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South American soccer betting!

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Re: Some Brasil Serie A prematch odds

Sun Dec 10, 2023 12:43 am

Uruguayan Primera División, Grande Finale, Extra time at the moment.

Atlético Peñarol tried to strike Liverpool seriously in the first half. I've lost the later video signal and don't know the quality of the current game (2nd half and Extra time).
But I remember Liverpool had a victory vs Atlético Peñarol in November through a minority of ball possession. Today Atlético Peñarol was much more impressive in the first half, despite their low possession.
Anyone watching the Centenario match?
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Re: Some Brasil Serie A prematch odds

Sun Dec 10, 2023 1:45 am

arb12 wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:33 pm
...
Waiting for the next Semifinal in Córdoba after a while - River Plate vs Rosario Central...

During the time window from the 22nd to the 28th minute in Córdoba due to Martín Demichelis' slightly different tactical intention and estimation of Russo's response, two handicap lines were triggered.
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Re: Some Brasil Serie A prematch odds

Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:37 am

What a day in Argentina!

Do you remember the five movies called "The Gods Must Be Crazy"?

If Alfred Hitchcock had been alive, he would directed "The Gods Must Be Crazy VI" about the nine missed penalty shoot-outs in the first Semi-final, Godoy Cruz A.T. vs Atlético Platense.

Also, David Lynch & Mark Frost would direct "The Gods Must Be Crazy VII" about the second Semi-final, River Plate vs Rosario Central - did you understand exactly how the River Plate team missed all of their penalties, and only two goals were scored from a total of seven shoot-outs today?

“The owls are not what they seem”.
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Re: Some Brasil Serie A prematch odds

Sun Dec 10, 2023 12:29 pm

arb12 wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:37 am
What a day in Argentina!

Do you remember the five movies called "The Gods Must Be Crazy"?

If Alfred Hitchcock had been alive, he would directed "The Gods Must Be Crazy VI" about the nine missed penalty shoot-outs in the first Semi-final, Godoy Cruz A.T. vs Atlético Platense.

Also, David Lynch & Mark Frost would direct "The Gods Must Be Crazy VII" about the second Semi-final, River Plate vs Rosario Central - did you understand exactly how the River Plate team missed all of their penalties, and only two goals were scored from a total of seven shoot-outs today?

“The owls are not what they seem”.
hawk would of been able to make sense of it all
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:06 pm

La Final de la Copa Chile at the moment, Colo Colo vs Magallanes.

I am under the impression, that Gustavo Quinteros hardly motivates his team lately. In the "easy" match vs Union Española in Primera División, they practically gave up the Championship.
Surprisingly the Magallanes team's attacks were very dangerous in the first half, despite Colo Colo's goal advantage, ball possession and on-the-pitch possession.
Quinteros seems to me that his next tactical move is still undecided.
In my view, closing positions in the Money Line market in order to protect some achieved results so far, and opening appropriate positions in the Corner markets is the optimal combination for the second half.

Let's see what is coming in the second half...
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:08 pm

Uruguayan Primera División, Grande Finale, Vol.3 at the moment.

Atlético Peñarol vs Liverpool Montevideo - third match within a week, WOW!
But today all the pre-markets and 45-minute in-play ones are too precise and value has not appeared...

I wonder about the possibility of the South American playoff system being incorporated into the European major leagues... The enjoyment is infinite.
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sat Feb 17, 2024 5:47 pm

The Chilean Primera División came back! :) :) :)
The Season 2024 is awaiting us, here and in other countries in South America!
The encounter Unión Española vs Colo Colo is going to start in a few hours.
ISN & Pinnacle account holders were offered excellent odds on some Asian Handicap markets here.
Several things were taken into account when calculating the true AH odds and entered into today's Model tune-ups:
- The recent stability of the Colo Colo team: The Chilean Cup won in an excellent way in December, also the excellent play in the Super Cup Final a few days ago vs Huachipato before the game suspension by the police, the good games in the Uruguayan tour in January, especially vs Liverpool Montevideo 4:3 and so on.
- Arturo Vidal's actual sporting form;
- The departure of Gustavo Quinteros due to Vélez Sarsfield and entering the new coach Jorge Almirón. In my view, Almirón will not rush the changes at all.
- I don't think the Unión Española team's old weaknesses and their known strengths from Primera División 2023 are different now. Their last sporting form in some friendlies pinpointed that.
- However, remember exactly why Colo Colo lost vs Unión Española at home in December. And also lost the Championship here.
- And a lot of other different Stats processing and personal evaluations of what is seen on the pitch.
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm

arb12 wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:26 am
South American Soccer Leagues have their own characteristics, including unusual odds compiling in some occasions. From time to time some Brazilian and Argentinian matches producing value in similar moments, provided that we recognize and avoid doubtful markets.
Sometimes there are obective sport reasons for these odds. Sometimes hardly discover the reasons, but the market is not shady. Post factum analysis reveals that.
Other occasions indicated shady events through moving odds maybe based on cash flow by insider info. Post factum analysis may reveals if game ok.

