Arbusers

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 28, 2024 3:54 pm

PAS is my favourite Greek team, it is a pity these 2 historical teams are playing in the 2nd category. Was wondering what the volumes would be, and if these volumes would allow sufficient trading according to your analysis.

Giannina are pretty OK, indeed,

When I choose to watch similar teams again in this Wonderful division (I mean a Statistically wonderful league, the variance of some observable variable I'm interested in is usually in great internal order and a combination of some unexpected deviation plus "strange" behavior of some players on the pitch, those alert me to choose not to participate), I may choose to write some things again in the Thread.
I miss easy statistical processing teams like Almopos. The AEK B team is good for that at the moment.

About volumes on exchanges, no. But some such as Pinny, Sing and many more are easy to attack.

Super League 2 North, PAOK B vs Makedonikos is close to the end right now,

The asynchronous errors regarding the connection between the PAOK B departments on the pitch led to a very effective play by Neapolis and a quick goal scored. Later home team woke up.
After Thessaloniki leveled the score at the end of the 1st half, I quit the market to preserve some things achieved.
The Model didn't trigger very clear further positions till the end of today's game.

I'm impressed why the same typical "wannabe" errors in terms of connection and slow decisions were spotted yesterday in PAOK vs Steaua (FCSB) București, I think SBO had its own opinion yesterday in that match and allowed high-stakes positions and re-bets in the moments when Pinnacle locked some markets yesterday.

Today SBO offered odds, close to true implied probabilities for the correct score 1st Half (close to my ones), but the margin in the SL2 is awful.

So, I think that when observers have an opinion on what is expected in a given market in terms of the most likely outcome, sometimes some soccer-focused agencies may be the quickest to offer the desired implied probabilities, but the big margin problem remains...

Wondering how a team can play against... itself?

Let's just say they don't show the full potential they have in the beginning, it's hard later ( vs. FCSB) or maybe easy (vs. Neapolis).

Sometimes Santa Claus comes early.
While Volos' very late goal away vs Panaitolikos yesterday, as well as Panserraikos' win vs AEK Athens, were subject to long-term Logic (I mean probabilistic-backed triggers, followed certain custom-made market curves), I personally wouldn't advise holding current market positions after Yablonsky's goal for Tripolis vs Olympiakos, scored a few minutes ago...

Addendum:

Asteras vs Piraeus ended a few minutes ago,
I personally decided to hedge the assigned current aggregate positions before the second half and it was not the best short-term decision on my part (at least 8 dangerous attacks tried to damage the current AH in the second half).
In the long run, however, this is more than good.

Your moves today?

youtube.com/watch?v=4IeESfGQX-4

Despite the bad weather, the play on the pitch is very good right now in my opinion;
It's a shame that there are low limits here, offered by Pinnacle and others.

Addendum: The goal-scoring combination (44th min) held on the right central attacking flank for PAO between #2-#7-#17-#2 was very good, reflecting the momentum.

In my humble opinion, both the Asteras Tripolis Ladies & Panathinaikos Ladies demonstrated very intensive and heart-dedicated behavior on the pitch under the rainy conditions today, which would put to shame some spoiled star Men's teams playing at an economical pace in similar conditions.
Well done, Girls!

Super League 2 North,
Very disappointed that some traditional info channels did NOT cover Diagoras vs PAOK B live, which ended a few minutes ago, but the secrecy here may be due to a reason.
Never mind, I didn't expect a goal from non-static occasions due to the collision of hard-scoring lately Dia team vs the B team whose last SL2 trend was described as a lowered elevator without any resistance.
I'm currently enjoying the highly intense performance of the Kampaniakos vs PAS match, but after the 55th minute (again, this is a minute forecasted by up-to-date tune-ups one way or another when the PAS team is involved) some strong Triggers firmly insisted on hedging the current positions, happy that Pinny did not escape.
I know I sacrificed the profits from the fourth goal today that just happened, but I'm sure in the long run this decision was better according to the settings...

Which approach to scoring goals is the best?

Attacking interconnections between the players by a high technique at medium speed to operate across the centre in a defenders-filled penalty area, as spotted days ago:

youtube.com/embed/4IeESfGQX-4?start=3355&end=3400

or a high-speed flank attack, spotted a few minutes ago:

youtube.com/embed/a8PCSz7UNis?start=3551&end=3587

Perhaps our four-legged Friends have a jokingly opinion:

youtube.com/embed/a8PCSz7UNis?start=7810&end=7846

The Soccer on the Balkan Peninsula is a very interesting area to observe, covered with illogical/irrational solutions on the pitch/behind the scenes, i.e. inserting a certain Chaos into the computational Matrices, i.e. determining the basis of the "floating" Formulas describing each observed Object, is a very difficult initial task.

I was amazed by the odds compilers, they heavily undervalued the Croatian team yesterday against the Czech Republic (see original odds), so it was a pretty good market attack vs a well-known Asian three-letter market maker's generous odds.

Today, only the Aussies had acceptable pre-match value vs. Saudi Arabia, I mention that team here due to the huge influence of the Balkan Peninsula Soccer heritage on Australia in those years - I mean not only Coach Angelos Postecoglou and current Coach Tony Popović, but also due to the roots of specific players and teams across the domestic divisions if you model Aussie Soccer in general.

Today Serbia - no calculated pre-match value at all;
Slovenia vs Bosnia & Herz - had no pre-match opinion due to lack of enough time to pre-model that game, thus I can't comment on pre-match odds here;

Greece vs Bulgaria - had no pre-match offered value in my opinion, as well as Romania vs Cyprus. But I wasn't bored at all in front of the screens, although the Romania and Greece teams were too predictable even for the odds compilers; I'm trying to forecast what would happen IF Akis Mantzios and Ivan Jovanović swapped duties.
I think no one is surprised by Jovanović today: a cautious start, over-thinking the defense as a whole, and a lazy 1stHalf with sharp attempts at the end against a helpless opponent (Panathinaikos supporters know similar moments under Coach Ivan Jovanović and player Ioannidis on the pitch, and later for Bakasetas, who imposed a strong engine on the field, but wasn't optimally integrated into the PAO team, I don't know why).
I think Mantzios would have ordered more attacking Hellenic power from the start against a fairly weak Soccer opponent like Bulgaria, combined with a more balanced defense, thus the 1stHalf Handicaps would be attractive if Akis led Greece today vs that specific opponent; but in the end, the full-time Handicap would be ≤ from the one that Jovanović's Greece achieved today. These hypotheses are based on my impressions of Aris Thessaloniki's behavior on the pitch under the leadership of Akis.
On the other hand, I'm convinced that Ivan Jovanović is much more capable of balancing the inner zones of the underdog team under his management much more optimally than Akis Mantzios. Thus, combined with Coach Mircea Lucescu's spotted pseudo-slow reaction at specific moments (in my view, Coach Lucescu usually waits for conditions X and Y to occur before ordering Z, but the efficiency of Romania's attack apparently severely suffered at that specific time interval - spotted in plethora of games) in the end generated a different match flow and probabilities for Romania vs Cyprus if Jovanović managed the visitors today.