Arbusers

I think that everything was better in February 2020 than in May 2022. In that time, we didn't have corona, and we didn't have war, and inflation.
In my opinion things are now worse than two years ago, so we should wait at least for the price that we had in February 2020, that was 3200 points. But, who knows...i don't really know about this investments.

I expect this to go further down when the recession is declared. Then I expect the FED to backtrack on rate hikes. Only then I expect the market to bounce. But no one knows, we will see. I wonder if there is any TA which could find justification for the current behavior. I don't think so though, no TA can predict COVID crisis followed by supply chain crisis followed by a war in Europe. All of this affects investors, no matter what any theory says. I think what we are seeing in the market is partially caused by a huge influx of irrational investors.

I am sure in one thing though - should Russia and Ukraine agree on peace, everybody is going to go crazy in stocks. A night or two before this theoretical peace deal is going to be the perfect opportunity to buy the dip.

dejancg wrote: I expect this to go further down when the recession is declared. Then I expect the FED to backtrack on rate hikes. Only then I expect the market to bounce. But no one knows, we will see. I wonder if there is any TA which could find justification for the current behavior. I don't think so though, no TA can predict COVID crisis followed by supply chain crisis followed by a war in Europe. All of this affects investors, no matter what any theory says. I think what we are seeing in the market is partially caused by a huge influx of irrational investors.

I am sure in one thing though - should Russia and Ukraine agree on peace, everybody is going to go crazy in stocks. A night or two before this theoretical peace deal is going to be the perfect opportunity to buy the dip.

As you see, Elliott wave theory correctly predicted the end of the super cycle. Here is the graph I uploaded months ago. My feeling is that many investors (including me) were expecting something like this. January 1st found me with 0 stocks.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:27 pm

For those who study the Elliott Wave Theory, I am uploading a very interesting analysis coming from Robert Prechter. I 've been following Prechter since 2007 and I must say he is a constant bear, and he lost the wildest Bull Market of our times. Who ever follows his advise lost a lot of potential profits.
However, his observation on the following graph is undeniable. Let's see how it plays out.

Fibo.png (223.5 KiB) Viewed 1183 times

As for Covid19, that was a meteorite that no-one could predict. Therefore, the market itself did not recognised Covid crash as an end of a cycle.

My understanding of the war, is that we are in a dead lock, and absolutely no-one will allow Ukraine to sign any kind of deal right now.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu May 19, 2022 2:20 pm

My understanding of the war, is that we are in a dead lock, and absolutely no-one will allow Ukraine to sign any kind of deal right now.

I totally agree with this statement.

Lumberjack wrote: ↑

Thu May 19, 2022 10:12 am

S&P 500 just took another big drop.
Soon time to get in?

Impossible to predict a bottom. Adding monthly to your buys is the best way to go. (Drip feeding/DCA).

There is negative news everywhere so I'm not discounting another drop of anywhere between 10-25%. One thing I read was to beware of relief rallies where markets recover a fair few percentage points before dropping right back down. With the stock market you have to be prepared to play the long game and ride out the ups and downs. Have a 5+ year investing outlook and only invest money you won't need in the short term.

A couple of members requested my opinion on SP500.

If you read this thread from the very beginning, you will see that I failed to identify the value zones of this index as I was expecting much lower prices that were never materialised during the pandemics.
On the contrary, the Elliott Wave Theory predicted to the day the end of the super cycle at the end of 2021. Have a look at the Prechter graph I uploaded twice in this thread.

For the time being, I will present the broader picture that I believe we are in, in the following graph:


Why are we at the end of the super cycle?
1. Because the last cycle was one of the longest in history, that took 13 years to evolve when the average cycle lasts just 7.
2. Because we have a monstrous negative divergence between the RSI and the actual price that formatted in the last 4 years.
3. Because the last leg of the move upwards was parabolic and represented the exuberance of people who were buying defaulted companies (Herz) like no tomorrow.

I could go on for long, but these are the most important factors right now.

And what is it that makes me believe the fall is not ended yet?
Well, it is again our loyal RSI. At every bottom it went well bellow 30 and it came with positive divergence that allowed the prudent investors to position them selves. The current price is now at 42 (it slightly touched 30 some days ago) and so far no positive divergence is formatted.

