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Some Hellas soccer impressions

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arbusers
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun May 01, 2022 7:43 pm

arb12 wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 7:02 pm
Minutes ago, PAOK Thessaloniki vs AEK Athens, green laser beams somewhere from the stands tried to disturb the players on the pitch. Disgusting behavior from someone hidden behind the anonymity, all the pleasure from watching the fine soccer performance from both the teams simply disappeared...
This is nothing. I have seen behaviours that fall into the category of comedy.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun May 08, 2022 8:01 pm

Congrats to those, who didn't catch in bookies' trap regarding poorly tuned initial odds of Aris Thessaloniki vs Olympiacos, despite the first position, the probabilities for some market outcomes are solid and hedged.
When it comes to PAOK, looks like they've neglected some responsibilities after the defeat by Marseille and almost secured 2nd position at home. Bookies weren't prepared very well for that (PAS Giannina vs PAOK).
They're awaiting PAO in the domestic Cup final.
Beware of two factors if they appear: Further PAO behavior in the Championship after the last acceleration, giving them a European appearance in the tournaments combined with PAOK's almost secured second place. I mean a hypothetic situation if PAO is somehow not sure for Europe as of the 17th of May. On the 17th and 21st, there are two matches vs PAOK.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Mon May 09, 2022 6:13 am

arb12 wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 8:01 pm
combined with PAOK's almost secured second place.

After PAOK's defeat from PAS, the 2nd place is jeopardised. I see stress coming back to PAOK a team that both management and ownership have their ways to stress both players and fans.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat May 21, 2022 5:13 pm

Someone from Athens? I have no video signal from Athens. What's happening there, why has the PAO vs PAOK - the Hellas Soccer Cup Final not started yet?
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat May 21, 2022 5:48 pm

It started now. 32 minutes of delay due to smoke.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat May 21, 2022 6:09 pm

Second stop of the game. Objects falling in the field.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:53 pm

A future game at the UEFA Conference Cup attracted my attention, Levski Sofia vs PAOK Thessaloniki.
I'm puzzled by the published odds. One way or another, these teams are known to me in terms of sporting quality.
The PAOK team hasn't yet started in the domestic Championship, therefore the players can't access the very actual Stats for the Greek team versus real opponents. The very actual assessment regarding that team couldn't be based upon the pre-season matches, where various tactical schemes and footballers are tried. Anyway, some indirect hints, based on what was seen in these friendlies, mainly vs Standard de Liège and vs AZ Alkmaar'67 also, are very useful for some very initial estimations regarding some of the PAOK's strengths and weaknesses.
On the other hand, the Levski Sofia team has participated in two rounds of their domestic Championship. The overall estimation isn't good at all. Their opening game was a big failure on the pitch (mainly the second-half performance), and the second one, despite the final result, wasn't acceptable at all in terms of game quality vs one of the weakest teams.
Despite the lack of a very large number of observed matches for both the teams in their new line-up for the new season, some initial assessments are built.
When it comes to building the strategy of betting markets' entries/exits for the upcoming first leg in Sofia on 21.07, I'm going to assign very big weights to the coaches and their decisions, and lesser weight to the players and so on. My rationale is mainly based on their style, observed over years.
In my view, Stanimir Stoilov in his coaching approach is a student of the master tactician Georgi Vasilev. Do you remember Deutscher Cup Final 2001, Schalke'04 vs Union Berlin? That year Union Berlin played in the third German tier, but Vasilev has done his job very well leading them to the UEFA tournament and the domestic Cup final.
My impression is that later Stoilov evolves some of Vasilev's approaches. Many years ago, Levski Sofia reaches the UEFA quarterfinal vs Schalke'04 under Stoilov's management. In addition, Stoilov was leading two national teams (Bulgaria and Kazakhstan) and also reached the UEFA Champions League Group stage with two low-ranked European teams from Bulgaria and Kazakhstan.
Last year, Stoilov after a long absence, took the managerial job in Levski Sofia after several consecutive defeats in the initial stage, and later stabilize the team, winning the domestic Cup, and eliminating Alan Pardew's team in the Final.
When it comes to Răzvan Lucescu, I think that the top-notch quality in his managerial decisions so far is well-known to everyone by now. Jorge Sampaoli's antidote tactics and a defensive error for PAOK vs Marseille cost him the European Semifinal months ago. When it comes to the meltdown in the last rounds of the Hellenic domestic Championship, I got the impression that some of the reasons were mainly off the pitch.
In short:
- Initially published odds for the first leg aren't a real reflection of the current situation in terms of sporting level; the potential absence of El Kaddouri and Oliveira due to injuries isn't a strong reason for these odds.
- Very recent impressions about Levski and PAOK teams allow constructing some initial assumptions in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Here I mean fundamental analysis;
- Due to the lack of a big number of matches, played by both the teams in their new line-ups, very clinical-selected technical info must be in use. Some carefully selected Stats from the past, which are not reset, may be adopted and to be added here;
- The usual set of tactical decisions, practiced by both the coaches, is well known. Stoilov has to manage the team with injuries to some key players and many players out of their optimal form;
Based on the above, one of the possible complex solutions here may include the following:
Compiling own odds, based on the pre-analysis and striving to find some value in some markets; Accepting some odds in some markets, after estimation of the probability for a given percent level of moving odds in the next days till the kick-off time; Starting line-ups must be estimated very, very quickly and initial predefined variants of the business plans for that game to be shortened; Very big weight to be assigned to the Lucescu's approach not only for the current tactical decisions on the pitch but mainly for his strategic purpose: is PAOK aiming to play much safer first leg without big risks and energy loss (that's somehow insisted by the initially published odds)? Or the Greeks will strive to press more, aiming to secure a calmer second leg? Or somewhere in the between? Their implementations?
Much lesser weight has to be assigned to Stoilov's decisions and their implementation and these ones have not to be underestimated at all, due to the fact, that Stoilov at the current moment is 99 percent of the Levski team, not the players!
In my view, the class difference is a very big one and the outcome is in PAOK's hands, even the potential negative result for them depends on the visiting team.
I'm also wondering how to estimate and later incorporate in the odds compiled on my side, the probability of every host team in the first and in the second leg maximizing their performance, due to the ban on the presence of visiting supporters. But again, in that hypothetical case, almost everything will depend on PAOK.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:27 pm