My question is about two events. I am curious of your opinion about these initial odds: Gremio vs Bragantino - held several days ago,
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras - finished minutes ago.

My simulation triggered Palmeiras value, but not good signals for Bragantino. I have to readjust some things.
Thanks.
confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:38 am

francesco wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm
confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it

Go on!
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sun Feb 18, 2024 7:40 am

arbusers wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:38 am
francesco wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm
confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it

Go on!
try to analyze and study the odds on pinnacle sport on the Brazilian Serie A championship on the under 2.5 market and on the 1X2 market, both opening and closing odds. If you want a track record on last year's Brazil Serie A I'll post the track record later
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:17 pm

francesco wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm
arb12 wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:26 am
South American Soccer Leagues have their own characteristics, including unusual odds compiling in some occasions. From time to time some Brazilian and Argentinian matches producing value in similar moments, provided that we recognize and avoid doubtful markets.
Sometimes there are obective sport reasons for these odds. Sometimes hardly discover the reasons, but the market is not shady. Post factum analysis reveals that.
Other occasions indicated shady events through moving odds maybe based on cash flow by insider info. Post factum analysis may reveals if game ok.

My question is about two events. I am curious of your opinion about these initial odds: Gremio vs Bragantino - held several days ago,
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras - finished minutes ago.

My simulation triggered Palmeiras value, but not good signals for Bragantino. I have to readjust some things.
Thanks.
confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it


Hiya Francesco,

Sorry for my late reply, I read your post much earlier today but I have been extremely busy today with lots of Cricket & Basketball (I neither recall ever seeing India beat England by 434 runs in my life, nor ever seeing Bartzokas outwit Ataman in his preferred low-scoring-style game, defensive-stable style of play ordered today and effectively DOESN'T allow him to accelerate in 3rd or 4th quarter, assuming Ataman has a much classier team at his disposal today! What a pleasure is to model pre-match and to watch later those tactical battles)!


Specifically in these two Brasil soccer matches, mentioned by you in your quote, there were errors on my part when modeling them. Why? Read the further postings published after my initial post in that thread. Read what is published by the users S3kt0r, VidaBlue and Acaciomacedo21 and you will understand.
When I model a game, I'm about to process all the data and facts about it. I miscalculated my own true odds due to a lack of very important information before the match, but this information was available to the agencies!

Outside of the two cases mentioned above, you're right there are a lot of weird offered odds. When I call those odds "weird", they're probably weird for my current Model tune-up only and not for the very big majority of users who don't compile odds at all, and who are very dependable on alert services.

When my Model compiles given odds and "weird" odds are published for the same events, there are at least three options:
1. The offered odds vs my calculated ones trigger pure value. Golden moment! Then next standard procedures according to calculate % value, risk estimations, market position sizing, and so forth.
The main problem here is the validation of the real % value prior to the match Kick-Off. As a precaution, a given pre-selected % threshold separates the real value from the doubtful one, that threshold is even far below the pseudo EV described in Item 2.
2. The offered odds indicated an "abnormal" positive value, apparently a heavy calculation error on my side. Those markets are skipped and the post-analysis and back-testings are the answer to why that happens and where are the errors.
3. The offered odds give an abnormal negative value. The same next procedures as described in Item 2.

I have some explanation for that. On the one hand, I don't follow a very big number of Brasil soccer markets (therefore my contemporary Model tune-ups are far from the perfect condition due to a lack of full coverage of plenty of data and stats updates), on the other hand, the major Brasil teams have extremely big rosters (the same case as Chelsea in the EPL during the previous season). Why? They compete not only in Brasileirão Série A, but also in various domestic State competitions and Cups, Copa Libertadores and so on. Therefore, the odds compiling of the Palmeiras team, competing with circa 35 players that season is not the same simple as if the team had 25 players. Things are much more complicated, indeed.
As a workaround, in Brasil I follow only teams I'm very familiar with. Coaches, players, Data & Stats etc.