In the end, it is the public positions like Jeremy Grantham who calls for the real McCoy, and the way various state fed entrepreneurs like Elon Musk communicates with meme investors that makes me believe the bottom is yet to come.

At this point in time, I am not able to imagine what is the next field of economy that will fit in a persuasive and convincing narrative, leading the next super cycle. That makes me think I should address a big number of stocks and examine them individually, before creating an investing basket that would outperform the market.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Very quickly, and not a financial advise.

It seems to me that someone with an horizon of at least some months, is safe to buy growth US stocks. There are discounts in the market right now, and many stocks are very much undervalued. I m a clear buyer these last weeks. This is the reason why I m silent in the forum lately and I avoid commenting to an extend. My analysis and the transactions are sucking my time.

I do not buy the narratives. Narratives are there to full you. Latest narrative, inflation, hedges, the FED etc. These are retro already. I m simply following my TA as implemented in individual stocks. You should not use the SP500 or any other US market as a reference to buy stocks outside the US. The US markets are in a different pace compared to Europe and other parts of the world.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:31 pm

Very quickly, and not a financial advise.

It seems to me that someone with an horizon of at least some months, is safe to buy growth US stocks. There are discounts in the market right now, and many stocks are very much undervalued. I m a clear buyer these last weeks. This is the reason why I m silent in the forum lately and I avoid commenting to an extend. My analysis and the transactions are sucking my time.

I do not buy the narratives. Narratives are there to full you. Latest narrative, inflation, hedges, the FED etc. These are retro already. I m simply following my TA as implemented in individual stocks. You should not use the SP500 or any other US market as a reference to buy stocks outside the US. The US markets are in a different pace compared to Europe and other parts of the world.

appreciate your updates as usually - thanks.

In extension of the US stocks and the US market in generel do you then have a comment on the US dollar and it's valuation? I mean maybe its time to buy those stocks in Euro? Personally it's more a feeling than a technical analysis, it just seems naturally to me that Euro will bounce back as a matter of time.

It is logic to assume the the USD will start depreciating. However, I dont see any reason why buying these stocks in other currency than USD. The price appreciation from the stocks, will be bigger from the price depreciation of the USD.

Just to make my self clear, I am talking about growth stocks and not the SP as a whole. More importantly, these stocks should not only be the well known stocks the planet is talking about.

Hello arbusers, I've been drip feeding into the s&p500 and the msci world index. Initially the market was down but the last few days it's all gone positive.

I want to buy some individual stocks aswell but I know nothing about how to pick them. Could you share which ones you bought please?

I am sorry. You are asking me to release the mental work of 1000s of hours as a free meal to everyone. This is not how this world works. I made an exception in BTC and I don't intent to make a second.
Alternatively, you could search which stocks are considered as growth and then pick up some of them on your own.

I found this in Investopedia:

A growth stock is any share in a company that is anticipated to grow at a rate significantly above the average growth for the market. These stocks generally do not pay dividends. This is because the issuers of growth stocks are usually companies that want to reinvest any earnings they accrue in order to accelerate growth in the short term. When investors invest in growth stocks, they anticipate that they will earn money through capital gains when they eventually sell their shares in the future.

Facebook, Netflix, Amazon are the first coming to my mind.

It looks very good today. More and more TA signals are confirming the trend for Growth stocks.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:46 pm

It looks very good today. More and more TA signals are confirming the trend for Growth stocks.

You said you would not speak about individual stocks, which is understandable, but if you should pick an Index right now, what would it be then? (With a long term horisont)

Im transfering more and more money from my betting to stocks, but I do not have time neither skills to research or pick individual stocks.

Find the definition of growth stocks. According to investopedia...

''A growth stock is any share in a company that is anticipated to grow at a rate significantly above the average growth for the market. These stocks generally do not pay dividends. This is because the issuers of growth stocks are usually companies that want to reinvest any earnings they accrue in order to accelerate growth in the short term. When investors invest in growth stocks, they anticipate that they will earn money through capital gains when they eventually sell their shares in the future.

Then find the most popular growth stocks that do not pay dividends. Google will help you. Do your own analysis upon these stocks, and bingo.