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Some Hellas soccer impressions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Mon Feb 13, 2023 5:37 pm

Okay. I believe that in the Balkans, fixing is an inevitable phenomenon that occurs with varying (unknown) frequency. This keeps it viable. Just like it happens in Canadian or Czech soccer for example.

How to avoid or mitigate that threat?
- Method one. As many judiciously selected matches as possible in the same league, all the time. Thus, statistically, the bad influence of potentially suspicious games can be mitigated to some extent in the very long run.

- Method two. Long-term game observations and in-depth analyzes in various national leagues. I assure you, more and more potentially questionable games can be eliminated this way. The downside is that some legitimate games may be skipped due to false positives...

- Method three. Taking a closer look and gaining as much in-depth knowledge and experience as possible regarding some select teams for good reason. Similar to "fan with prejudice" pseudo-knowledge, but much deeper and independent, impartially. The potential downside here is only "fan-manipulated" self-knowledge, but that is avoidable by the Common Logic.

- Method Four. The informed opinion of local very informed bookies provided that it isn't a value trap. That would be a really big problem to be spotted and considered true!

- Method Five. Some published odds (or lack of those odds today!) from the legendary Minotaur bookies and whether or not they are backed up with any rationale...that analysis is your homework in my opinion.

- Method Six. The attack against the Data flow pattern for some reason. Depth analysis of local habits is required. Second Cypriote division, All Bulgarian divisions, Some Albanian and Serbian divisions, etc. The risk is very large if you don't spot their fuzzy logic on a regular basis. There is no guarantee at all... They're many inventive, indeed.
For example, the game reversal odds for some Bulgarian teams have been drastically reduced for some reason recently. Avoid them at all costs. Slavia Sofia is suspected by the big bookmakers.

- Combinations of the above.

- Others.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:37 am

The beginning of the end or maybe slow change for the "Almopos Project" as it is?

I can finally afford to tell you a few words about one of my most interesting projects lately.
A long time ago, at the beginning of the 2021/22 season, some interesting Stats data input into the model triggered some probabilities for skewed and dropping odds regarding a team in Super League 1, confirmed by tactical behavior on the pitch. That turned into the "Volos Project" (almost defunct by my side now due to the bookies' slow almost successful adjustment at some time and the low sporting form of that team, especially after van Weert's move to the AEK Athens team in Autumn 2022, and since then there has been no success in recovering important game-improvers for the Volos team).

While all eyes are watching SuperLeague 1, a small Jewel attracted my attention via the data generated. One further personal project, created by insisted data, "Almopos Project" in Super League 2 North arose gradually, but at the end of the 2021/22 season, the tests failed. I was under the impression, that factors outside pure soccer and perhaps some psychology caused that poor final series of matches in April and May 2022.

During the next 2022/23 Super League 2 North season, from the very beginning to the last match days ago vs Thesprotos, this team provided the model with many interesting raw Stats and various processing data. Many triggers appeared.
I don't want to reveal the processed data and triggers from my model, but briefly some general facts so far:
- I don't at all recall such a long series of raw data, almost constantly varying by small margins around a very stable value, unchanged for such a long time - SL2 North matchdays till to 14th one.
- I can't remember so many reliable persistently generated triggers based on model processing in such a long time - almost all matches, till the 14th match in SL2 North.
- All of the above is very strange for this quality level of competition (Second national division far outside the Top 5 quality Championships in the World), brand new trends in raw and processed data, stable and reliable, and no past data for this type of Statistics behavior at all.
Almost all data from a given time interval was very similar to that from another given interval. What stability!
In this sense, that team has so far had no known analogues in the world.

So, without past relevant data (I spot that behavior for the first time) backtests and tests, in general, were reduced. Very risky, indeed.
The margin of safety introduced here in the project due to very bad behavior on the pitch for Almopos Aridea at the end of the 2021/22 season was counterproductive here, till matchday 14th. Strange, but true! That's one of my errors here.
Note that another reason for the margin of safety here in "Almopos Project" is the small number of quality videos/live streams regarding this team. A few SL2 video signals from ERT and some streams aren't enough at all for top-notch evaluations and long observations of Almopos' tactical behavior. There's no perfect coverage by video signal like the English Premier League...
That's very important, in order to strengthen or refuse some questionable statistics by fundamental analysis or other evaluation.

And a few words about the team itself. They are young players led by a conservative and cautious coach. On the videos/streams, it seems that the fear of possible troubles/ the relegation zone is stronger than the possible evolution of the attacking department covered by the outstanding defensive department in front of Ivan Dokić. I wonder if coach Tyriakidis has developed his own version of optimal game theory, in a slightly defensive version.
Probably a very limited number of teams play very well for a very long time using 4-5-1-like options. Even those led by Héctor Cúper.

