Arbusers

Rivaldo's appearance was marketing strike for the Greek soccer. Rehhagel's work also. Many soccer abilities and behind scenes specificities become more visible outside Greece.

Lately teams like Volos NFC may create some opportunities for smart opt-in. That team had good preseason play. Spaniard coach recruited, core built by many Argentinian players, relative good team for their level.
In terms of hidden value surprisingly were published non-real odds for their visit vs. PAOK. After 5-th round PAOK team was 1-st, Volos team after very good matches occupied 2-nd position backed by superior attack so far. Downside - below average defence strenght. 4:1 after first half and Volos' guns in effect after the pause, 4:4 afterwards.

Today Volos (non good recent form) visited the dominant Olympiacos. 1-st team vs. 7-th one, normal odds prematch regarding pre-analysis. But the penalty opportunity for visitors plus a very few strike possibilities for Olympiacos during most of the time play and other observations gave some value bet opportunities and trading ones. After 85' there were scored three goals, 2:1 in the end.

And what is the suggestion here?
I noticed your other post about Tottenham, but all this info must be materialised to an operating procedure and eventually...cash.

My style of work contains of strong fundamental analysis (very long time sport observations) and a technical one. Rarely only one of them, if situation is exceptional and must play immediately.
Let's say decades of observations might give all of you Wenger's-like sight for many people and teams around.
Very strong sport knowledge for almost everything around helps us to shape what's expected during playtime, during championship etc. At this moment, based on our experience, we act like tipsters or like sport team specialists and nothing else.
But unlike tipsters and team managers, in betting thing more tasks must be done, similar to CFD's approach. Cash-in is a derivative, but independent from the basic asset - pure sport event.
Stats, the probability theory, technical data analysis (pre- and in-play) may create much larger picture and entry points, exit ones and so forth. Not to mention colossal tasks about wagering methods assessments and constant updatind all the info.

And now I'll switch to your questions.

In terms of value finding, I'm interested in many things and among them are potential exploding "Underdogs'' like Volos NFC. Established 2017, already in top Hellas tier, strong staff for their level like Sotiris Ninis, Abascal, some players from Argentinian's Superliga and Primera Nacional.
Billiant start of the current season and inadequate prematch odds vs PAOK in my eyes. My decision was not to enter prematch for value. After first half bookies' "predictions" were right. In second half decided to enter that event. Due to host and visitor's behavior on the pitch, interesting volumes/limits and graphics on the platforms, there were some entry points for trading on 1x2 and value betting on goals and maybe 1x2 and Asian handicap's markets. Sometimes behind scenes factors in their soccer appear (mainly in lower tiers indeed), I've chosen not to participate more in that event. Not to mention turnaround 4:5 was possible in the end...
That match was Volos' peak so far in 2021/2022 Super League. Poor performance for them afterwards.

The second match that I've mentioned vs. Olympiacos, there was no value in prematch odds (1x2 market) regarding pre analysis. But after strong Olympiacos' domestic serie lately (last mastery away vs AEK Athens) and modest win vs Fenerbahce, they are participating in several tournament yet. My stats data signalled possible economical play in Piraeus for win and some value on Under and Asian handicap's markets. For some reasons I didn't enter prematch. After missed penalty kick in Dog's favor and some Fav's attacks, there were no dangerous events until last minutes. The value for Under and AH's markets disappeared. During second half, the model triggered good signals for trading (1x2 market).

Some market entries, recently triggered by model in similar matches (strong Fav and underestimated Dog according to prematch odds):

Champions League Qualification - Olympiacos vs Ludogorets (generated in first leg in Piraeus only, second one I didn't even touch! Dambrauskas' good work added good layer to fundamental pre analysis);

Volleyball Champions League Qualification - Olympiacos vs Hebar (second leg in Piraeus huge value, Camillo Placi's staff at the helm always might add value);

AFC Champions League 2021 - Pohang's appearances vs Cerezo Osaka, Nagoya Grampus and amazing second half vs heavy favorite Ulsan Hyundai at semifinal.

Recall also Redknapp's Portsmouth, Allardyce's Bolton, Redknapp's Spurs (value possibilities after Ramos' departure), Gould and Jones' Wimbledon etc. If somebody have a successful experience with them, may let us know. I will try to backtest these ones, if possible...
Not to mention Ranieri's blue Kingdom and Rodgers' one partially.

Regardin' Tottenham in your question,
As every bettor knows well, various cup's competitions are slightly different for many first class teams teams unlike others. Some Spurs' crazy appearances last years:
Vs Everton away, FA Cup (5:4 defeat),
Vs Norwich as host, FA Cup 1:1 after ET, eliminated;
Vs Colchester(4-th tier!) away, EFL Cup, heavy favorite somewhere in 1.15 - 1.2 range odds in their favor, 0:0 after ET and eliminated after penalties.