Last but not least: the homogeneous style of play and the number of quality performers are different in the different Championships in South America. For example, there are many Argentines of various sporting qualities in Brasil, including coaches like Jorge Sampaoli, while Brasil players such as Lobato competing in Atlético Vélez Sarsfield aren't historically very often cases in Argentina, I don't know why.
Now imagine the degrees of freedom, when you need to compile the real odds in these two very different cases better than the agencies...
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:48 am

arb12 wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:17 pm
francesco wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm
arb12 wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:26 am
South American Soccer Leagues have their own characteristics, including unusual odds compiling in some occasions. From time to time some Brazilian and Argentinian matches producing value in similar moments, provided that we recognize and avoid doubtful markets.
Sometimes there are obective sport reasons for these odds. Sometimes hardly discover the reasons, but the market is not shady. Post factum analysis reveals that.
Other occasions indicated shady events through moving odds maybe based on cash flow by insider info. Post factum analysis may reveals if game ok.

My question is about two events. I am curious of your opinion about these initial odds: Gremio vs Bragantino - held several days ago,
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras - finished minutes ago.

My simulation triggered Palmeiras value, but not good signals for Bragantino. I have to readjust some things.
Thanks.
confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it


Hiya Francesco,

Sorry for my late reply, I read your post much earlier today but I have been extremely busy today with lots of Cricket & Basketball (I neither recall ever seeing India beat England by 434 runs in my life, nor ever seeing Bartzokas outwit Ataman in his preferred low-scoring-style game, defensive-stable style of play ordered today and effectively DOESN'T allow him to accelerate in 3rd or 4th quarter, assuming Ataman has a much classier team at his disposal today! What a pleasure is to model pre-match and to watch later those tactical battles)!


Specifically in these two Brasil soccer matches, mentioned by you in your quote, there were errors on my part when modeling them. Why? Read the further postings published after my initial post in that thread. Read what is published by the users S3kt0r, VidaBlue and Acaciomacedo21 and you will understand.
When I model a game, I'm about to process all the data and facts about it. I miscalculated my own true odds due to a lack of very important information before the match, but this information was available to the agencies!

Outside of the two cases mentioned above, you're right there are a lot of weird offered odds. When I call those odds "weird", they're probably weird for my current Model tune-up only and not for the very big majority of users who don't compile odds at all, and who are very dependable on alert services.

When my Model compiles given odds and "weird" odds are published for the same events, there are at least three options:
1. The offered odds vs my calculated ones trigger pure value. Golden moment! Then next standard procedures according to calculate % value, risk estimations, market position sizing, and so forth.
The main problem here is the validation of the real % value prior to the match Kick-Off. As a precaution, a given pre-selected % threshold separates the real value from the doubtful one, that threshold is even far below the pseudo EV described in Item 2.
2. The offered odds indicated an "abnormal" positive value, apparently a heavy calculation error on my side. Those markets are skipped and the post-analysis and back-testings are the answer to why that happens and where are the errors.
3. The offered odds give an abnormal negative value. The same next procedures as described in Item 2.

I have some explanation for that. On the one hand, I don't follow a very big number of Brasil soccer markets (therefore my contemporary Model tune-ups are far from the perfect condition due to a lack of full coverage of plenty of data and stats updates), on the other hand, the major Brasil teams have extremely big rosters (the same case as Chelsea in the EPL during the previous season). Why? They compete not only in Brasileirão Série A, but also in various domestic State competitions and Cups, Copa Libertadores and so on. Therefore, the odds compiling of the Palmeiras team, competing with circa 35 players that season is not the same simple as if the team had 25 players. Things are much more complicated, indeed.
As a workaround, in Brasil I follow only teams I'm very familiar with. Coaches, players, Data & Stats etc.

Last but not least: the homogeneous style of play and the number of quality performers are different in the different Championships in South America. For example, there are many Argentines of various sporting qualities in Brasil, including coaches like Jorge Sampaoli, while Brasil players such as Lobato competing in Atlético Vélez Sarsfield aren't historically very often cases in Argentina, I don't know why.
Now imagine the degrees of freedom, when you need to compile the real odds in these two very different cases better than the agencies...
Sorry, I explained myself poorly, I wasn't referring to the games you mentioned. I just said that there are valuebets in the Brazilian Serie A championship on pinnacle sports and I can confirm this in the pre-match opening and closing odds
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:13 pm

francesco wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:48 am
arb12 wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:17 pm
francesco wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:25 pm


confirmed that in the Brazilian Serie A championship there are very incorrect odds even in my statistical model. incorrect odds found in closing odds. if you allow me to say the bookmakers I can also say it


Hiya Francesco,

Sorry for my late reply, I read your post much earlier today but I have been extremely busy today with lots of Cricket & Basketball (I neither recall ever seeing India beat England by 434 runs in my life, nor ever seeing Bartzokas outwit Ataman in his preferred low-scoring-style game, defensive-stable style of play ordered today and effectively DOESN'T allow him to accelerate in 3rd or 4th quarter, assuming Ataman has a much classier team at his disposal today! What a pleasure is to model pre-match and to watch later those tactical battles)!