The agencies often underestimate different things in different markets regarding that team. Unbelievable! Some opportunities to capture dropping odds / value positions in various markets have come up almost every time so far.

However, I've noticed some early signs that the zenith of the "Almopos project" in that contemporary kind has been touched, and I'm considering some changes in the processing model or even a short pause on my side. Also, I think some changes in the Almopos' behavior on the pitch are possible, but I could be wrong. And besides, lately, it's harder every time than before to spot good market odds, compared with the computed by the model ones, maybe the agencies are working hard, readjusting their odds for Almopos' markets stronger than before.

I'd love to read opinions if someone is modeling and working deeply on that team and its markets.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:02 pm

SL2 North, Iraklis'08 vs Makedonikos today.

After circa the first 20 minutes of the playtime, the model importunately suggested quitting that market. That was the first time when it happened so early when the leading pre-match published AH is (-0.5).

On the other hand, another experimental setup was in effect at the same time, due to my distrust of Pinnacle's original estimate of (-0.5) AH. Another early exit signal despite the good outlook for this model setup.

While I'm analyzing exactly how the model has suspected so early some irregularities in this match further down the line, I wonder if it was a possibility to somewhat predict the percentage likelihood of the red card given much later and the unexpected result of under 1.5 goals, based on the insisted by the double settings of the model early market quitting?

Was anyone modeling that match?
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Mon May 08, 2023 1:48 pm

Episkopis Rethymno vs Rouf just finished, no words at all... Very sorry for pure sports... I hope I'm getting the wrong impression, but...
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:08 pm

The Hellenic Super League 2, Kozani vs PAOK Thessaloniki 2 at the moment.
According to the Poisson Distribution and other things, I await the leading Asian Handicap Line at the moment (-0.25) to be disturbed not before the 57th minute.
Let's see what will happen...
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 09, 2023 4:52 pm

What is this stupid nonsense? Why is Atromitos Athinon vs. PAO postponed?

I've been participating in the Hellenic Super League 2 markets all day long and now that very stupid surprise, after building a probabilistic model regarding Atromitos vs Panathinaikos... >:(
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 09, 2023 6:26 pm

Hi there,

just a quick report from Greece.

Greek referees have gone on a strike to show their support upon referee Papapetrou. He refereed the match Volos-Olympiacos on sunday 03/12/23. The final result was 2-2.

Olympiacos side had a lot of complaints regarding Papapetrou's decisions on this match. The next day ref. Papapetrou received threats against his family and his life from ''strangers '' . Papapetrou went public on these threats and the greek referees union has since been on negotiations with the greek government regarding their safety guarantee moving forward .

Until two sides reach on an agreement , consider every greek superleague's game as postponed .


Regards
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:10 pm

ProHat wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2023 6:26 pm
Hi there,

just a quick report from Greece.

Greek referees have gone on a strike to show their support upon referee Papapetrou. He refereed the match Volos-Olympiacos on sunday 03/12/23. The final result was 2-2.

Olympiacos side had a lot of complaints regarding Papapetrou's decisions on this match. The next day ref. Papapetrou received threats against his family and his life from ''strangers '' . Papapetrou went public on these threats and the greek referees union has since been on negotiations with the greek government regarding their safety guarantee moving forward .

Until two sides reach on an agreement , consider every greek superleague's game as postponed .


Regards

@ ProHat,

Thank you for your response.
Actually, I watched Volos vs. Olympiakos on video signal and remember the rejected goals and the red cards. But I had no idea about the referees' strike. Luckily SuperLeague 2 is not affected.
Thanks again for your clarification and I hope your stellar championship resumes very soon.

Regards.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun Dec 10, 2023 12:59 pm

The Hellenic Super League 2, Athens Kallithea'66 vs. PS Kalamata derby is goin' to start within minutes.

I decided a few percentages of my yesterday's profits to be re-invested more riskily here, experimenting with some things. In pursuit of some hypothetical value by my side, some positions on the Over 2.5 market accordin' to my trading plan. Also, a specific combination of the BTTS and Over 2.25 markets (trying to mitigate some risks here) was opened.
No Hang-Cheng-style positions here at all!

Action 24 has started the video signal…
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:23 pm

The very first attempt to capture hidden value in SL2 South through a new experimental approach was not successful. Why?
- No trading despite the preliminary plan, due to amplifying the hypothetical value of some positions.
- No additional positions were placed during the timeplay as usual, the triggers were rejected, also no stop loss positions were inserted.
-And others.

Reasons:
- The intention to start estimation of the Reward/Risk Ratio when it comes to some riskier things.
- My pre-estimation of the probabilities today, when it comes to the clash between probably the second-best defensive department (Ath Kall'66) and the best-attacking department (Kalam) in the SL 2 South so far.
- Attacking of some things, proposed by the Poisson/Weibull, due to specifics of that League. Highly risky, indeed.
- And so on.