UEFA Conference League, Slavia Prague vs PAO right now.
The conditions (the tactical schemes of both teams and the currently slightly attacking team PAO) seem to suggest positions against the leading handicap line suggested by the agencies. In my opinion, one of the mandatory conditions for attacking some positions against (-0.75) AH here is the quality of the performance of the right flank of the PAO team in the next conditional time interval (ie, the left zone of Slavia, respectively). Let's see what'll happen.
Another condition is the reward/risk ratio value at this point.
Another mandatory requirement here is that the market positions should be part of the long-term haul in this collision here ie. the sum of the first and second legs here.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:54 pm

There were quite a few shrewd moves in Slavia's defense, mainly aimed at securing a place in the next round. This strong action supported by Slavia's back four and PAO's better action so far (which looks like a pure 4-3-3 most of the time so far in Athens) should be reassessed once the substitutions start in the context of the current tactics approach at these times. I wonder why the coach Jovanović is relying on so many defensive minded players on the bench after the negative result in Prague. My initial guesses on some calculated probabilities in the Moneyline market when Carlitos comes in, if it happens, if the current score is 1:0 at this point and if there will be a minimum of 15 minutes to go. Let's see if that pre-assumption will start some triggers to additional Moneyline market at all. If that happens, the Extra time is quite possible here.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:16 pm

Can anyone give us an idea why PAOK B was so misjudged against Panseraikos? The second team against the first team in the standings usually starts in intervals with other odds.
After 70 minutes of play, Panseraikos is the better team so far, but why is so an unusual difference in the published pre-match odds?
Thank you.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:27 pm

Sorry for the mistake, it's actually Panserraikos, double R.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:37 pm

arb12 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:16 pm
Can anyone give us an idea why PAOK B was so misjudged against Panseraikos? The second team against the first team in the standings usually starts in intervals with other odds.
After 70 minutes of play, Panseraikos is the better team so far, but why is so an unusual difference in the published pre-match odds?
Thank you.
Pablo lost some players like Mihailidis and Tzimas (they will be in the team of Lutsesku next Moday)
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:44 pm

surbetis wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:37 pm
Pablo lost some players like Mihailidis and Tzimas (they will be in the team of Lutsesku next Moday)

Thank you for the information.
The difference in terms of 1X2 odds suggested a falsely huge difference in class between those teams, despite the absence of some players. It was an opportunity to attack some odds. In addition, three selected Asian handicap lines (+1, +1.25 and +1.5) were skewed before the match.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:58 am

After recent events in the Super League (Volos vs. Atromitos Athinon and Aris vs. PAO), a possible solution in the search for further hidden value could be to split into two groups of teams. The first group consists of the Big Four and the second group consists of Volos and Aris Thessaloniki.

On the one hand, the closely comparable Stats Items are packed into the same group, but on the other hand, I see some opportunities to attack different markets in terms of a hidden possible value, even if teams from both groups play each other.
I remember some strange happenings at the end of last season in the second stage (The Top 6 members of the Championship Group and their psychology at the end).
Naturally, a lot of data processing and fundamental evaluations are required after each round for those six teams before the next early pre-match odds are published.

Lots of minor errors in pre-match assessments are inevitable, but not fatal provided that the risk management is reasonable unless something extraordinary happens towards the end (like Savvidis' pistol show, some behavior by Marinakis and so on).
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:50 am

So here is a question: Does it worth it diving to all this data and analysis, when there is a clear possibility and a very bad record of max fixing in a championship? Of course you could say your analysis will help you identify potential fixes, but lets see what you think.

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