Specifically in these two Brasil soccer matches, mentioned by you in your quote, there were errors on my part when modeling them. Why? Read the further postings published after my initial post in that thread. Read what is published by the users S3kt0r, VidaBlue and Acaciomacedo21 and you will understand.
When I model a game, I'm about to process all the data and facts about it. I miscalculated my own true odds due to a lack of very important information before the match, but this information was available to the agencies!

Outside of the two cases mentioned above, you're right there are a lot of weird offered odds. When I call those odds "weird", they're probably weird for my current Model tune-up only and not for the very big majority of users who don't compile odds at all, and who are very dependable on alert services.

When my Model compiles given odds and "weird" odds are published for the same events, there are at least three options:
1. The offered odds vs my calculated ones trigger pure value. Golden moment! Then next standard procedures according to calculate % value, risk estimations, market position sizing, and so forth.
The main problem here is the validation of the real % value prior to the match Kick-Off. As a precaution, a given pre-selected % threshold separates the real value from the doubtful one, that threshold is even far below the pseudo EV described in Item 2.
2. The offered odds indicated an "abnormal" positive value, apparently a heavy calculation error on my side. Those markets are skipped and the post-analysis and back-testings are the answer to why that happens and where are the errors.
3. The offered odds give an abnormal negative value. The same next procedures as described in Item 2.

I have some explanation for that. On the one hand, I don't follow a very big number of Brasil soccer markets (therefore my contemporary Model tune-ups are far from the perfect condition due to a lack of full coverage of plenty of data and stats updates), on the other hand, the major Brasil teams have extremely big rosters (the same case as Chelsea in the EPL during the previous season). Why? They compete not only in Brasileirão Série A, but also in various domestic State competitions and Cups, Copa Libertadores and so on. Therefore, the odds compiling of the Palmeiras team, competing with circa 35 players that season is not the same simple as if the team had 25 players. Things are much more complicated, indeed.
As a workaround, in Brasil I follow only teams I'm very familiar with. Coaches, players, Data & Stats etc.

Last but not least: the homogeneous style of play and the number of quality performers are different in the different Championships in South America. For example, there are many Argentines of various sporting qualities in Brasil, including coaches like Jorge Sampaoli, while Brasil players such as Lobato competing in Atlético Vélez Sarsfield aren't historically very often cases in Argentina, I don't know why.
Now imagine the degrees of freedom, when you need to compile the real odds in these two very different cases better than the agencies...
Sorry, I explained myself poorly, I wasn't referring to the games you mentioned. I just said that there are valuebets in the Brazilian Serie A championship on pinnacle sports and I can confirm this in the pre-match opening and closing odds

In most of SA League matches the sharp bookie is TheGreenOne imo...
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sun Apr 21, 2024 5:59 pm

El Superclásico River Plate vs Boca Juniors is goin' to start very soon,
Those blessed to have ISN accounts probably spotted a pre-match excellent offer a few hours ago, when it comes to one of the markets.
Let's see the Pinny response :)
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Re: South American soccer betting!

Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:30 am

Copa América 2024, the QuarterFinal Uruguay vs Brasil will begin in a while.

That posting is not about pre-match analysis, aiming to build a market plan. I just want to express my admiration for the Marcelo Bielsa phenomenon: he is the last of the Mohicans, practicing the so-called "romantic Soccer".

Under Bielsa's governance, the overall performance of the Uruguay team has increased, and the attractive style of play is also quite good - for example, see the performance of the personal game of Darwin Núñez here and compare it to Darwin Núñez's efficiency under Jürgen Klopp in Liverpool, and also remember Uruguay vs Brazil 2:0 in October 2023, Argentina vs Uruguay 0:2 in November 2023.

In addition, the viability of Bielsa's ideas of direct and "romantic" old-school Soccer is highly threatened by modern extreme pragmatism among the opponent Coaches, but he somehow survived decades so far, practicing that style!

I wish all the best to 69-year-old Coach Marcelo Bielsa. Thank you Sensei for all the excitement of watching pure romantic Soccer ideas so far, a hypothetical Copa América Final against Argentina would be spectacular for Soccer lovers if it came to fruition.

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