Pure sporting impressions, that covered post-factum the value predictions:
- The Dynamics Rating today was higher than the Super League 2 South median.
- The cross-bar was hit circa the 11th minute, some of the goalkeepers' saves, the unclear possibility of a penalty circa the 50th minute and good attacks for that League before the late substitutions.
- And more.

Post-factum: The old market approaches are good, but the new ones have to mature and be more precise over the long term.

Your impressions of that League/Markets?
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:22 pm

Hellenic Super League 2 South at the moment,

There is little chance that PAO 2 will put their frivolous defensive department in order vs Kalamata away, and a slightly different Poisson optimization would show us the expected scored goals today.

Also, due to an early goal scored for Olympiacos 2 away to Ilioupoli, the probability was calculated regarding Olympiacos 2's addiction to the draws...
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:34 pm

From my point of view, this is the right time to hedge Under 2 in Kalamata-Panathinaikos 2 despite the hypothetical missed big value, but to invest a few percent of the profit in the hypothetical draw in the Ilioupoli vs Oly 2 clash.
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:13 pm

A quick recap before the in-depth post-analysis, aiming optimization:
2 games in SL2 South today,
- Kal vs PAO2 - won, due to risky new Poisson optimization, that triggered Under 2.00.
- Ili vs. Oly2 - lost, possibly due to mishandling of some probabilities by my side.
- Total profit achieved - yes, but not optimized at all. Why? Some hedging operations in (Kal vs PAO2) and reinvestment in large odds (Ili vs Oly2).
Anyone modelled here?
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:26 pm

Super League 1 now, Kifisias vs Giannina. 3:2 at the moment in half-time.

I'm very disappointed with what I noticed on the Cosmote's video signal, the second goal today was thanks to the perfect overcoming of the four defenders, inexplicably why they were built in one line at that moment. And the even easier third goal, the entire defensive department of the visitors was overcome with two passes through the central area...
While the battle between two of the most underperforming attacking departments vs arguably the most underperforming defensive departments in SL1 is underway, today's Model setup is still silent at that point and hasn't generated sustained triggers so far...
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Re: Some Hellas soccer impressions

Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:12 pm

The project, codenamed Achilles, is goin' to start by my side now.

Although Ivan Jovanović's work was crucial for the recent resurfacing of the submarine PAO after the long-time crisis, the faltering mentality of the current team has been spotted and well modeled for the Hellenic Title Battle (2022/23, regular season after 26th Round PAO as a leader and afterward displaced from the top position during the further Championship Group Stage by AEK's dominance), and a similar waving performance was modeled in the 2023/24 season so far (until ПАО was displaced by PAOK before Christmas' eve due to losses from Atromitos Athinon & Aris Thessaloniki), let's say the Panathinaikos' performance was very well structured into the Model so far due to Jovanović's peculiarities, mainly in defense stage.

When building the Alpha stage of the Achilles project, some of the main input estimates, Data and Stats by my side will be as follows:
- The relevance of the straightforwardness of Fatih Terim's tactics in the contemporary Hellenic SupeLeague conditions;
- The initial safety margin coefficient (Terim hasn't performed his duties for about 2 years after being sacked from Galatasaray);
- The noticeable dominance of Terim's teams when the right capable selected performers for his tactical scheme are on the pitch;
- the potential pre-estimation of the potential weakness of the defense departments, while attacking depts are missing a lot of opportunities under Terim's governance (Fiorentina, Milan, Galatasaray, Türkiye);
- The pre-assessment of the possibility or not of the PAO team to build a quality alchemy between leading players playmakers and the coach such as the duo of Rui Costa & Fatih Terim (Fiorentina, Milan); that would be the leading pre-estimate in the very short term in my opinion!
- The right estimations of the incoming transfers, managed by the new coach;
- Alberto Brignoli?
- The intensity or softness of the transition from the Jovanović's tactics to the Terim's one? In my opinion, his approach is too direct.
- The future Arrows of Paris? The irascibility for no reason and the stubbornness when tactics needed to be slightly adjusted in another direction were the things, that assaulted the Achilles so far in his previous clubs... Has he learned these lessons at the age of 70?

And last but not least - was Christmas the right time to change the coach, hand over the PAO reins to a totally different personality as a tactical scheme, under almost completed 2023/24 selection made by others, and expecting miracles for 6 months? Risks would have been much lesser 6 months ago, I think, unless at least one or two transfer cycles are done on the terms of the new technical staff and they will be given at least a middle-long run to work, accepting their dominant style of interaction...

I'm wonderin' why only the Greek version of the PAO website announces that news and the English & Spanish versions claim Jovanović is the head coach...

Your opinions?

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