Based on the the pitch's events, exchange graphics and data analysis in-play, immediately after 1st goal and missed attack chance in host's favor there were trading points. At some moment value appeared for Spurs' victory in my model, regardless current result.

Second visit days later in NM was much easier for them, with some entry signals.
Third visit in BG later, there were only a few entry points prematch in some agencies due to slight higher odds for some time according to pre analysis. Didn't touch the event.

Markets and bookies were awaiting for Spurs' turnaround in Zagreb several months ago, huge volumes on the exchanges...

Against Mura several days ago I've spotted BTTS value somewhere after substitutions done. Short time trading and risky opportunities after the red card given, and so forth.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:32 pm

Based on the the pitch's events, exchange graphics and data analysis in-play, immediately after 1st goal and missed attack chance in host's favor there were trading points. At some moment value appeared for Spurs' victory in my model, regardless current result.

I mean Spurs' visit vs Lokomotiv. Apologize for mistakes in posts if any, I don't need to hurry up...

What are the figures of your betting, and where do you get data from?

Hi again,
I've read your post. I'm a little busy right now and I'll switch-in as soon as possible.

@ Arbusers,
In brief - 4 figures max nowadays. Info - all the available around the World.

Regarding info - mostly on the Internet, but quality perception filter is mandatory. Fake news and rumours may killing your business.
Yet another possible channel - the people around the Globe. Some friends also. Their impressions for local sport, economy, attitude of mind etc.
Sometimes these people may help you not to be trapped. I've been told a real story: in a small town in a small country, thousands miles away from the UK, there was a soccer event (domestic Cup or very low tier derby), unfamous teams, very hard battle on the pitch. So far so good. But almost in the end of the playtime an absurd situation became on the ground. All the players there, including the referee, synchronous helped for result change. A man in the UK told someone that UK bookie "suddenly" included that event on their platform at 88' of the match... I have no words for that... Beware...
After starting Covid pandemic, many things changed and the big picture is not the same.
Stories for shady events and bookies are amongst the reasons for lowering my wagers...
Indirect info channels are money flow, various graphics, odds movements and so on.

Again about figures. Seldom maximum. Lower wagers usually. Much lower if testin' something. It's up to situation indeed: If Kelly/Vince-like approaches chosen, If value wager or trading position, If danger of any kind detected and many more.

Volos attracted my attention for the third time this season, due to early pre-analysis, involving their match away vs Lamia.
Volos were massive underperformers several games in a row after destroying their 2-nd position, while Lamia had very decent performance for their level away vs PAOK last round, especially in the first half.

My projected odds for 1x2, handicaps and for other markets in that event (Lamia vs Volos) are slightly different from published ones. But I am not a tipster, so my business decisions are not taken yet. I'm awaiting stronger value among bookies' offers next 12 hours. If that doesn't happen, I'll wait for announcement about starting line-ups. This event is very good for trading in-play due to some most expected scenarios based on pre-analysis.

I am very much impressed by Volos team as the quality is not reflecting to the table of the championship.
Definitely a very underrated team.

Exactly. My approach in that case - just waiting discrepancies between correct bookies odds and Volos' real probabilities and when signals appear, act accordingly. Nothing extraordinary.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:32 pm

Some Spurs' crazy appearances last years:
Vs Everton away, FA Cup (5:4 defeat),
Vs Norwich as host, FA Cup 1:1 after ET, eliminated;
Vs Colchester(4-th tier!) away, EFL Cup, heavy favorite somewhere in 1.15 - 1.2 range odds in their favor, 0:0 after ET and eliminated after penalties.

First 69 or 70 minutes were awful for The Spurs vs Morecambe. Visitors have got most terrible defence in the League One. Similarities to other events in statistical view of point for the period till 70'. When Kane and Moura came in play, Conte avoided the fall. Somewhere in between (due to some triggers) was ideal time for entry, provided that stakes're not generous on some markets at given bookies.
The big question is how sustainable is the model now and in the future? In the soccer history there isn't so big statistics sample as people want and errors must be estimated and avoided.

One of the most interesting teams in terms of betting is PAOK Thessaloniki. Very classy team, currently fighting for second place vs AEK Athens and maybe PAO in the term of that season (as of January 2022), but as seen many times so far, matchday they produced a lack of their realized possibilities in front of the more goals scored. When that team adjusted their guns properly, is one, but most of the time value spotted was on the Under market.
First half the goalkeeper of the Panetolikos team saved 7 or 8 shots, unbelievable. When combined, statistics processing of the data of PAOK performings, plus Lucescu's tactics more of the time may produce some value, if you properly caught some odds. At the time of that posting, despite plenty of possibilities in front of the gunners, only 1:0 was produced by both teams.

Minutes ago, PAOK Thessaloniki vs AEK Athens, green laser beams somewhere from the stands tried to disturb the players on the pitch. Disgusting behavior from someone hidden behind the anonymity, all the pleasure from watching the fine soccer performance from both the teams simply disappeared...