller and short the S&P500?
I am not one of these 5 (five) in total people who can successfully short the market.
Let's see if this cycle is ended first. Maybe it is not. Maybe I get in the market again, or maybe I stay in the sidewalk (or the pavement as they say in the UK). The turning points are always points of maximum uncertainty, and I can never be sure being wrong or right before the market proves me wrong or right. Usually, this takes time.
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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
In this post I would like to answer to a very specific question.
What caused yesterday’s collapse?
Well, the usual talking heads are again bullsh.tting us with various explanations and narratives. Don’t fall for them.
What caused the collapse is the announcement that Warren Buffet sits on a record amount of cash, after selling his key positions in companies like Apple.
Market understood this investing legend is no longer trusting the narrative of the Bull market.
It is not technical or anything else.
What caused yesterday’s collapse?
Well, the usual talking heads are again bullsh.tting us with various explanations and narratives. Don’t fall for them.
What caused the collapse is the announcement that Warren Buffet sits on a record amount of cash, after selling his key positions in companies like Apple.
Market understood this investing legend is no longer trusting the narrative of the Bull market.
It is not technical or anything else.
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